Baltimore Ravens @

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Sep 8
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 459
Odds: Miami Dolphins +6.5, Total: 38.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Baltimore (-6.5) vs MIAMI

The Ravens are zigging while everyone else is zagging – going all in on a modern offense focused entirely on the ground game. Baltimore brought in Greg Roman at offensive coordinator, who spent 5 seasons maximizing the talents of Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor, to teach Lamar Jackson to be an NFL quarterback. The strength of Miami’s defense is the secondary, as Xavien Howard, Reshad Jones, and Minkah Fitzpatrick are probably the three best players on the team, but having a strong secondary doesn’t mean as much versus the Ravens. Baltimore has some of the worst starting wide receivers in the league and I expect them to play a lot of 12 personnel after drafting tight ends Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews last year. The Ravens will still need Jackson to hit some deep passes, but their rushing attack is in line to have a field day against this Dolphins defense.

The strength of Baltimore’s defense is also the secondary after signing Earl Thomas, still likely the best safety in the NFL. During the last 3 seasons the Seahawks defense surrendered nearly a yard per pass play more with Thomas out of the lineup than when the star safety was in uniform. Our numbers have the Ravens defense ranked 2nd in the league and Dolphins’ QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, known to sling it deep, is likely to get eaten alive by this secondary.

The Dolphins are in complete rebuilding mode and hiring former Patriots linebacker coach Brain Flores as head coach and Chad O’Shea, who has never called plays before, at offensive coordinator are puzzling moves. Our priors have Miami with the second-worst offense and the worst defense in the league with no real difference makers on either side of the ball.

Our model favors the Ravens by 6.5 points, but I think their offense is uniquely suited to exploit the Dolphins in this matchup.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Ravens
  • Dolphins
BAL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.7 38.4
  • Succ Pass Plays 43.3% 40.5%
  • Sack Rate 6.7% 7.4%
  • Int Rate 1.7% 1.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.4% 19.7%
  • Big Pass Yards 36.8% 35.9%
  • NYPP 6.0 5.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 33.5 22.8
  • RB YPR 4.0 3.3
  • Stuff Rate 21.6% 25.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.3% 41.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 40.6% 37.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.3 3.6




Game

  • All Snaps 70.2 61.2
  • Early Down Succ 48.5% 43.8%
  • Succ Rate 47.1% 41.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 40.3% 37.4%
  • Yards Per Play 5.2 4.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 0.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.7 28.2
  • Run Ratio 47.5% 36.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.2 29.2
  • Game Control 2.0 -2.0
 
  • Points 23.9 18.2
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