Game Analysis

BALTIMORE (-2.5) vs Buffalo

• Buffalo’s offense scored touchdowns on their first five possessions last Monday night on their way to posting 47 points on the scoreboard.
• The Bills’ offensive line is doing a great job keeping Josh Allen clean. LT Dion Dawkins has just a 2.2% pressure rate allowed (4th) and RT Spencer Brown is having a breakout season. Brown has conceded just 3 pressures (5th-fewest) and he will line up across from Baltimore edge defender Kyle Van Noy, who ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency.
• Buffalo RB James Cook is averaging 2.49 yards per route run (3rd) but the wheel routes will be contained as the Ravens are conceding a 38% pass success rate to running backs (9th). Allen will instead look to WR Khalil Shakir, who leads the NFL with 1.52 EPA/target.
• Baltimore’s outside wide receivers will be shut down by CB Rasul Douglas and CB Christian Benford, who is conceding just 0.20 yards per cover snap (2nd).
• Lamar Jackson will attack the middle of the field with TE Mark Andrews and TE Isaiah Likely, whose 69% success rate ranks 3rd. Buffalo’s defense leads the NFL with 50 snaps of Cover 2 which is most susceptible in the seams.
• Bills edge rushers Von Miller and Greg Rousseau have combined for 28 pressures. I expect Miller to disrupt Jackson more often in this matchup lined up across from Ravens right tackle Patrick Mekari, who ranks 5th-worst in pass blocking efficiency.  Rousseau will go against LT Ronnie Stanley, who ranks 10th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Baltimore RB Derrick Henry’s 12 forced missed tackles last game was the 2nd-most by a runner this season and the Ravens ground game has a 49% rush success rate (4th). Buffalo’s defense ranks 27th allowing 0.02 EPA/rush and will struggle to stop Baltimore on the ground.
• Our model favors Baltimore by 1.4 points with a predicted total of 43.8 points but I used the Ravens in my spread pool, as teams playing as well as the Bills have the last two weeks tend to suffer a letdown if they’re on the road. In fact, teams that scored 31 points or more and allowed less than 14 points in consecutive games are just 4-29 ATS on the road, including 2-28 when not an underdog of 7 points or more. Also. Lamar Jackson is 27-4-2 ATS in regular season games when not favored by 4 points or more (i.e. favored by less than 4 or as a pick or underdog).