Game Analysis

Lean – Under (49) – Baltimore (-4) vs MINNESOTA

• Minnesota’s defense had a season-high five sacks last week, and they lead the NFL with a 45% pressure rate. Baltimore’s offensive line ranks 27th in pass blocking efficiency, and they could struggle in protection on Sunday.
• The Vikings have a league-high 58% blitz rate, but Lamar Jackson leads the NFL with 2237 passing yards against the blitz since the start of last season.
• The Ravens have a 43% heavy personnel rate (2nd-highest), and it won’t phase Minnesota’s defense, which ranks 5th relatively against heavy personnel compared to lighter formations.
• Baltimore’s defense is conceding just -0.06 EPA/play since week 6 (7th) after the trade for S Alohi Gilman. It freed up All-Pro S Kyle Hamilton to line up in the box on 57% of his snaps, and he spent another 36% at slot corner.
• JJ McCarthy was not impressive in Minnesota’s win in Detroit, averaging only 3.9 yards per pass play, which drops him to just 4.6 yppp in 3 games.
• Our model favors the Ravens by 4.3 points, with a predicted total of 46.2 points, and this game applies to a 31-7-1 Under angle based on both teams being greater than 67% overs so far this season (same trend applied to Balt-Miami Under last Thursday).