Game Analysis
CLEVELAND (-3/-2.5) vs Buffalo
It’s rare to see a 2-6 team favored by 3 over a 6-2 team, but that’s exactly what we have in this game with the main difference being strength of schedule. The Bills are +0.5 in net yards per play (8th) and the Browns are -0.1 (19th), but Cleveland ranks higher than Buffalo after compensating for each’s team’s schedule. The Bills have played the 2nd-easiest schedule in the NFL (only behind the Patriots) with their opponents about 3 points worse than average while the Browns have played the most difficult slate thus far with opponents nearly 2 points better than average.
Buffalo’s offense will continue to improve with less Frank Gore and more of Devin Singletary, who saw 65% of the carries and 100% of the backfield targets last week while gaining 140 yards from scrimmage. The Bills ground games ranks 6th despite Gore forcing only 0.11 missed tackles per rush (3rd-worst). Singletary has an advantageous matchup versus a Brown defense rated 30th against the rush and 26th defending running backs out of the backfield. More than half of Josh Allen’s targets have gone to Cole Beasley and John Brown with the latter gaining 2.05 yards per route run (14th). Beasley has a favorable matchup as Cleveland’s secondary will be without nickelback Eric Murray, who is surrendering only 0.75 yards per slot cover snap (5th). Myles Garrett has a 28% pass rush win rate but he will be neutralized by tackles Dion Dawkins and Ty Nsekhe, who have combined to concede an average pressure rate of only 3.4%.
Baker Mayfield’s top wide receivers find themselves in difficult matchups for the third-straight week. Jarvis Landry is gaining 2.21 yards per route run in the slot (3rd), but Buffalo’s defense has been better defending inside receivers since nickelback Taron Johnson returned from injury. Tre’Davious White is one of 11 qualifying cornerbacks yet to allow a touchdown and he will limit Odell Beckham. Nick Chubb is averaging 0.23 avoided tackles per rush (3rd) and Cleveland’s offense will rely on him versus a Bills rush defense ranked 29th against the run.
I’m expecting the opposing young running backs to steal the show on Sunday. Our model favors the Browns by 1.2 points, with a predicted total of 38.2 points, but Cleveland applies to some pretty good contrary angles, one of which is 64-11 ATS and plays on teams that are 4 games or more below .500 against the number against a team with a good spread record.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.1
35.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.3%
41.5%
-
Sack Rate
7.8%
8.0%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.8%
11.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
47.0%
33.2%
-
NYPP
6.0
5.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.3
25.5
-
RB YPR
4.7
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
18.9%
25.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.0%
47.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.8%
53.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
63.4
61.0
-
Early Down Succ
52.5%
46.7%
-
Succ Rate
48.1%
43.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.9%
41.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
29.2
-
Run Ratio
44.6%
41.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.0
28.4
-
Game Control
0.9
-0.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.1
33.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
39.7%
43.4%
-
Sack Rate
7.9%
9.6%
-
Int Rate
4.6%
1.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.2%
15.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
54.1%
46.6%
-
NYPP
6.0
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.4
28.8
-
RB YPR
5.1
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
22.3%
22.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.9%
46.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
54.0%
47.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.2
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
60.5
62.5
-
Early Down Succ
44.3%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
40.9%
44.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
54.8%
49.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.1
29.7
-
Run Ratio
38.6%
45.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.6
29.0
-
Game Control
-2.7
2.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NYJ |
17 – 16 W |
-7.1 |
55.3% /
42.2% |
2.6% /
8.9% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
3.4 |
48.0% /
52.4% |
20.0% /
33.3% |
5.1 /
3.2 |
63 /
66 |
54.9% /
46.8% |
52.4% /
45.5% |
50.0% /
9.9% |
5.9 /
3.4 |
3.2% /
1.5% |
39.7% /
31.8% |
22.9 /
28.4 |
| 2 |
@NYG |
28 – 14 W |
8.9 |
42.4% /
45.7% |
9.1% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
4.4% |
7.2 /
5.2 |
58.8% /
70.0% |
17.6% /
5.0% |
4.4 /
6.5 |
67 /
66 |
55.8% /
59.6% |
50.7% /
53.0% |
32.7% /
38.9% |
5.8 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.7% /
30.3% |
24.8 /
28.5 |
| 3 |
CIN |
21 – 17 W |
6.7 |
45.9% /
44.7% |
2.7% /
5.3% |
2.8% /
5.6% |
6.5 /
6.3 |
55.6% /
36.8% |
19.4% /
31.6% |
4.9 /
3.5 |
73 /
57 |
55.2% /
46.7% |
50.7% /
42.1% |
40.6% /
52.9% |
5.7 /
5.4 |
1.4% /
3.5% |
49.3% /
33.3% |
29.6 /
30.5 |
| 4 |
NE |
10 – 16 L |
-7.9 |
36.7% /
20.5% |
10.2% /
0.0% |
9.1% /
2.6% |
4.9 /
3.8 |
50.0% /
47.8% |
13.6% /
17.4% |
6.1 /
3.2 |
71 /
62 |
47.3% /
33.3% |
40.8% /
30.6% |
46.9% /
32.1% |
5.3 /
3.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.0% /
37.1% |
29.9 /
27.1 |
| 5 |
@TEN |
14 – 7 W |
2.4 |
47.2% /
40.7% |
11.1% /
18.5% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
5.6 |
55.6% /
40.7% |
14.8% /
25.9% |
4.0 /
3.8 |
63 /
54 |
58.7% /
45.0% |
50.8% /
40.7% |
34.5% /
52.0% |
5.0 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
50.0% |
30.0 /
23.3 |
| 7 |
MIA |
31 – 21 W |
0.6 |
50.0% /
55.6% |
7.1% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.7 /
7.6 |
52.2% /
50.0% |
13.0% /
33.3% |
5.1 /
3.6 |
51 /
66 |
55.0% /
52.0% |
51.0% /
53.0% |
61.3% /
45.9% |
6.0 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
45.1% /
45.5% |
30.2 /
25.5 |
| 8 |
PHI |
13 – 31 L |
-5.2 |
31.6% /
48.1% |
10.5% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
5.7 |
50.0% /
48.8% |
35.0% /
29.3% |
4.9 /
5.3 |
58 /
68 |
39.0% /
50.0% |
37.9% /
48.5% |
44.3% /
57.7% |
4.4 /
5.5 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
34.5% /
60.3% |
29.4 /
36.4 |
| 9 |
WAS |
24 – 9 W |
8.5 |
45.5% /
34.6% |
9.1% /
15.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
4.5 |
53.8% /
34.8% |
17.9% /
30.4% |
3.1 /
5.5 |
61 /
49 |
54.5% /
40.5% |
50.8% /
34.7% |
48.9% /
42.8% |
4.4 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
63.9% /
46.9% |
34.9 /
27.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
TEN |
13 – 43 L |
-7.1 |
39.5% /
35.7% |
11.6% /
14.3% |
7.9% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
7.7 |
45.0% /
50.0% |
5.0% /
21.4% |
5.1 /
4.4 |
63 /
56 |
49.0% /
50.0% |
41.3% /
42.9% |
47.4% /
67.8% |
5.5 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
50.0% |
22.6 /
34.4 |
| 2 |
@NYJ |
23 – 3 W |
12.5 |
34.2% /
25.7% |
7.9% /
11.4% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
4.8 |
28.6% /
41.7% |
38.1% /
37.5% |
3.3 /
3.9 |
59 /
59 |
33.3% /
39.5% |
32.2% /
32.2% |
74.4% /
42.4% |
6.4 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
35.6% /
40.7% |
33.6 /
18.0 |
| 3 |
LA |
13 – 20 L |
-1.5 |
38.5% /
47.5% |
7.7% /
5.0% |
2.8% /
5.3% |
4.5 /
6.4 |
37.5% /
50.0% |
25.0% /
16.7% |
4.0 /
3.8 |
63 /
64 |
40.0% /
51.0% |
38.1% /
48.4% |
44.1% /
24.1% |
4.3 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
38.1% /
37.5% |
33.1 /
26.4 |
| 4 |
@BAL |
40 – 25 W |
7.4 |
50.0% /
52.6% |
3.1% /
10.5% |
3.2% /
5.9% |
10.5 /
5.8 |
51.7% /
58.6% |
24.1% /
13.8% |
6.7 /
6.0 |
61 /
67 |
52.2% /
59.3% |
50.8% /
55.2% |
55.3% /
39.7% |
8.7 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
47.5% /
43.3% |
26.2 /
27.8 |
| 5 |
@SF |
3 – 31 L |
-18.3 |
25.0% /
41.9% |
14.3% /
6.5% |
8.3% /
0.0% |
2.8 /
5.5 |
33.3% /
37.5% |
22.2% /
20.0% |
5.7 /
6.9 |
46 /
71 |
34.3% /
40.4% |
28.3% /
39.4% |
71.1% /
52.0% |
3.9 /
6.3 |
4.3% /
0.0% |
39.1% /
56.3% |
26.1 /
34.0 |
| 6 |
SEA |
28 – 32 L |
3.3 |
45.9% /
61.1% |
0.0% /
8.3% |
8.1% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
7.9 |
50.0% /
52.6% |
20.8% /
15.8% |
6.5 /
4.5 |
61 /
74 |
48.0% /
61.0% |
47.5% /
56.8% |
48.5% /
46.9% |
6.7 /
6.1 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
39.3% /
51.4% |
36.0 /
31.8 |
| 8 |
@NE |
13 – 27 L |
-12.1 |
38.9% /
43.6% |
13.9% /
7.7% |
3.2% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
6.1 |
59.1% /
33.3% |
22.7% /
40.7% |
7.2 /
2.9 |
58 /
66 |
53.3% /
39.6% |
46.6% /
39.4% |
59.7% /
52.8% |
5.3 /
4.8 |
3.4% /
0.0% |
37.9% /
40.9% |
25.2 /
36.2 |
| 9 |
@DEN |
19 – 24 L |
-6.2 |
45.5% /
39.1% |
4.5% /
13.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
7.6 |
37.9% /
45.0% |
20.7% /
15.0% |
3.1 /
6.4 |
73 /
43 |
44.6% /
46.9% |
42.5% /
41.9% |
38.2% /
71.9% |
4.8 /
7.0 |
0.0% /
2.3% |
39.7% /
46.5% |
34.2 /
23.4 |
Buffalo Bills
@ 
Cleveland Browns