Game Analysis
Lean – Baltimore (-6.5) vs MIAMI
The Ravens are zigging while everyone else is zagging – going all in on a modern offense focused entirely on the ground game. Baltimore brought in Greg Roman at offensive coordinator, who spent 5 seasons maximizing the talents of Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor, to teach Lamar Jackson to be an NFL quarterback. The strength of Miami’s defense is the secondary, as Xavien Howard, Reshad Jones, and Minkah Fitzpatrick are probably the three best players on the team, but having a strong secondary doesn’t mean as much versus the Ravens. Baltimore has some of the worst starting wide receivers in the league and I expect them to play a lot of 12 personnel after drafting tight ends Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews last year. The Ravens will still need Jackson to hit some deep passes, but their rushing attack is in line to have a field day against this Dolphins defense.
The strength of Baltimore’s defense is also the secondary after signing Earl Thomas, still likely the best safety in the NFL. During the last 3 seasons the Seahawks defense surrendered nearly a yard per pass play more with Thomas out of the lineup than when the star safety was in uniform. Our numbers have the Ravens defense ranked 2nd in the league and Dolphins’ QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, known to sling it deep, is likely to get eaten alive by this secondary.
The Dolphins are in complete rebuilding mode and hiring former Patriots linebacker coach Brain Flores as head coach and Chad O’Shea, who has never called plays before, at offensive coordinator are puzzling moves. Our priors have Miami with the second-worst offense and the worst defense in the league with no real difference makers on either side of the ball.
Our model favors the Ravens by 6.5 points, but I think their offense is uniquely suited to exploit the Dolphins in this matchup.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.7
38.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.3%
40.5%
-
Sack Rate
6.7%
7.4%
-
Int Rate
1.7%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.4%
19.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.8%
35.9%
-
NYPP
6.0
5.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
33.5
22.8
-
RB YPR
4.0
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
21.6%
25.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.3%
41.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.6%
37.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
70.2
61.2
-
Early Down Succ
48.5%
43.8%
-
Succ Rate
47.1%
41.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.3%
37.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
4.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.7
28.2
-
Run Ratio
47.5%
36.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
29.2
-
Game Control
2.0
-2.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
31.7
33.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.2%
47.8%
-
Sack Rate
10.5%
5.7%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
3.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.4%
20.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.0%
45.2%
-
NYPP
5.8
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.2
30.3
-
RB YPR
4.5
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
25.4%
20.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.4%
45.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.9%
48.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
4.7
Game
-
All Snaps
54.9
64.0
-
Early Down Succ
47.8%
48.8%
-
Succ Rate
43.7%
46.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.4%
47.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.9
30.6
-
Run Ratio
42.3%
47.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
28.5
-
Game Control
-3.1
3.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
BUF |
47 – 3 W |
25.9 |
42.5% / 20.5% |
5.0% / 15.4% |
0.0% / 6.1% |
6.3 / 1.8 |
44.1% / 22.7% |
29.4% / 31.8% |
3.4 / 3.8 |
74 / 61 |
43.3% / 24.4% |
43.2% / 21.3% |
43.1% / 39.9% |
5.0 / 2.5 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
45.9% / 36.1% |
41.3 / 30.5 |
2 |
@CIN |
23 – 34 L |
-11.8 |
47.5% / 45.2% |
6.8% / 0.0% |
3.6% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 6.3 |
50.0% / 42.9% |
18.2% / 28.6% |
3.0 / 3.9 |
81 / 70 |
50.0% / 45.6% |
48.1% / 44.3% |
35.5% / 43.7% |
5.2 / 5.3 |
1.2% / 0.0% |
27.2% / 40.0% |
22.6 / 36.3 |
3 |
DEN |
27 – 14 W |
4.7 |
47.6% / 45.9% |
4.8% / 8.1% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
6.3 / 4.7 |
35.7% / 45.8% |
21.4% / 33.3% |
2.8 / 5.0 |
70 / 61 |
43.1% / 47.8% |
42.9% / 45.9% |
34.2% / 39.9% |
4.9 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.0% / 39.3% |
27.2 / 33.4 |
4 |
@PIT |
26 – 14 W |
6.3 |
47.7% / 47.9% |
4.5% / 2.1% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
8.1 / 5.5 |
53.3% / 18.2% |
10.0% / 27.3% |
3.2 / 1.7 |
74 / 59 |
51.9% / 50.0% |
50.0% / 42.4% |
32.8% / 42.3% |
6.1 / 4.8 |
1.4% / 1.7% |
40.5% / 18.6% |
36.8 / 21.2 |
5 |
@CLE |
9 – 12 L |
-0.7 |
42.4% / 37.5% |
3.4% / 10.4% |
1.8% / 2.3% |
5.0 / 6.3 |
48.0% / 46.4% |
32.0% / 35.7% |
4.6 / 4.0 |
84 / 76 |
47.8% / 45.5% |
44.0% / 40.8% |
35.1% / 57.7% |
4.9 / 5.5 |
1.2% / 0.0% |
29.8% / 36.8% |
31.4 / 19.7 |
6 |
@TEN |
21 – 0 W |
13.2 |
45.9% / 26.9% |
0.0% / 42.3% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 2.0 |
45.7% / 28.6% |
28.6% / 35.7% |
3.5 / 3.9 |
72 / 40 |
37.7% / 33.3% |
45.8% / 27.5% |
44.6% / 42.5% |
5.0 / 2.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
48.6% / 35.0% |
29.9 / 21.9 |
7 |
NO |
23 – 24 L |
1.6 |
46.3% / 45.2% |
2.4% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 6.6 |
52.2% / 51.3% |
30.4% / 12.8% |
3.3 / 3.4 |
64 / 70 |
50.0% / 48.0% |
48.4% / 48.6% |
19.7% / 31.3% |
5.5 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
35.9% / 55.7% |
21.8 / 27.6 |
8 |
@CAR |
21 – 36 L |
-10.2 |
45.7% / 60.0% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
4.5% / 0.0% |
4.9 / 7.7 |
77.8% / 33.3% |
16.7% / 21.2% |
5.6 / 4.7 |
64 / 63 |
56.0% / 47.9% |
54.7% / 46.0% |
26.2% / 26.4% |
5.1 / 6.1 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
28.1% / 52.4% |
23.0 / 37.5 |
9 |
PIT |
16 – 23 L |
-6.1 |
37.5% / 51.0% |
5.0% / 2.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.1 / 5.8 |
50.0% / 48.1% |
37.5% / 14.8% |
3.8 / 4.2 |
56 / 76 |
44.2% / 45.8% |
41.1% / 50.0% |
48.3% / 27.8% |
4.7 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.6% / 35.5% |
26.0 / 23.8 |
11 |
CIN |
24 – 21 W |
1.3 |
52.4% / 39.5% |
9.5% / 2.6% |
5.3% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 5.4 |
50.0% / 37.5% |
16.7% / 31.3% |
4.9 / 3.0 |
75 / 54 |
53.6% / 38.5% |
50.7% / 38.9% |
34.0% / 56.5% |
5.4 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
72.0% / 29.6% |
31.6 / 31.5 |
12 |
OAK |
34 – 17 W |
3.9 |
42.3% / 29.7% |
3.8% / 8.1% |
8.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 4.9 |
72.1% / 52.6% |
11.6% / 21.1% |
5.6 / 3.5 |
69 / 56 |
63.0% / 42.5% |
60.9% / 37.5% |
61.1% / 44.6% |
6.0 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
62.3% / 33.9% |
24.8 / 25.5 |
13 |
@ATL |
26 – 16 W |
2.5 |
50.0% / 36.7% |
7.1% / 10.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 3.2 |
65.3% / 40.0% |
12.2% / 33.3% |
4.2 / 2.3 |
77 / 45 |
63.8% / 44.1% |
59.7% / 37.8% |
29.5% / 8.4% |
4.8 / 2.9 |
1.3% / 2.2% |
63.6% / 33.3% |
25.9 / 25.6 |
14 |
@KC |
24 – 27 L |
-1.6 |
41.4% / 53.6% |
10.3% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 1.9% |
4.2 / 6.2 |
56.4% / 55.6% |
10.3% / 25.9% |
5.1 / 3.5 |
68 / 83 |
52.8% / 55.6% |
50.0% / 54.2% |
25.5% / 28.3% |
4.7 / 5.3 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
57.4% / 32.5% |
29.8 / 30.2 |
15 |
TB |
20 – 12 W |
2.3 |
36.0% / 26.9% |
8.0% / 3.8% |
0.0% / 4.0% |
5.1 / 6.0 |
57.1% / 57.1% |
12.2% / 9.5% |
4.9 / 4.0 |
74 / 47 |
49.1% / 45.7% |
50.0% / 40.4% |
40.0% / 59.3% |
5.0 / 5.1 |
2.7% / 0.0% |
66.2% / 44.7% |
32.3 / 34.8 |
16 |
@LAC |
22 – 10 W |
4.2 |
44.0% / 41.5% |
12.0% / 9.8% |
0.0% / 5.4% |
8.1 / 3.6 |
37.1% / 43.8% |
34.3% / 6.3% |
4.5 / 3.2 |
60 / 57 |
45.2% / 45.5% |
40.0% / 42.1% |
57.6% / 6.6% |
6.0 / 3.5 |
1.7% / 1.8% |
58.3% / 28.1% |
28.2 / 30.8 |
17 |
CLE |
26 – 24 W |
6.7 |
38.5% / 38.1% |
7.7% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 7.1% |
6.4 / 9.0 |
42.6% / 50.0% |
14.9% / 28.6% |
6.3 / 3.6 |
73 / 56 |
45.6% / 43.2% |
41.1% / 41.1% |
61.3% / 64.1% |
6.3 / 7.6 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
64.4% / 25.0% |
31.6 / 24.0 |
18 |
LAC |
17 – 23 L |
-8.6 |
27.8% / 42.4% |
19.4% / 3.0% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
3.9 / 4.7 |
34.8% / 36.4% |
30.4% / 27.3% |
3.9 / 2.7 |
59 / 66 |
27.5% / 40.4% |
30.5% / 39.4% |
57.2% / 17.3% |
3.9 / 3.7 |
3.4% / 1.5% |
39.0% / 50.0% |
31.9 / 42.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
TEN |
27 – 20 W |
3.5 |
55.2% / 36.8% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
7.1% / 7.9% |
7.7 / 5.8 |
55.2% / 44.8% |
27.6% / 17.2% |
4.1 / 4.0 |
58 / 67 |
66.7% / 41.2% |
55.2% / 40.3% |
44.7% / 17.0% |
5.9 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 43.3% |
35.5 / 29.2 |
2 |
@NYJ |
20 – 12 W |
9.2 |
44.4% / 43.2% |
14.8% / 6.8% |
0.0% / 4.9% |
4.5 / 7.3 |
58.1% / 26.3% |
29.0% / 36.8% |
4.4 / 2.2 |
58 / 63 |
55.8% / 39.6% |
51.7% / 38.1% |
36.6% / 50.3% |
4.4 / 5.7 |
3.4% / 1.6% |
53.4% / 30.2% |
34.4 / 24.1 |
3 |
OAK |
28 – 20 W |
-2.8 |
48.0% / 57.1% |
4.0% / 7.1% |
0.0% / 5.1% |
13.3 / 7.7 |
21.4% / 59.4% |
35.7% / 15.6% |
2.9 / 3.4 |
39 / 74 |
43.3% / 62.1% |
38.5% / 58.1% |
63.0% / 32.7% |
9.6 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.9% / 43.2% |
30.6 / 19.7 |
4 |
@NE |
7 – 38 L |
-19.6 |
33.3% / 42.9% |
7.4% / 0.0% |
4.0% / 5.7% |
4.3 / 7.8 |
11.1% / 37.5% |
38.9% / 20.0% |
3.1 / 4.4 |
45 / 75 |
21.2% / 34.5% |
24.4% / 40.0% |
20.9% / 45.4% |
3.8 / 6.0 |
2.2% / 0.0% |
40.0% / 53.3% |
29.5 / 32.0 |
5 |
@CIN |
17 – 27 L |
4.6 |
44.7% / 46.9% |
7.9% / 6.3% |
5.7% / 3.3% |
4.4 / 7.2 |
45.5% / 30.8% |
13.6% / 26.9% |
5.8 / 4.0 |
60 / 58 |
48.9% / 45.7% |
45.0% / 39.7% |
25.3% / 53.0% |
5.0 / 5.7 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
36.7% / 44.8% |
25.5 / 22.9 |
6 |
CHI |
31 – 28 W |
0.3 |
47.7% / 54.5% |
0.0% / 6.1% |
4.5% / 3.2% |
8.6 / 9.2 |
58.1% / 45.2% |
9.7% / 9.7% |
5.2 / 5.3 |
75 / 64 |
53.4% / 48.0% |
52.0% / 50.0% |
48.2% / 60.8% |
7.2 / 7.3 |
1.3% / 3.1% |
41.3% / 48.4% |
28.7 / 25.3 |
7 |
DET |
21 – 32 L |
-8.1 |
48.6% / 60.9% |
11.4% / 4.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 9.1 |
47.4% / 57.1% |
26.3% / 22.9% |
5.6 / 7.1 |
54 / 58 |
46.5% / 66.0% |
48.1% / 58.6% |
40.4% / 61.1% |
6.0 / 7.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.2% / 60.3% |
25.2 / 23.0 |
8 |
@HOU |
23 – 42 L |
-7.4 |
40.0% / 45.0% |
5.0% / 0.0% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 12.0 |
64.0% / 40.0% |
20.0% / 20.0% |
4.6 / 5.4 |
65 / 55 |
54.9% / 39.0% |
49.2% / 41.8% |
34.3% / 64.2% |
5.7 / 7.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.5% / 63.6% |
25.3 / 29.7 |
9 |
NYJ |
13 – 6 W |
3.2 |
42.9% / 34.9% |
14.3% / 9.3% |
0.0% / 10.3% |
3.7 / 4.7 |
25.9% / 38.1% |
25.9% / 28.6% |
2.4 / 3.8 |
55 / 64 |
40.0% / 42.9% |
34.5% / 35.9% |
15.5% / 41.8% |
3.1 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.1% / 32.8% |
32.4 / 18.4 |
10 |
@GB |
12 – 31 L |
-9.9 |
37.2% / 50.0% |
14.0% / 6.7% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
3.8 / 6.1 |
56.5% / 56.0% |
13.0% / 12.0% |
5.7 / 7.8 |
66 / 55 |
45.8% / 58.5% |
43.9% / 52.7% |
38.1% / 54.9% |
4.5 / 6.9 |
1.5% / 1.8% |
34.8% / 45.5% |
31.4 / 35.7 |
12 |
@IND |
24 – 27 L |
2.2 |
42.3% / 61.5% |
3.8% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 5.3% |
7.7 / 8.6 |
44.0% / 53.8% |
28.0% / 19.2% |
4.5 / 4.5 |
51 / 65 |
46.2% / 62.7% |
43.1% / 58.5% |
55.7% / 46.6% |
6.2 / 7.0 |
2.0% / 1.5% |
49.0% / 40.0% |
28.8 / 24.4 |
13 |
BUF |
21 – 17 W |
4.1 |
51.9% / 37.1% |
11.1% / 5.7% |
4.2% / 6.1% |
4.3 / 6.2 |
30.4% / 51.6% |
43.5% / 22.6% |
2.6 / 6.4 |
50 / 66 |
48.7% / 46.2% |
42.0% / 43.9% |
17.1% / 68.0% |
3.5 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
46.0% / 47.0% |
28.6 / 23.4 |
14 |
NE |
34 – 33 W |
-2.0 |
45.8% / 53.3% |
20.8% / 4.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.3 / 7.6 |
71.4% / 33.3% |
14.3% / 23.3% |
9.0 / 2.6 |
45 / 75 |
65.8% / 42.4% |
57.8% / 45.3% |
58.5% / 28.0% |
9.2 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
46.7% / 40.0% |
25.3 / 35.3 |
15 |
@MIN |
17 – 41 L |
-13.1 |
21.2% / 52.2% |
27.3% / 8.7% |
0.0% / 4.8% |
1.1 / 8.6 |
45.0% / 55.0% |
25.0% / 15.0% |
7.8 / 5.5 |
53 / 63 |
36.8% / 59.2% |
30.2% / 54.0% |
64.2% / 58.1% |
3.6 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.7% / 63.5% |
25.2 / 39.4 |
16 |
JAC |
7 – 17 L |
-0.7 |
44.0% / 36.7% |
12.0% / 20.0% |
4.5% / 0.0% |
4.8 / 3.9 |
27.8% / 53.1% |
27.8% / 21.9% |
3.4 / 3.9 |
43 / 62 |
41.2% / 46.8% |
37.2% / 45.2% |
39.9% / 27.9% |
4.3 / 3.9 |
2.3% / 1.6% |
41.9% / 51.6% |
24.1 / 36.8 |
17 |
@BUF |
17 – 42 L |
-12.6 |
44.4% / 51.9% |
11.1% / 3.7% |
6.3% / 3.8% |
3.5 / 8.0 |
48.0% / 42.4% |
28.0% / 21.2% |
4.0 / 5.0 |
61 / 60 |
50.0% / 46.8% |
45.9% / 46.7% |
12.4% / 54.1% |
3.7 / 6.4 |
3.3% / 0.0% |
41.0% / 55.0% |
30.4 / 37.5 |