Game Analysis

Lean – Baltimore (+11) over CINCINNATI 

· The Ravens have decided to start green rookie quarterback Anthony Brown instead of veteran backup Brett Huntley. Huntley is not good but Brown has a total of just 12 yards on 6 NFL pass plays and I wasn’t too impressed with him in college (aside from his running). Oregon’s pass attack improved by 1.9 yards per pass play this season with Bo Nix taking over the offense that Brown ran the previous season.

· Baltimore’s defense will be getting reinforcements back. Interior defender Calais Campbell ranks 21st in pass rushing efficiency and looks on track to start his first game since week 15.

· The Ravens will likely have starting cornerback Marcus Peters in the fold for this game on the other side from Marlon Humphrey, who ranks 11th in coverage grade by PFF.

· Joe Burrow averaged only 5.5 yppp in the week 5 game versus Baltimore’s defense.

· Ravens edge defender Justin Houston has 8.0 sacks (18th) and he will line up across from backup tackle Hakeem Adeniji, who has been one of the worst linemen in the NFL for two seasons.

· Adeniji has allowed 6 pressures in only 77 pass blocking snaps in 2022 going into last Monday night’s game and surrendered 6 sacks in the playoffs last year.

· Baltimore’s offense also has the upper hand in the trenches. LT Ronnie Stanley has not conceded a sack in 10 games this season and he will limit Bengals edge defender Trey Hendrickson, who ranks 7th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Cincinnati interior defender DJ Reader has a 10% pressure rate, but he will go against Ben Powers, who leads all guards in pass blocking efficiency.

· Our model favors the Bengals by 8.3 points with Brown at quarterback for the Ravens, with a predicted total of 39 points. However, the Ravens could rest more starters for next week’s playoff game. I’ll still lean with Baltimore.