Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – CLEVELAND (+7) over Baltimore

Last Sunday, the Browns fell to 3-10 ATS for the season after failing to cover as a 3-point underdog despite having a two-touchdown lead through 3 quarters. That 6 point overtime loss added to a long list of bad beats for Cleveland backers this season. In their four most recent ATS losses, the Browns were covering with less than 5 minutes to play and gave up late touchdowns to opponents who already had the lead with no incentive but to run out the clock.

However, despite the Browns seemingly inventing new ways each week to lose bets that they should be winning I am still going to back them this week. Cleveland actually applies to a 98-43-1 ATS situation that plays on teams with horrible spread record against teams with a good spread record and the Browns also apply to a 111-48-3 ATS contrary angle that plays on teams that average less than 17 points per game.

There is reason to believe that Cleveland will stay competitive in this game aside from the historically positive situations.

Former All-Pro WR Josh Gordon returned to the Browns two weeks ago and he’s averaged 2.6 yards per route run in his limited action, which would rank behind only Julio Jones and Antonio Brown. Gordon should be able to exploit a Baltimore secondary that gave up nearly 500 passing yards last week in their first game without top cornerback Jimmy Smith, who is out for the season. Meanwhile, the Ravens’ conservative offense would like to continue to feed the ball to Alex Collins, who is averaging 5.1 ypr, but running the ball plays into the strength of the Browns, who rank 2^nd in the NFL in rush defense. Cleveland outgained Baltimore by nearly a yard per play in their week 2 meeting without Josh Gordon and my ratings favor the Ravens by 6 ½ points without accounting for Gordon (too small of a sample size to factor him in our ratings). The situation certainly favors the Browns and eventually they are going to cover the spread in a game in which they deserve to cover. The only reason this game is just a lean is because the Browns are the Browns but there is no doubt they are the right side (again).

Team Stats
Game Log

Ravens
Browns

BAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.5 37.6
Succ Pass Plays 39.4% 41.5%
Sack Rate 4.9% 7.8%
Int Rate 2.7% 4.4%
Deep Pass Rate 15.2% 20.6%
Big Pass Yards 29.2% 41.3%
NYPP 5.2 5.8

Rush

Rush Plays 29.5 28.3
RB YPR 4.1 3.6
Stuff Rate 24.1% 26.6%
Succ Rush Plays 44.8% 38.2%
Big Rush Yards 42.9% 41.0%
Yards Per Rush 4.1 3.7

Game

All Snaps 64.9 65.9
Early Down Succ 45.5% 42.5%
Succ Rate 42.2% 40.5%
Big Yards Rate 35.3% 42.2%
Yards Per Play 4.6 5.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.8 28.1
Run Ratio 45.7% 42.8%
Starting Field Pos 31.7 26.9
Game Control 1.5 -1.5

Points 24.5 18.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CIN	20 – 0 W	11.0	27.8% / 30.6%	5.6% / 13.9%	5.9% / 12.9%	6.2 / 4.0	45.2% / 36.4%	19.0% / 22.7%	3.7 / 3.5	60 / 58	39.1% / 34.1%	40.0% / 32.8%	32.1% / 45.7%	4.5 / 3.8	0.0% / 1.7%	70.0% / 37.9%	32.2 / 30.8
2	CLE	24 – 10 W	9.4	50.0% / 31.1%	5.6% / 6.7%	2.9% / 9.5%	5.6 / 6.5	36.4% / 38.1%	27.3% / 23.8%	4.2 / 4.4	69 / 66	47.3% / 36.5%	43.5% / 33.3%	39.9% / 67.1%	4.9 / 5.8	1.4% / 1.5%	47.8% / 31.8%	33.9 / 22.3
3	@JAC	7 – 44 L	-23.9	24.1% / 54.5%	6.9% / 0.0%	7.4% / 0.0%	1.8 / 7.4	56.0% / 31.6%	20.0% / 10.5%	5.4 / 4.4	54 / 71	42.9% / 48.1%	38.9% / 42.3%	39.2% / 35.8%	3.4 / 5.8	1.9% / 0.0%	46.3% / 53.5%	24.1 / 38.5
4	PIT	9 – 26 L	-8.6	52.9% / 41.9%	7.8% / 3.2%	4.3% / 3.3%	4.0 / 6.7	46.7% / 46.5%	46.7% / 23.3%	5.5 / 4.0	66 / 74	56.9% / 45.6%	51.5% / 44.6%	25.3% / 26.4%	4.4 / 5.2	1.5% / 0.0%	22.7% / 58.1%	28.5 / 31.1
5	@OAK	30 – 17 W	11.8	42.3% / 34.5%	0.0% / 10.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.5 / 4.7	44.2% / 56.0%	9.3% / 24.0%	3.4 / 4.3	69 / 54	46.9% / 43.9%	43.5% / 44.4%	46.5% / 40.0%	5.3 / 4.5	0.0% / 1.9%	62.3% / 46.3%	34.0 / 24.9
6	CHI	24 – 27 L	-4.4	27.3% / 28.6%	6.8% / 19.0%	4.9% / 0.0%	3.8 / 5.3	46.2% / 41.8%	15.4% / 29.1%	4.8 / 4.2	70 / 76	37.3% / 42.1%	34.3% / 38.2%	21.6% / 41.1%	4.2 / 4.5	1.4% / 2.6%	37.1% / 72.4%	29.9 / 27.6
7	@MIN	16 – 24 L	-5.1	36.4% / 54.8%	11.4% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.2%	3.3 / 6.1	40.0% / 39.4%	35.0% / 27.3%	3.2 / 5.1	64 / 64	36.2% / 46.9%	37.5% / 46.9%	29.8% / 26.3%	3.3 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	31.3% / 51.6%	25.4 / 33.2
8	MIA	40 – 0 W	17.5	36.4% / 29.8%	0.0% / 6.4%	0.0% / 4.5%	5.5 / 3.2	34.9% / 26.3%	20.9% / 42.1%	4.1 / 2.4	65 / 66	42.6% / 30.6%	35.4% / 28.8%	45.0% / 41.3%	4.6 / 3.0	0.0% / 0.0%	66.2% / 28.8%	35.3 / 22.2
9	@TEN	20 – 23 L	-6.3	49.1% / 51.6%	3.6% / 9.7%	3.8% / 3.6%	4.9 / 6.0	40.9% / 36.4%	22.7% / 22.7%	3.3 / 3.3	77 / 53	47.4% / 53.8%	46.8% / 45.3%	8.2% / 49.0%	4.4 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	28.6% / 41.5%	24.8 / 34.6
11	@GB	23 – 0 W	7.6	32.3% / 38.1%	9.7% / 14.3%	3.6% / 8.3%	5.2 / 4.5	44.4% / 44.0%	25.9% / 32.0%	2.2 / 3.0	58 / 67	43.9% / 44.0%	37.9% / 40.3%	34.1% / 26.4%	3.8 / 4.0	0.0% / 3.0%	46.6% / 37.3%	46.6 / 20.1
12	HOU	23 – 16 W	2.0	32.4% / 38.5%	2.9% / 5.1%	0.0% / 5.4%	4.6 / 6.1	36.4% / 36.0%	30.3% / 32.0%	4.3 / 2.6	67 / 64	38.3% / 36.0%	34.3% / 37.5%	48.3% / 46.9%	4.4 / 4.7	0.0% / 1.6%	49.3% / 39.1%	34.3 / 20.9
13	DET	44 – 20 W	9.9	55.6% / 48.6%	0.0% / 8.1%	0.0% / 5.9%	7.5 / 7.9	46.4% / 20.8%	28.6% / 37.5%	3.6 / 3.3	64 / 61	56.0% / 39.6%	51.6% / 37.7%	38.8% / 60.8%	5.8 / 6.1	0.0% / 1.6%	43.8% / 39.3%	36.6 / 23.2
14	@PIT	38 – 39 L	-1.6	45.7% / 56.7%	2.9% / 4.5%	2.9% / 0.0%	7.5 / 7.3	65.4% / 43.8%	11.5% / 18.8%	5.8 / 3.7	61 / 83	56.9% / 50.8%	54.1% / 54.2%	49.6% / 41.3%	6.8 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	42.6% / 19.3%	26.0 / 21.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	PIT	18 – 21 L	-5.8	43.2% / 45.9%	18.9% / 2.7%	3.3% / 2.8%	4.9 / 6.9	36.0% / 16.0%	16.0% / 16.0%	2.3 / 1.5	62 / 62	41.7% / 41.0%	40.3% / 33.9%	45.1% / 35.2%	3.8 / 4.7	0.0% / 0.0%	40.3% / 40.3%	28.6 / 20.8
2	@BAL	10 – 24 L	-9.4	31.1% / 50.0%	6.7% / 5.6%	9.5% / 2.9%	6.5 / 5.6	38.1% / 36.4%	23.8% / 27.3%	4.4 / 4.2	66 / 69	36.5% / 47.3%	33.3% / 43.5%	67.1% / 39.9%	5.8 / 4.9	1.5% / 1.4%	31.8% / 47.8%	22.3 / 33.9
3	@IND	28 – 31 L	-9.2	35.4% / 33.3%	2.1% / 11.1%	6.4% / 0.0%	4.9 / 9.0	57.1% / 27.0%	19.0% / 37.8%	5.3 / 2.5	69 / 64	42.9% / 24.4%	42.0% / 29.7%	53.8% / 63.7%	5.0 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.6%	30.4% / 57.8%	28.9 / 29.6
4	CIN	7 – 31 L	-16.5	29.5% / 60.6%	4.5% / 9.1%	2.4% / 0.0%	3.9 / 8.0	41.2% / 40.0%	35.3% / 26.7%	2.6 / 2.9	61 / 63	32.6% / 50.0%	32.8% / 50.8%	33.0% / 43.4%	3.5 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.6%	27.9% / 47.6%	26.4 / 28.3
5	NYJ	14 – 17 L	-1.7	45.9% / 51.5%	2.7% / 9.1%	5.6% / 3.3%	7.5 / 5.4	45.5% / 19.0%	18.2% / 33.3%	4.2 / 1.8	70 / 54	46.3% / 45.9%	45.7% / 38.9%	40.1% / 32.1%	6.0 / 4.0	1.4% / 0.0%	47.1% / 38.9%	30.1 / 29.0
6	@HOU	17 – 33 L	-16.2	31.7% / 50.0%	9.8% / 3.3%	8.1% / 3.4%	2.8 / 7.2	63.6% / 26.5%	13.6% / 26.5%	6.1 / 3.6	63 / 64	49.0% / 38.8%	42.9% / 37.5%	39.7% / 47.5%	3.9 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	34.9% / 53.1%	28.0 / 24.9
7	TEN	9 – 12 L	-2.1	39.0% / 41.7%	4.9% / 5.6%	7.7% / 0.0%	5.3 / 5.3	25.9% / 31.3%	22.2% / 46.9%	2.5 / 2.5	68 / 68	37.3% / 38.0%	33.8% / 36.8%	23.9% / 14.5%	4.2 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.5%	39.7% / 47.1%	25.1 / 33.6
8	MIN	16 – 33 L	-1.9	29.7% / 52.3%	8.1% / 2.3%	0.0% / 2.3%	4.4 / 6.5	54.5% / 41.2%	9.1% / 29.4%	5.2 / 2.6	59 / 78	42.2% / 50.0%	39.0% / 47.4%	41.3% / 28.8%	4.7 / 4.8	3.4% / 0.0%	37.3% / 43.6%	31.2 / 32.8
10	@DET	24 – 38 L	-0.7	29.5% / 36.7%	9.1% / 13.3%	2.5% / 3.8%	4.8 / 8.0	60.6% / 42.9%	30.3% / 28.6%	6.1 / 5.0	77 / 51	41.4% / 41.7%	42.9% / 39.2%	48.9% / 73.8%	5.4 / 6.8	1.3% / 0.0%	42.9% / 41.2%	28.4 / 28.8
11	JAC	7 – 19 L	-3.9	32.4% / 31.3%	13.5% / 6.3%	6.3% / 0.0%	3.6 / 4.5	36.8% / 31.1%	26.3% / 35.6%	2.7 / 3.1	56 / 77	40.0% / 32.1%	33.9% / 31.2%	42.2% / 24.2%	3.3 / 3.7	5.4% / 1.3%	33.9% / 58.4%	30.4 / 33.0
12	@CIN	16 – 30 L	-8.7	34.3% / 55.2%	11.4% / 3.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.7 / 7.2	54.8% / 50.0%	25.8% / 21.9%	5.5 / 4.8	66 / 61	43.8% / 58.3%	43.9% / 52.5%	70.1% / 36.1%	6.1 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	47.0% / 52.5%	23.7 / 33.4
13	@LAC	10 – 19 L	-4.7	34.3% / 56.8%	8.6% / 2.3%	3.1% / 0.0%	5.8 / 7.6	45.5% / 40.7%	31.8% / 29.6%	4.0 / 3.6	57 / 71	37.8% / 52.9%	38.6% / 50.7%	68.0% / 35.7%	5.1 / 6.1	1.8% / 0.0%	38.6% / 38.0%	24.3 / 26.6
14	GB	21 – 27 L	4.5	43.3% / 57.4%	6.7% / 2.1%	7.1% / 0.0%	7.0 / 5.4	39.3% / 39.3%	14.3% / 32.1%	4.9 / 3.1	58 / 75	39.5% / 51.9%	41.4% / 50.7%	32.7% / 28.7%	6.0 / 4.6	0.0% / 0.0%	48.3% / 37.3%	22.4 / 28.5

Baltimore Ravens @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Dec 17

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis