Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – HOUSTON (+7) over Baltimore

Lamar Jackson said this off-season that adding the deep ball was the next step in his progression as a quarterback and he followed through in week 1 – ranking third in air yards per attempt. Jackson ranked 2nd in completion percentage versus expectation and it looks like the 2019 MVP is setting himself up for another outstanding season. Our metrics have Houston’s defense ranked 30th and I do not expect them to put up much resistance against Baltimore’s attack.

Deshaun Watson targeted his wide receivers at the 2nd-highest rate in the league in week 1, which is not a good strategy versus Baltimore’s excellent cornerbacks, and Houston’s WR-heavy offensive scheme is a big reason why Watson only gained 3.0 yards per pass play against the Ravens last year. Baltimore blitzed 57% of the time in Week 1 (10 percentage points higher than anyone else) and I expect this defensive front to make life difficult on Watson again.

Our model favors the Ravens by just 5.2 points, with a predicted total of 51.5 points, and the Ravens’ easy win last week sets them up in a negative 44-113-4 ATS road favorite letdown situation this week. However, the matchup favors Baltimore. I’ll just lean slightly with Houston at +7 or more.

Team Stats
Game Log

Ravens
Texans

BAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 28.0 40.5
Succ Pass Plays 51.8% 45.8%
Sack Rate 10.7% 7.4%
Int Rate 0.0% 2.7%
Deep Pass Rate 23.4% 20.6%
Big Pass Yards 46.3% 37.3%
NYPP 8.0 5.2

Rush

Rush Plays 33.5 22.0
RB YPR 5.0 4.0
Stuff Rate 16.0% 18.1%
Succ Rush Plays 43.0% 41.7%
Big Rush Yards 61.0% 29.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.9 4.1

Game

All Snaps 61.5 62.5
Early Down Succ 48.4% 51.2%
Succ Rate 47.2% 45.1%
Big Yards Rate 54.2% 38.7%
Yards Per Play 6.4 4.9
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 2.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.7 26.4
Run Ratio 54.3% 34.8%
Starting Field Pos 35.8 22.5
Game Control 12.5 -12.5

Points 35.5 11.0

HOU

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.0 30.5
Succ Pass Plays 55.3% 56.5%
Sack Rate 10.6% 8.7%
Int Rate 3.0% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 20.1% 14.0%
Big Pass Yards 31.5% 21.5%
NYPP 6.5 6.2

Rush

Rush Plays 19.5 35.5
RB YPR 4.1 6.0
Stuff Rate 13.4% 13.0%
Succ Rush Plays 47.2% 46.5%
Big Rush Yards 20.8% 55.9%
Yards Per Rush 4.2 5.5

Game

All Snaps 57.5 66.0
Early Down Succ 57.0% 52.8%
Succ Rate 53.0% 51.4%
Big Yards Rate 30.6% 38.5%
Yards Per Play 5.8 5.9
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.1 31.8
Run Ratio 33.9% 53.8%
Starting Field Pos 23.1 32.5
Game Control -8.4 8.4

Points 18.0 33.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CLE	38 – 6 W	16.2	57.1% / 36.6%	7.1% / 4.9%	0.0% / 2.6%	9.6 / 4.1	40.0% / 48.1%	26.7% / 18.5%	3.6 / 5.1	58 / 68	47.8% / 48.1%	48.3% / 41.2%	50.4% / 49.3%	6.5 / 4.5	1.7% / 2.9%	51.7% / 39.7%	43.8 / 21.3
2	@HOU	33 – 16 W	8.9	46.4% / 55.0%	14.3% / 10.0%	0.0% / 2.8%	6.3 / 6.3	45.9% / 35.3%	5.4% / 17.6%	6.2 / 3.0	65 / 57	48.9% / 54.3%	46.2% / 49.1%	58.0% / 28.0%	6.3 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.8%	56.9% / 29.8%	27.8 / 23.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@KC	20 – 34 L	-8.0	55.6% / 66.7%	11.1% / 3.0%	3.1% / 0.0%	6.7 / 6.2	59.1% / 47.1%	9.1% / 20.6%	5.4 / 4.9	58 / 67	59.6% / 56.6%	56.9% / 56.7%	33.3% / 19.0%	6.2 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	37.9% / 50.7%	22.3 / 37.2
2	BAL	16 – 33 L	-8.9	55.0% / 46.4%	10.0% / 14.3%	2.8% / 0.0%	6.3 / 6.3	35.3% / 45.9%	17.6% / 5.4%	3.0 / 6.2	57 / 65	54.3% / 48.9%	49.1% / 46.2%	28.0% / 58.0%	5.3 / 6.3	1.8% / 0.0%	29.8% / 56.9%	23.8 / 27.8

Baltimore Ravens @

Houston Texans

Sun, Sep 20

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis