Game Analysis

Lean – LA CHARGERS (+3.5) over Baltimore

· Justin Herbert averaged 6.4 yppp last week in Green Bay but it should’ve been even better as the Chargers dropped a league-high 6 passes against the Packers.

· Los Angeles rookie WR Quentin Johnston had a crucial drop on the final drive that would’ve put the Chargers in field goal range, and he averaged only 3.5 yards per target. Johnston’s 0.75 yards per route run ranks 8th-worst in the NFL.

· Keenan Allen is the Chargers’ only viable receiver averaging 0.57 EPA/target (4th) but he will be shut down on the inside by S Kyle Hamilton, who is allowing a league-low 0.39 yards per slot cover snap.

· Ravens edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney has 48 pressures (8th) and he will wreak havoc across from RT Trey Pipkins, who ranks 9th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Herbert is having to take matters into his own hands as he rushed for 73 yards last week.

· Baltimore backup tackle Patrick Mekari surrendered 4 pressures last game while the rest of the offensive line combined to allow only 4 pressures and it looks like starting LT Ronnie Stanley could be back on the field this Sunday night to limit edge defender Khalil Mack, who ranks 12th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Los Angeles edge rusher Joey Bosa suffered a foot injury last week and he is out. However, backup edge defender Tuli Tuipulotu has a 13.6% pressure rate compared to Bosa’s 12.2% pressure rate and the gap between the two might not be too large.

· Lamar Jackson’s main concern will be the loss of tight end Mark Andrews, who was averaging 0.56 EPA/target (2nd). Andrews is worth nearly 2 points according to our numbers.

· Our model favors the Ravens by 3.4 points, with a predicted total of 48.4 points, but the situation favors the Chargers (136-59-1 ATS situation applies to them).