Game Analysis
Baltimore (-8) vs DETROIT
I’m expecting Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff to lean on their tight ends in this matchup. Detroit TE TJ Hockenson had four first downs last week and he will exploit linebacker Patrick Queen, who surrendered 104 receiving yards last Sunday night. Ravens’ TE Mark Andrews is averaging just 1.24 yards per route run since signing his $56 million contract extension but that should improve on Sunday given that the Lions are surrendering 16.3 yards per target to opposing tight ends.
Lions’ edge defender Romeo Okwara is probably one of the most underrated players in the NFL. Okwara ranked 5th in pass rushing efficiency last season and is 8th through two weeks this year. Okwara should face little resistance this week versus Ravens’ backup RT Patrick Mekari.
Our model favors the Ravens by 10.0 points, with a predicted total of 48.5 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.0
45.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.8%
57.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
2.5%
-
Int Rate
3.8%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.0%
24.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
50.0%
45.7%
-
NYPP
8.0
9.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
37.5
19.5
-
RB YPR
5.0
3.1
-
Stuff Rate
20.3%
34.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
53.3%
44.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
58.2%
48.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.8
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
67.5
64.5
-
Early Down Succ
54.7%
57.6%
-
Succ Rate
52.5%
53.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
53.9%
46.1%
-
Yards Per Play
6.8
7.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.5%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.5
28.5
-
Run Ratio
55.5%
31.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
-6.1
6.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
60.0
27.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.7%
55.6%
-
Sack Rate
5.0%
3.7%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.0%
8.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.3%
59.2%
-
NYPP
5.6
11.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.0
27.0
-
RB YPR
4.9
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
20.8%
33.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.0%
37.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
61.2%
34.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
84.0
54.0
-
Early Down Succ
50.0%
50.0%
-
Succ Rate
44.0%
46.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
49.3%
53.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
7.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.0%
3.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
23.9
29.3
-
Run Ratio
28.6%
50.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.0
0.0
-
Game Control
-9.1
9.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@LV |
27 – 33 L |
4.7 |
42.4% / 50.8% |
9.1% / 5.1% |
0.0% / 1.8% |
7.1 / 7.4 |
38.2% / 38.1% |
23.5% / 47.6% |
5.6 / 3.9 |
67 / 80 |
43.4% / 50.0% |
40.3% / 47.5% |
59.2% / 48.5% |
6.3 / 6.5 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
50.7% / 26.3% |
0.0 / 0.0 |
2 |
KC |
36 – 35 W |
-16.8 |
59.3% / 64.5% |
3.7% / 0.0% |
7.7% / 3.2% |
8.9 / 11.1 |
68.3% / 50.0% |
17.1% / 22.2% |
6.1 / 3.4 |
68 / 49 |
66.1% / 65.1% |
64.7% / 59.2% |
48.6% / 43.7% |
7.2 / 8.3 |
0.0% / 2.0% |
60.3% / 36.7% |
0.0 / 0.0 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
SF |
33 – 41 L |
-9.1 |
41.7% / 55.6% |
5.0% / 3.7% |
1.8% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 11.8 |
50.0% / 37.0% |
20.8% / 33.3% |
4.8 / 3.4 |
84 / 54 |
50.0% / 50.0% |
44.0% / 46.3% |
49.3% / 53.6% |
5.4 / 7.6 |
0.0% / 3.7% |
28.6% / 50.0% |
0.0 / 0.0 |