Game Analysis

Baltimore (-2.5) vs CINCINNATI

• Cincinnati’s postseason hopes essentially ended on Buffalo CB Christian Benford’s 63-yard pick-six last week, which increased the Bills’ win probability by 61 percentage points, the single biggest win probability swing on a play outside of the last two minutes since 2018.
• The Bengals could be without WR Tee Higgins, who is worth a point. Backup WR Andrei Iosivas is averaging 0.20 EPA/target fewer than Higgins.
• Lamar Jackson is banged up, averaging 0.10 EPA/play this year compared to a career 0.18 EPA/play coming into this season.
• However, this is a game where Jackson and Baltimore’s offense have a favorable matchup. The Ravens want to run the ball in heavy personnel and throw to tight ends (Baltimore’s offense is targeting tight ends on 30.5% of passes, which is the 5th-most in the league.
• Cincinnati’s defense is surrendering 0.51 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (30th) and the Bengals are surrendering 0.04 EPA/rush (30th).
• The Ravens outgained the Bengals by 1.3 yppl on Thanksgiving, and I expect Cincinnati’s defense not to have 5 takeaways this week as they did in that upset win.
• We favor Baltimore by 2.7 points, with a predicted total of 51.3 points. This game does apply to an 865-663-20 Under situation.