Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Lean – BALTIMORE (-7) over Buffalo

The 2017 Bills squeaked into the playoffs despite finishing 21st in point differential, 22nd in our end-of-season power ratings, and 27th in net yards per play. It’s safe to say Buffalo was a below average team last year and significantly downgraded in the offseason starting at the most important position: quarterback. Tyrod Taylor gave the Bills league-average quarterback production last season ranking 17th in our metrics and now they will start Nathan Peterman, who rates as the worst week 1 starter of any team in the league according to our quarterback model. Taylor led the league in 2017 with just a 1.0% interception rate and Buffalo’s offense is almost certainly going to turn the ball over more this season as they will likely fall somewhere between the league average interception rate of 2.5% and Peterman’s career interception rate of 10.2%. The Bills’ offensive line last year was a bright spot, as they allowed the second-fewest pressures in the NFL, but they’ve completely overhauled that unit with the loss of former Pro-Bowl experienced center Eric Wood, four-time Pro-Bowl guard Richie Incognito and left tackle Cordy Glenn. Incognito and Glenn will be replaced in-house by backups Dion Dawkins and John Miller, while Wood will be replaced by league-average center Russell Bodine coming over from Cincinnati. The Bills dropped from the 5th-most expensive offensive line in 2017 to the 5th-cheapest offensive line this season and I expect them to be much worse – especially with an inexperience less mobile quarterback. Poor offensive line play will also affect LeSean McCoy, now 30 years old facing a possible suspension due to an off-field incident this summer. Running backs typically begin to decline after age 28 and last year was McCoy’s first season under 4 yards per rush as he is now past his prime. Buffalo’s ground game was already below average last year and now have the potential for a steep downturn.

The pathetic Bill’s offense will be challenged by a good Baltimore defense. Every defender who took a snap in 2017 is back except CB Ladarius Webb from a Ravens’ defense that allowed just 5.6 yards per pass play (4^th in the league), but I still expect them to regress. Baltimore faced an extremely soft schedule of opposing quarterbacks with half of their games featuring DeShone Kizer (x2), E.J. Manuel, Mitch Trubisky, Matt Moore, Brett Hundley, Tom Savage, and Jacoby Brissett. The secondary will be without Jimmy Smith for the first four games, which is a blow considering that he has finished top-20 in yards allowed per cover snap each of the past two seasons (we value him at about a half point). Cornerback Tavon Young is coming back after missing all last season with a torn ACL and should be solid if healthy as he surrendered just 0.98 yards per cover snap in 2016 (20^th among CBs). The uncertainty surrounding Smith and Young puts pressure on second-year cornerback Marlon Humphrey, who appears up to the task after not surrendering a touchdown his rookie season. Baltimore still looks decent in the secondary without Smith and that unit isn’t likely to be challenged by whomever Buffalo has playing quarterback.

Baltimore’s veteran quarterback Joe Flacco is coming off a bad season and will need to rely on an entirely new wide receiver core this year. Willie Snead ranked 1st in success rate among wide receivers with at least 200 targets during the 2015-2016 seasons but suspensions, injuries, and lack of playing time held him back last year. Michael Crabtree will provide a Redzone threat as his 25 receiving touchdowns the last three seasons rank 5th-most. John Brown struggled to stay on the field the past two years with a sickle cell condition but showed he’s a capable receiver when healthy with a 1000-yard season in 2015. The Ravens also used first and third round picks on tight ends in the draft. Our quarterback model rates Flacco 21^st out of 32 starting quarterbacks so he’ll need his new receivers to play up to their potential this season if the Ravens want to be a good team.

The Bills’ secondary added veteran CB Vontae Davis, who is coming off a groin injury, and it will be difficult for the two-time Pro-Bowler to replace E.J. Gaines’ production, as Gaines surrendered just 0.82 yards per cover snap last year (11^th among corners). The Bills also signed Philip Gaines to play nickelback after a season where he ranked 34th of 38 qualifying defensive backs in yards allowed per cover snap in the slot, so Buffalo figures to be even worse defending the pass this season. We have the Baltimore’s offense projected to finish 23rd this season with high-upside if Flacco’s new weapons play to their potential and they will get an easy first test this week versus Buffalo’s cornerbacks.

Baltimore RB Alex Collins finished 3rd in success rate among running backs with at least 150 attempts last season and 5-time All-Pro guard Marshal Yanda is back in the trenches after missing nearly all last season. The Ravens’ rushing attack should be pretty good and the Bills’ rush defense ranked 28th in the league in games after trading interior defender Marcell Dareus in the middle of last season. Buffalo signed DT Star Lotulelei this offseason to replace him but Lotulelei finished 88th in run stop percentage among interior defenders to see at least 100 rush snaps in 2017 and I expect Collins to find open running lanes on Sunday.

We project the Bills to finish in the bottom-3 on both sides of the ball making them the favorite to get the number 1 pick in next year’s draft. Our model favors Baltimore by 8.5 points and the Ravens’ offense has some upside potential. I will lean with Baltimore at -7 points or less.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bills
Ravens

BUF

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.2 36.6
Succ Pass Plays 41.0% 45.4%
Sack Rate 8.2% 4.8%
Int Rate 2.2% 2.6%
Deep Pass Rate 19.3% 15.3%
Big Pass Yards 34.7% 29.0%
NYPP 5.4 6.0

Rush

Rush Plays 31.5 30.6
RB YPR 3.6 3.8
Stuff Rate 27.8% 24.6%
Succ Rush Plays 41.0% 41.3%
Big Rush Yards 47.3% 52.2%
Yards Per Rush 4.1 4.0

Game

All Snaps 64.7 67.2
Early Down Succ 42.0% 47.5%
Succ Rate 40.4% 44.1%
Big Yards Rate 41.1% 38.6%
Yards Per Play 4.6 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.5 28.4
Run Ratio 48.4% 45.2%
Starting Field Pos 27.6 29.6
Game Control -1.4 1.4

Points 17.9 21.7

BAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.9 37.9
Succ Pass Plays 40.1% 40.7%
Sack Rate 4.4% 7.1%
Int Rate 2.4% 3.9%
Deep Pass Rate 14.6% 19.6%
Big Pass Yards 27.3% 39.6%
NYPP 5.3 5.6

Rush

Rush Plays 29.8 27.7
RB YPR 4.0 4.0
Stuff Rate 23.6% 24.7%
Succ Rush Plays 45.9% 39.6%
Big Rush Yards 42.6% 41.5%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 4.0

Game

All Snaps 66.8 65.6
Early Down Succ 46.3% 42.4%
Succ Rate 42.9% 40.4%
Big Yards Rate 33.8% 41.4%
Yards Per Play 4.6 4.9
Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 1.2%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.8 27.3
Run Ratio 45.0% 42.0%
Starting Field Pos 32.0 26.7
Game Control 1.7 -1.7

Points 24.7 18.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NYJ	21 – 12 W	3.8	43.3% / 37.5%	6.7% / 2.5%	3.6% / 5.1%	7.3 / 4.4	33.3% / 25.0%	24.4% / 31.3%	4.3 / 2.4	75 / 56	37.7% / 35.9%	37.3% / 33.9%	68.1% / 26.5%	5.5 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	60.0% / 28.6%	25.3 / 29.7
2	@CAR	3 – 9 L	-4.0	35.7% / 50.0%	10.7% / 15.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.8 / 4.7	21.7% / 34.5%	39.1% / 37.9%	3.0 / 2.7	51 / 67	30.6% / 44.9%	29.4% / 43.3%	20.5% / 39.1%	3.5 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	45.1% / 43.3%	21.1 / 31.3
3	DEN	26 – 16 W	1.6	50.0% / 37.2%	13.3% / 7.0%	0.0% / 5.0%	6.6 / 5.9	27.0% / 39.1%	27.0% / 26.1%	2.1 / 4.8	67 / 66	42.2% / 38.0%	37.3% / 37.9%	44.4% / 59.3%	4.1 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	55.2% / 34.8%	39.8 / 23.7
4	@ATL	23 – 17 W	2.0	43.5% / 48.8%	13.0% / 2.3%	0.0% / 4.8%	7.1 / 5.6	44.7% / 58.6%	23.7% / 27.6%	3.1 / 5.1	61 / 72	47.7% / 56.1%	44.3% / 52.8%	27.6% / 30.9%	4.6 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.4%	62.3% / 40.3%	21.9 / 25.9
5	@CIN	16 – 20 L	-3.1	32.6% / 43.2%	14.0% / 2.7%	2.7% / 5.6%	3.2 / 8.7	45.8% / 22.6%	20.8% / 22.6%	3.4 / 2.2	67 / 68	38.8% / 37.0%	37.3% / 33.8%	22.2% / 47.7%	3.3 / 5.8	0.0% / 1.5%	35.8% / 45.6%	34.8 / 25.6
7	TB	30 – 27 W	2.0	44.1% / 64.4%	2.9% / 2.2%	0.0% / 2.3%	7.7 / 8.4	42.4% / 32.0%	27.3% / 20.0%	5.2 / 2.8	67 / 70	37.3% / 52.5%	43.3% / 52.9%	65.0% / 26.4%	6.5 / 6.4	1.5% / 2.9%	49.3% / 35.7%	33.7 / 27.0
8	OAK	34 – 14 W	5.5	55.6% / 49.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 4.1%	6.1 / 6.4	45.0% / 42.9%	17.5% / 14.3%	4.2 / 3.9	67 / 63	55.3% / 51.0%	49.3% / 47.6%	48.6% / 28.9%	5.0 / 5.8	0.0% / 3.2%	59.7% / 22.2%	35.7 / 22.4
9	@NYJ	21 – 34 L	-9.6	48.9% / 42.9%	14.9% / 4.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.2 / 6.5	27.3% / 38.6%	40.9% / 29.5%	2.9 / 4.5	69 / 65	42.3% / 43.5%	42.0% / 40.0%	31.6% / 55.4%	4.4 / 5.1	4.3% / 0.0%	31.9% / 67.7%	25.2 / 38.0
10	NO	10 – 47 L	-17.6	40.0% / 44.0%	6.7% / 0.0%	3.6% / 0.0%	4.3 / 7.4	40.0% / 62.7%	46.7% / 11.8%	4.6 / 5.9	45 / 76	48.5% / 62.5%	40.0% / 56.6%	35.4% / 56.4%	4.4 / 6.4	0.0% / 1.3%	33.3% / 67.1%	21.9 / 39.7
11	@LAC	24 – 54 L	-21.2	45.0% / 56.8%	2.5% / 2.7%	12.8% / 0.0%	5.5 / 7.6	50.0% / 34.2%	36.4% / 31.6%	7.9 / 3.9	62 / 75	47.8% / 48.2%	46.8% / 45.3%	49.1% / 41.2%	6.3 / 5.8	1.6% / 0.0%	35.5% / 50.7%	21.7 / 44.0
12	@KC	16 – 10 W	5.9	45.2% / 39.5%	6.5% / 5.3%	0.0% / 2.8%	5.3 / 4.8	38.5% / 25.0%	38.5% / 30.0%	2.7 / 2.8	70 / 58	46.9% / 42.9%	41.4% / 34.5%	34.1% / 39.2%	3.9 / 4.1	0.0% / 0.0%	55.7% / 34.5%	34.8 / 21.8
13	NE	3 – 23 L	-9.1	18.4% / 54.5%	10.5% / 9.1%	2.9% / 3.3%	2.2 / 7.4	69.2% / 40.5%	11.5% / 18.9%	7.0 / 5.2	64 / 70	41.7% / 51.9%	39.1% / 47.1%	44.0% / 39.1%	4.2 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	40.6% / 52.9%	23.7 / 29.3
14	IND	13 – 7 W	3.4	33.3% / 27.3%	0.0% / 4.5%	6.7% / 0.0%	6.1 / 2.9	32.7% / 31.9%	25.0% / 29.8%	4.4 / 3.5	67 / 69	26.7% / 29.8%	32.8% / 30.4%	53.4% / 17.5%	4.8 / 3.3	1.5% / 0.0%	77.6% / 68.1%	24.7 / 35.8
15	MIA	24 – 16 W	10.0	45.2% / 40.4%	6.5% / 5.8%	0.0% / 6.1%	6.8 / 4.8	38.7% / 57.1%	25.8% / 33.3%	3.8 / 4.8	62 / 73	43.2% / 50.0%	41.9% / 45.2%	52.9% / 30.9%	5.3 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 28.8%	33.1 / 28.6
16	@NE	16 – 37 L	-2.7	40.9% / 56.7%	13.6% / 6.7%	0.0% / 3.6%	5.5 / 7.3	54.2% / 59.0%	25.0% / 7.7%	3.5 / 5.0	68 / 69	46.9% / 63.0%	45.6% / 58.0%	52.5% / 33.7%	4.8 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	35.3% / 56.5%	24.8 / 28.5
17	@MIA	22 – 16 W	11.4	48.4% / 46.7%	12.9% / 2.2%	0.0% / 2.3%	6.0 / 5.8	42.4% / 50.0%	27.3% / 22.7%	3.9 / 4.2	64 / 67	49.0% / 51.0%	45.3% / 47.8%	30.6% / 32.6%	4.9 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	51.6% / 32.8%	26.3 / 25.5
18	@JAC	3 – 10 L	-1.7	26.2% / 33.3%	4.8% / 8.3%	5.0% / 0.0%	3.2 / 3.1	43.8% / 48.6%	15.6% / 22.9%	4.1 / 4.5	74 / 59	30.9% / 50.0%	33.8% / 42.4%	18.3% / 51.5%	3.6 / 3.9	0.0% / 0.0%	43.2% / 59.3%	21.2 / 26.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CIN	20 – 0 W	11.0	27.8% / 30.6%	5.6% / 13.9%	5.9% / 12.9%	6.2 / 4.0	45.2% / 36.4%	19.0% / 22.7%	3.7 / 3.5	60 / 58	39.1% / 34.1%	40.0% / 32.8%	32.1% / 45.7%	4.5 / 3.8	0.0% / 1.7%	70.0% / 37.9%	32.2 / 30.8
2	CLE	24 – 10 W	9.4	50.0% / 31.1%	5.6% / 6.7%	2.9% / 9.5%	5.6 / 6.5	36.4% / 38.1%	27.3% / 23.8%	4.2 / 4.4	69 / 66	47.3% / 36.5%	43.5% / 33.3%	39.9% / 67.1%	4.9 / 5.8	1.4% / 1.5%	47.8% / 31.8%	33.9 / 22.3
3	@JAC	7 – 44 L	-23.9	24.1% / 54.5%	6.9% / 0.0%	7.4% / 0.0%	1.8 / 7.4	56.0% / 31.6%	20.0% / 10.5%	5.4 / 4.4	54 / 71	42.9% / 48.1%	38.9% / 42.3%	39.2% / 35.8%	3.4 / 5.8	1.9% / 0.0%	46.3% / 53.5%	24.1 / 38.5
4	PIT	9 – 26 L	-8.6	52.9% / 41.9%	7.8% / 3.2%	4.3% / 3.3%	4.0 / 6.7	46.7% / 46.5%	46.7% / 23.3%	5.5 / 4.0	66 / 74	56.9% / 45.6%	51.5% / 44.6%	25.3% / 26.4%	4.4 / 5.2	1.5% / 0.0%	22.7% / 58.1%	28.5 / 31.1
5	@OAK	30 – 17 W	11.8	42.3% / 34.5%	0.0% / 10.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.5 / 4.7	44.2% / 56.0%	9.3% / 24.0%	3.4 / 4.3	69 / 54	46.9% / 43.9%	43.5% / 44.4%	46.5% / 40.0%	5.3 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.9%	62.3% / 46.3%	34.0 / 24.9
6	CHI	24 – 27 L	-4.4	27.3% / 28.6%	6.8% / 19.0%	4.9% / 0.0%	3.8 / 5.3	46.2% / 41.8%	15.4% / 29.1%	4.8 / 4.2	70 / 76	37.3% / 42.1%	34.3% / 38.2%	21.6% / 41.1%	4.2 / 4.5	1.4% / 2.6%	37.1% / 72.4%	29.9 / 27.6
7	@MIN	16 – 24 L	-5.1	36.4% / 54.8%	11.4% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.2%	3.3 / 6.1	40.0% / 39.4%	35.0% / 27.3%	3.2 / 5.1	64 / 64	36.2% / 46.9%	37.5% / 46.9%	29.8% / 26.3%	3.3 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	31.3% / 51.6%	25.4 / 33.2
8	MIA	40 – 0 W	17.5	36.4% / 29.8%	0.0% / 6.4%	0.0% / 4.5%	5.5 / 3.2	34.9% / 26.3%	20.9% / 42.1%	4.1 / 2.4	65 / 66	42.6% / 30.6%	35.4% / 28.8%	45.0% / 41.3%	4.6 / 3.0	0.0% / 0.0%	66.2% / 28.8%	35.3 / 22.2
9	@TEN	20 – 23 L	-6.3	49.1% / 51.6%	3.6% / 9.7%	3.8% / 3.6%	4.9 / 6.0	40.9% / 36.4%	22.7% / 22.7%	3.3 / 3.3	77 / 53	47.4% / 53.8%	46.8% / 45.3%	8.2% / 49.0%	4.4 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	28.6% / 41.5%	24.8 / 34.6
11	@GB	23 – 0 W	7.6	32.3% / 38.1%	9.7% / 14.3%	3.6% / 8.3%	5.2 / 4.5	44.4% / 44.0%	25.9% / 32.0%	2.2 / 3.0	58 / 67	43.9% / 44.0%	37.9% / 40.3%	34.1% / 26.4%	3.8 / 4.0	0.0% / 3.0%	46.6% / 37.3%	46.6 / 20.1
12	HOU	23 – 16 W	2.0	32.4% / 38.5%	2.9% / 5.1%	0.0% / 5.4%	4.6 / 6.1	36.4% / 36.0%	30.3% / 32.0%	4.3 / 2.6	67 / 64	38.3% / 36.0%	34.3% / 37.5%	48.3% / 46.9%	4.4 / 4.7	0.0% / 1.6%	49.3% / 39.1%	34.3 / 20.9
13	DET	44 – 20 W	9.9	55.6% / 48.6%	0.0% / 8.1%	0.0% / 5.9%	7.5 / 7.9	46.4% / 20.8%	28.6% / 37.5%	3.6 / 3.3	64 / 61	56.0% / 39.6%	51.6% / 37.7%	38.8% / 60.8%	5.8 / 6.1	0.0% / 1.6%	43.8% / 39.3%	36.6 / 23.2
14	@PIT	38 – 39 L	-1.6	45.7% / 56.7%	2.9% / 4.5%	2.9% / 0.0%	7.5 / 7.3	65.4% / 43.8%	11.5% / 18.8%	5.8 / 3.7	61 / 83	56.9% / 50.8%	54.1% / 54.2%	49.6% / 41.3%	6.8 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	42.6% / 19.3%	26.0 / 21.0
15	@CLE	27 – 10 W	7.8	44.2% / 28.2%	2.3% / 5.1%	0.0% / 5.4%	6.5 / 3.5	57.6% / 47.4%	21.2% / 15.8%	3.0 / 6.8	76 / 58	55.4% / 34.9%	50.0% / 34.5%	39.2% / 35.3%	5.0 / 4.6	0.0% / 3.4%	43.4% / 32.8%	36.0 / 18.8
16	IND	23 – 16 W	5.1	51.3% / 45.7%	2.6% / 5.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.6 / 5.8	40.0% / 41.7%	17.1% / 20.8%	3.0 / 3.9	74 / 59	50.0% / 45.5%	45.9% / 44.1%	20.6% / 36.5%	4.4 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	47.3% / 40.7%	26.3 / 34.3
17	CIN	27 – 31 L	-5.6	33.3% / 38.6%	2.1% / 2.3%	2.1% / 0.0%	4.0 / 4.8	53.8% / 46.9%	26.9% / 12.5%	4.5 / 4.6	74 / 76	43.6% / 46.4%	40.5% / 42.1%	22.4% / 41.8%	4.2 / 4.8	0.0% / 1.3%	35.1% / 42.1%	38.4 / 23.5

Buffalo Bills @

Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Sep 9

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis