Game Analysis
Jacksonville (+4) vs Baltimore (London)
The Jaguars played better than their 21-point deficit to the Titans last week would indicate, as my metrics say they should’ve only lost by 6. Jacksonville’s defense has been solid this season with new additions Calais Campbell and AJ Bouye (9th in my metrics) and I expect that to continue against a Baltimore attack ranking below average according to my model who has now lost Danny Woodhead and key offensive lineman Marshall Yanda to injury.
The Ravens have the second-best point differential in the NFL (+34) through two weeks but have been lucky to allow 0 points in their opponents 4 trips to the Redzone. Baltimore has also benefitted from their opponents converting only 20% of 3rd downs against them – even the best defenses surrender about 35% of 3rd downs over the course of a season. I’m passing this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
27.0
40.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
38.9%
30.8%
-
Sack Rate
5.6%
10.3%
-
Int Rate
4.4%
11.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
6.0%
27.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.3%
59.3%
-
NYPP
5.9
5.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
37.5
21.5
-
RB YPR
3.9
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
23.2%
23.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.8%
37.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.7%
47.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
64.5
62.0
-
Early Down Succ
43.2%
35.3%
-
Succ Rate
41.7%
33.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.0%
56.4%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.6
25.5
-
Run Ratio
58.9%
34.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
33.0
26.5
-
Game Control
10.2
-10.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
28.5
37.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.0%
38.8%
-
Sack Rate
2.8%
12.7%
-
Int Rate
2.9%
3.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.3%
23.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
19.6%
34.1%
-
NYPP
5.9
5.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
33.0
30.5
-
RB YPR
3.4
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
14.5%
14.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.7%
64.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.1%
19.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
61.5
67.5
-
Early Down Succ
52.7%
54.3%
-
Succ Rate
48.0%
50.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
28.1%
27.2%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
4.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
2.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
27.1
-
Run Ratio
53.6%
45.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.8
33.2
-
Game Control
2.0
-2.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@CIN |
20 – 0 W |
11.0 |
27.8% / 30.6% |
5.6% / 13.9% |
5.9% / 12.9% |
6.2 / 4.0 |
45.2% / 36.4% |
19.0% / 22.7% |
3.7 / 3.5 |
60 / 58 |
39.1% / 34.1% |
40.0% / 32.8% |
32.1% / 45.7% |
4.5 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
70.0% / 37.9% |
32.2 / 30.8 |
2 |
CLE |
24 – 10 W |
9.4 |
50.0% / 31.1% |
5.6% / 6.7% |
2.9% / 9.5% |
5.6 / 6.5 |
36.4% / 38.1% |
27.3% / 23.8% |
4.2 / 4.4 |
69 / 66 |
47.3% / 36.5% |
43.5% / 33.3% |
39.9% / 67.1% |
4.9 / 5.8 |
1.4% / 1.5% |
47.8% / 31.8% |
33.9 / 22.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@HOU |
30 – 7 W |
11.9 |
52.4% / 34.8% |
0.0% / 21.7% |
0.0% / 2.8% |
6.0 / 2.4 |
41.5% / 60.9% |
17.1% / 17.4% |
3.8 / 4.0 |
62 / 69 |
53.3% / 44.6% |
45.2% / 43.5% |
32.6% / 12.8% |
4.5 / 2.9 |
0.0% / 4.3% |
66.1% / 33.3% |
38.2 / 26.5 |
2 |
TEN |
16 – 37 L |
-7.9 |
41.7% / 42.9% |
5.6% / 3.6% |
5.9% / 3.7% |
5.9 / 7.5 |
64.0% / 68.4% |
12.0% / 10.5% |
4.0 / 4.8 |
61 / 66 |
52.1% / 64.0% |
50.8% / 57.6% |
23.5% / 41.6% |
5.1 / 5.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
41.0% / 57.6% |
23.4 / 39.9 |