Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Lean – Over (41.5) – Baltimore (-2.5) vs TENNESSEE

Baltimore is our 4^th highest rated team and they’ve been the 2^nd best team in the NFL so far this season. However, this is the Ravens 3^rd consecutive road game and they’re coming off an overtime game last week in Cleveland. Teams playing their 3^rd consecutive road game are just 112-149-2 ATS going back to 1980, including 72-123-2 ATS if the team won at least one of the previous 2 road games (teams that lost both probably play with more desperation). Teams that played an overtime game last week are also at a bit of a disadvantage (just 47% ATS against teams not off an OT game) but I’m not going to play against the Ravens.

Tennessee’s offense ranks 29th in scoring and now Pro Bowl Left Tackle Taylor Lewan is questionable with a foot injury. However, there’s still reason for optimism for the Titans. Blaine Gabbert took about 2 games worth of snaps gaining just 4.5 yards per pass play and Marcus Mariota is likely to improve his 5.9 yards per pass play as he regains feeling in his hand. Tennessee has played in the worst conditions for scoring this season according to our numbers, mostly due to high winds, and I expect their offense to improve moving forward.

Baltimore’s scoring expectation might also be underrated by the market as they rank 11th in overall pass rate, but 2nd in our adjusted pass rate metric filtering out irrelevant plays. Six-time Pro-Bowl Guard Marshall Yanda has not allowed a sack in pass protection since week 7 of 2015 and he should limit Jurrell Casey, whose 17 pressures rank 11th among interior defensive linemen. Safety Kenny Vaccaro and Linebacker Wesley Woodyard are questionable for the Titans defense, which would open up the middle of the field for Flacco and his rookie first-round Tight End Hayden Hurst, who ran just 12 routes in his debut last week. The Ravens offense ranks 6th is our season-to-date metrics despite playing in the 3rd-worst conditions for scoring after playing in the rain twice in the first 5 weeks.

We’re seeing a low total in the market because both of these teams rank in the top 5 in scoring defense, but both offenses are underrated coming into this game and this could’ve been a play on the over if rain wasn’t expected in Nashville on Sunday. Our model favors Baltimore by 4.5 points assuming Taylor Lewan is able to play but the situation is not good for the Ravens and I’ll pass on the side. I will lean over the total, as there is still value towards the over even with the expected poor conditions factored in.

Team Stats
Game Log

Ravens
Titans

BAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 42.6 39.0
Succ Pass Plays 53.8% 44.3%
Sack Rate 5.6% 8.6%
Int Rate 1.4% 3.1%
Deep Pass Rate 16.1% 19.1%
Big Pass Yards 36.5% 39.9%
NYPP 7.3 5.8

Rush

Rush Plays 29.0 22.8
RB YPR 3.2 3.4
Stuff Rate 21.6% 30.9%
Succ Rush Plays 44.6% 34.9%
Big Rush Yards 32.3% 44.8%
Yards Per Rush 3.3 3.7

Game

All Snaps 71.6 61.8
Early Down Succ 47.2% 42.7%
Succ Rate 49.7% 41.5%
Big Yards Rate 36.1% 44.7%
Yards Per Play 5.7 4.9
Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 0.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.6 29.0
Run Ratio 40.9% 36.9%
Starting Field Pos 31.8 28.2
Game Control 4.9 -4.9

Points 26.4 15.4

TEN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 29.4 33.2
Succ Pass Plays 50.2% 50.3%
Sack Rate 7.2% 7.9%
Int Rate 3.5% 4.1%
Deep Pass Rate 14.9% 18.9%
Big Pass Yards 26.7% 27.0%
NYPP 6.4 6.6

Rush

Rush Plays 29.2 28.0
RB YPR 3.2 4.4
Stuff Rate 21.7% 17.7%
Succ Rush Plays 43.6% 46.2%
Big Rush Yards 31.7% 41.1%
Yards Per Rush 3.7 4.6

Game

All Snaps 58.6 61.2
Early Down Succ 44.6% 49.7%
Succ Rate 46.4% 47.3%
Big Yards Rate 29.4% 33.5%
Yards Per Play 5.0 5.4
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 32.2 30.8
Run Ratio 51.3% 47.2%
Starting Field Pos 27.0 29.6
Game Control -0.1 0.1

Points 16.8 17.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	BUF	47 – 3 W	25.9	42.5% / 20.5%	5.0% / 15.4%	0.0% / 6.1%	6.3 / 1.8	44.1% / 22.7%	29.4% / 31.8%	3.4 / 3.8	74 / 61	43.3% / 24.4%	43.2% / 21.3%	43.1% / 39.9%	5.0 / 2.5	1.4% / 0.0%	45.9% / 36.1%	41.3 / 30.5
2	@CIN	23 – 34 L	-11.8	49.1% / 45.2%	7.0% / 0.0%	3.8% / 0.0%	6.3 / 6.3	50.0% / 42.9%	18.2% / 28.6%	3.0 / 3.9	79 / 70	50.0% / 45.6%	49.4% / 44.3%	35.5% / 43.7%	5.4 / 5.3	1.3% / 0.0%	27.8% / 40.0%	22.6 / 36.3
3	DEN	27 – 14 W	4.7	48.8% / 45.9%	4.9% / 8.1%	0.0% / 2.9%	6.5 / 4.7	32.3% / 45.8%	19.4% / 33.3%	2.6 / 5.0	72 / 61	43.1% / 47.8%	41.7% / 45.9%	33.9% / 39.9%	4.8 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.1% / 39.3%	27.2 / 33.4
4	@PIT	26 – 14 W	6.3	47.7% / 47.9%	4.5% / 2.1%	0.0% / 2.1%	8.1 / 5.5	48.5% / 16.7%	9.1% / 25.0%	3.0 / 1.7	77 / 60	51.9% / 50.0%	48.1% / 41.7%	32.7% / 42.1%	5.9 / 4.8	1.3% / 1.7%	42.9% / 20.0%	36.8 / 21.2
5	@CLE	9 – 12 L	-0.7	80.6% / 62.1%	6.5% / 17.2%	3.4% / 4.2%	9.5 / 10.5	48.0% / 46.4%	32.0% / 35.7%	4.6 / 4.0	56 / 57	47.8% / 45.5%	66.1% / 54.4%	35.1% / 57.7%	7.3 / 7.3	1.8% / 0.0%	44.6% / 49.1%	31.4 / 19.7

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIA	17 – 27 L	-3.5	36.8% / 55.2%	0.0% / 3.4%	7.9% / 7.1%	5.8 / 7.7	44.8% / 53.3%	17.2% / 26.7%	4.0 / 4.1	67 / 59	41.2% / 66.7%	40.3% / 54.2%	17.0% / 44.3%	5.0 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 50.8%	29.2 / 35.5
2	HOU	20 – 17 W	6.4	39.1% / 48.6%	4.3% / 11.4%	0.0% / 3.2%	8.0 / 8.3	35.3% / 42.3%	14.7% / 11.5%	2.9 / 5.7	57 / 61	35.0% / 46.0%	36.8% / 45.9%	27.9% / 53.1%	5.0 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	59.6% / 42.6%	23.2 / 26.6
3	@JAC	9 – 6 W	1.5	45.8% / 37.8%	12.5% / 8.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.5 / 3.9	42.9% / 52.6%	25.7% / 15.8%	4.3 / 4.6	59 / 56	47.7% / 46.3%	44.1% / 42.9%	34.3% / 10.3%	3.9 / 4.1	0.0% / 1.8%	59.3% / 33.9%	28.2 / 23.3
4	PHI	26 – 23 W	-2.6	47.8% / 46.3%	6.5% / 7.4%	2.3% / 0.0%	7.1 / 5.8	39.1% / 36.4%	34.8% / 13.6%	3.1 / 5.3	69 / 76	47.9% / 45.9%	44.9% / 43.4%	38.9% / 41.0%	5.8 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.3%	33.3% / 28.9%	24.4 / 28.0
5	@BUF	12 – 13 L	-2.6	81.3% / 63.6%	12.5% / 9.1%	7.1% / 10.0%	7.6 / 7.2	56.0% / 46.5%	16.0% / 20.9%	4.0 / 3.3	41 / 54	51.2% / 43.8%	65.9% / 50.0%	29.0% / 18.8%	5.4 / 4.1	4.9% / 0.0%	61.0% / 79.6%	30.2 / 34.8

Baltimore Ravens @

Tennessee Titans

Sun, Oct 14

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis