Game Analysis

Lean – CLEVELAND (+10.5) over Buffalo

• Shedeur Sanders has been pressured on a league-high 51 dropbacks the last two weeks.
• The Browns were missing the entire right side of the offensive line last week. RG Wyatt Teller should be back for this game, but C Ethan Pocic and RT Jack Conklin likely remain out. Chicago’s defense had 22 pressures last week, its most pressures in a single game in five seasons against Cleveland’s barren offensive line.
• Buffalo’s defense has a 61% two-high safety rate (2nd-highest) and is not going to let Sanders beat them downfield. Instead, Sanders will be forced into being consistent down to down, but he will struggle as he has a league-low 35.3% success rate.
• The Browns are targeting running backs on 21.8% of passes (5th-most), but the screens will be contained as the Bills defense is conceding just -0.15 EPA/target to opposing running backs (5th).
• Buffalo’s offense has a 44.8% rush success rate (4th), but the ground game will be limited because Cleveland’s defense is allowing only -0.14 EPA/rush (3rd).
• The Browns lead the NFL with a 33% Cover 1 rate, and the Bills do not have the receiver talent to beat man coverage. Josh Allen ranks 29th relatively against Cover 1 compared to other coverages.
• Cleveland edge rusher Myles Garrett only has 7 pressures in the last two games (27th) since the Browns lost interior defender Maliek Collins, rushing next to him. The Bills will devote extra resources to the right side of the offensive line to battle with Garrett.
• Winds upwards of 20 mph have scoring conditions projected to be about 3.5 points worse than average for this game.
• Our model makes Buffalo a 10.1-point favorite, with a predicted total of 40.8 points, and Buffalo applies to a 34-89-2 ATS situation that is based on how good their offense has been the last two weeks.