Game Analysis

Lean – Buffalo (-9.5) over DETROIT

Lean – Over (54.5)

· The Bills beat the Browns last Sunday in Detroit but decided to fly home to Buffalo before coming back to Detroit a few days later.

· The Bills surrendered 7.5 yppp to Jacoby Brissett last week, missing key contributors at all three levels of the defense. Safety Micah Hyde and cornerback Tre’Davious White will not suit up this week. Tremaine Edmunds leads all linebackers in coverage grade by PFF but he has been ruled out. Edge defender Gregory Rousseau has a 15% pressure rate, but he will be unavailable again on Thursday.

· Buffalo edge defender Von Miller has taken 88.5% of his pass rushes against right tackles with Rousseau sidelined. Lions RT Penei Sewell ranks 19th in pass blocking efficiency.

· Bills nickelback Taron Johnson is surrendering 1.37 yards per cover snap in the slot and is the clear soft spot for Jared Goff to attack in Buffalo’s secondary. Detroit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is gaining 1.82 yards per route run in the slot (8th).

· Josh Allen is now 5-0 in domes for his career averaging 7.7 yppp. Allen’s offense is likely to top their 31 points from last week.

· The Lions have only a 4.8% sack rate (27th) and Allen will have all day to pick apart this defense.

· Wide receiver Stefon Diggs is averaging 0.62 EPA/target (2nd) and he has a favorable matchup across from Detroit backup CB Jerry Jacobs with Jeffrey Okudah out due to a concussion.

· Allen is averaging 4 scrambles per game and the Lions man coverage scheme makes them vulnerable when opposing quarterbacks decide to take off. Detroit’s defense has surrendered a league-high +27 EPA on QB scrambles this season.

· The Bills offensive line is blocking for 2.0 yards before contact per rush (3rd) and Buffalo’s ground game ranks 2nd overall by our metrics. The Lions are surrendering 0.042 EPA/rush (30th).

· Our model makes Buffalo an 11.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 57.1 points.