Game Analysis

Baltimore (-4.5) vs PITTSBURGH

· There have only been two Ravens-Steelers games in the last four seasons that were decided by more than 5 points. Strangely, Lamar Jackson has only suited up for three of those eight games.

· Jackson is averaging 13 rushes per game since running back JK Dobbins was lost for the season. Jackson is gaining 6.1 yards per carry for his career, but it drops to 4.6 yards per rush versus Mike Tomlin’s defense.

· Projected starters at the beginning of the year have now combined to miss 26 games for Baltimore but Jackson will be joined on Sunday by a flock of returning Ravens. Cornerback Marlon Humphrey, left tackle Ronnie Stanley, wide receiver Odell Beckham, wide receiver Rashod Bateman, and safety Marcus Williams all return and are worth 3.6 points by our metrics.

· However, Baltimore’s offense will be without starting RT Morgan Moses which will be crucial in this matchup as Pittsburgh edge defender TJ Watt is leading the NFL with 6.0 sacks. Ravens backup tackle Patrick Mekari ranked 12th-worst in pass blocking efficiency filling in for Stanley and he is in an impossible matchup this week filling in for Moses.

· Jackson’s yards per attempt against man coverage is 51% of his ypa versus zone (31st) and the Steelers have a 30.8% man rate (8th-highest).

· Pittsburgh’s defense is allowing a league-low -0.44 EPA/target to tight ends, and they should shut down TE Mark Andrews, who has a 67% success rate (4th).

· Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada is clearly better at scheming versus man coverage. Pittsburgh’s yards per attempt versus man is 33% higher than against zone this season and the Ravens have a 31.6% man rate (6th-highest).

· Kenny Pickett will have to look downfield to exploit the man coverage because nothing is going to be open underneath. Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth is out and Baltimore’s defense is allowing only a 30% success rate when opponents target running backs (3rd).

· Our model favors the Ravens by 9.8 with a predicted total of 37.1 but matchups and technical analysis favor the Steelers, who apply to a 36-3-1 ATS subset of a 103-43-5 ATS contrary indicator. Pittsburgh is also best when they’re struggling, as they are now 38-7 ATS when they have a win percentage of less than .600 and are coming off a loss of more than 17 points.