Game Analysis
MINNESOTA (-5.5) vs Baltimore
Despite losing their top quarterback and top running back, the Vikings offense has been respectable because of their talented wide receivers. According to Pro Football Focus, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen rank 1st and 2nd respectively on catch rate of contested targets. This week will be a good matchup against a Ravens secondary holding opposing wide receivers to just 106 yards per game.
Baltimore’s offense has been dreadful, ranking 30th in the league at just 4.5 yards per play, but that average has been dragged down by really bad offensive execution in garbage time. In fact, I have the Ravens offense ranked 20th when filtering out plays when one team has a greater than 80% in-game win probability. Minnesota’s defense has been fortunate to hold opponents to just 25% on 3rd down, nearly 10% better than any team last season – I expect the Vikings to surrender more conversions moving forward and Baltimore’s offense could surprise people in this game. My model favors Minnesota here but Baltimore applies to a 133-50-7 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s upset loss to Chicago. I’ll pass.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.0
32.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
37.4%
36.9%
-
Sack Rate
5.4%
8.9%
-
Int Rate
4.2%
4.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
12.1%
21.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
20.8%
41.0%
-
NYPP
5.0
5.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.7
34.0
-
RB YPR
4.5
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
22.9%
22.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.8%
41.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
51.9%
43.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
64.7
66.5
-
Early Down Succ
45.1%
41.7%
-
Succ Rate
41.9%
39.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
34.1%
42.7%
-
Yards Per Play
4.4
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.3
28.1
-
Run Ratio
47.7%
50.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.4
29.2
-
Game Control
-0.8
0.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.3
37.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.2%
45.8%
-
Sack Rate
4.2%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
0.4%
3.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.8%
16.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.6%
29.5%
-
NYPP
6.9
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.0
25.2
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
24.5%
19.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.5%
35.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.8%
14.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.1
Game
-
All Snaps
65.3
62.2
-
Early Down Succ
47.4%
47.2%
-
Succ Rate
44.4%
42.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.2%
26.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.4%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.7
28.5
-
Run Ratio
45.4%
39.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.1
27.6
-
Game Control
2.4
-2.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CIN |
20 – 0 W |
11.0 |
27.8% /
30.6% |
5.6% /
13.9% |
5.9% /
12.9% |
6.2 /
4.0 |
45.2% /
36.4% |
19.0% /
22.7% |
3.7 /
3.5 |
60 /
58 |
39.1% /
34.1% |
40.0% /
32.8% |
32.1% /
45.7% |
4.5 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
70.0% /
37.9% |
32.2 /
30.8 |
| 2 |
CLE |
24 – 10 W |
9.4 |
50.0% /
31.1% |
5.6% /
6.7% |
2.9% /
9.5% |
5.6 /
6.5 |
36.4% /
38.1% |
27.3% /
23.8% |
4.2 /
4.4 |
69 /
66 |
47.3% /
36.5% |
43.5% /
33.3% |
39.9% /
67.1% |
4.9 /
5.8 |
1.4% /
1.5% |
47.8% /
31.8% |
33.9 /
22.3 |
| 3 |
@JAC |
7 – 44 L |
-23.9 |
24.1% /
54.5% |
6.9% /
0.0% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
1.8 /
7.4 |
56.0% /
31.6% |
20.0% /
10.5% |
5.4 /
4.4 |
54 /
71 |
42.9% /
48.1% |
38.9% /
42.3% |
39.2% /
35.8% |
3.4 /
5.8 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
46.3% /
53.5% |
24.1 /
38.5 |
| 4 |
PIT |
9 – 26 L |
-8.6 |
52.9% /
41.9% |
7.8% /
3.2% |
4.3% /
3.3% |
4.0 /
6.7 |
46.7% /
46.5% |
46.7% /
23.3% |
5.5 /
4.0 |
66 /
74 |
56.9% /
45.6% |
51.5% /
44.6% |
25.3% /
26.4% |
4.4 /
5.2 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
22.7% /
58.1% |
28.5 /
31.1 |
| 5 |
@OAK |
30 – 17 W |
11.8 |
42.3% /
34.5% |
0.0% /
10.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
4.7 |
44.2% /
56.0% |
9.3% /
24.0% |
3.4 /
4.3 |
69 /
54 |
46.9% /
43.9% |
43.5% /
44.4% |
46.5% /
40.0% |
5.3 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
62.3% /
46.3% |
34.0 /
24.9 |
| 6 |
CHI |
24 – 27 L |
-4.4 |
27.3% /
28.6% |
6.8% /
19.0% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
3.8 /
5.3 |
46.2% /
41.8% |
15.4% /
29.1% |
4.8 /
4.2 |
70 /
76 |
37.3% /
42.1% |
34.3% /
38.2% |
21.6% /
41.1% |
4.2 /
4.5 |
1.4% /
2.6% |
37.1% /
72.4% |
29.9 /
27.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NO |
29 – 19 W |
6.6 |
63.6% /
60.5% |
3.0% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.3 /
7.5 |
27.3% /
28.6% |
33.3% /
14.3% |
4.0 /
2.9 |
66 /
59 |
44.7% /
52.1% |
45.5% /
49.2% |
68.0% /
29.9% |
7.2 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
35.6% |
24.9 /
22.4 |
| 2 |
@PIT |
9 – 26 L |
-9.3 |
32.5% /
40.5% |
5.0% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.7 /
6.3 |
50.0% /
41.2% |
25.0% /
20.6% |
4.6 /
3.1 |
60 /
71 |
42.9% /
48.1% |
38.3% /
40.8% |
45.1% /
34.1% |
4.0 /
4.7 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
47.9% |
23.9 /
31.8 |
| 3 |
TB |
34 – 17 W |
13.1 |
63.6% /
57.1% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
7.5% |
11.2 /
7.5 |
37.5% /
44.4% |
12.5% /
11.1% |
3.2 /
2.9 |
73 /
51 |
52.7% /
60.0% |
49.3% /
54.9% |
45.3% /
16.7% |
6.8 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.8% /
17.6% |
27.3 /
24.8 |
| 4 |
DET |
7 – 14 L |
-2.8 |
40.6% /
40.5% |
6.3% /
16.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
4.2 |
63.6% /
32.4% |
9.1% /
29.4% |
4.0 /
2.9 |
54 /
71 |
55.8% /
43.4% |
50.0% /
36.6% |
42.3% /
31.1% |
5.3 /
3.6 |
5.6% /
0.0% |
40.7% /
47.9% |
25.2 /
30.0 |
| 5 |
@CHI |
20 – 17 W |
0.9 |
50.0% /
37.0% |
11.1% /
3.7% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
3.9 /
5.9 |
35.5% /
48.3% |
25.8% /
13.8% |
5.1 /
4.0 |
67 /
56 |
44.2% /
46.5% |
43.3% /
42.9% |
30.3% /
34.7% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
46.3% /
51.8% |
30.9 /
26.6 |
| 6 |
GB |
23 – 10 W |
5.9 |
44.7% /
39.0% |
0.0% /
9.8% |
2.6% /
8.1% |
6.3 /
3.8 |
35.3% /
20.8% |
41.2% /
29.2% |
3.3 /
3.0 |
72 /
65 |
43.9% /
33.3% |
40.3% /
32.3% |
46.0% /
11.5% |
4.9 /
3.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
47.2% /
36.9% |
30.2 /
30.1 |
Baltimore Ravens
@ 
Minnesota Vikings