Game Analysis

Lean – Under (41) – Baltimore (-4) vs PITTSBURGH

• This game will decide the AFC North and the 4 seed in the AFC.
• It’s all hands on deck for the Steelers, who are likely getting back edge rusher TJ Watt, LG Isaac Seumalo, and CB Brandin Echols. Those three are worth 3 points combined.
• Seumalo ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency.
• Pittsburgh’s defense is allowing 0.02 EPA/play (17th) but it dropped to -0.04 EPA/play in weeks 9-15 when Jalen Ramsey was primarily a free safety. Ramsey had to go back to nickelback the last couple weeks with CB Brandin Echols sidelined but Echols should be back on the field on Sunday night, and the Steelers secondary will have their preferred alignment.
• However, Pittsburgh will not be getting back wide receiver DK Metcalf, who remains suspended. The Steelers generate 0.10 more Expected Points Added per play fewer and average 1.7 more yards per play fewer without Metcalf this year. Pittsburgh’s offense is averaging less than 4 yppl with Metcalf off the field.
• Lamar Jackson will be back in uniform on Sunday night, and gauging his health is the key to this game. Jackson practiced fully this week for the first time in 2 months, but he has been playing hurt, averaging 0.11 EPA/play compared to back Tyler Huntley, averaging 0.20 EPA/play.
• Our model favors the Ravens by 4.0 points, with a predicted total of 39.0 points. The situation favors the Steelers, who apply to a 34-6-2 ATS Division underdog team trend. I used Pittsburgh in my pool.