Baltimore Ravens @

Carolina Panthers

Sun, Oct 28
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 265
Odds: Carolina Panthers +2, Total: 43.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Over (43.5) Baltimore (-2) vs CAROLINA

Baltimore WR John Brown recorded 143 receiving yards last week and he has given Joe Flacco the ability to stretch the field again, which changes this Ravens offense. Brown now ranks 4th in the league in receiving yards from deep passes and his vertical threat has also helped Baltimore’s offense draw 5 pass interference calls, tied for 3rd-most in the league. Flacco is attempting 13.5% of his passes 20+ yards downfield, his highest rate since 2013, and I expect him to continue looking for Brown versus a Panthers defense surrendering 6.8 yards per pass play (23rd). Carolina edge rusher Mario Addison has 4.5 sacks (24th), but he could miss this game with a back injury. The Ravens offensive line ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency and Addison’s injury could give Flacco even more time in the pocket to look down the field.

On the other side of the ball, Panthers backup left tackle Chris Clark ranks 7th-worst in pass blocking efficiency filling in for Matt Kalil and he is likely to be exposed by Terrell Suggs, who’s recorded 5.5 sacks this season (t-12th). Baltimore’s defense, rated first in our metrics, has only played one mobile quarterback this season in Marcus Mariota and they completely shut him down. The Ravens sacked Marcus Mariota 11 times while holding him below his season average rushing yards. I expect Cam Newton to be under pressure all afternoon and his check-down option is likely to struggle. Christian McCaffrey has the 4th-most targets out of the backfield this season, but Baltimore’s defense allows a league-low 3.2 yards per target to opposing running backs.

The Ravens play at the 3rd-fastest pace and their offense ranks 10th in our numbers despite facing the most rain and 10th-fastest winds thus far this season. Our model has Baltimore favored by 0.9 points with a predicted total of 47.4, which accounts for the expected windy conditions. Our model recommends a Best Bet on the Over in this game but Carolina’s offense doesn’t matchup particularly well with the Ravens’ defense (but, what offense does?) so I’ll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 44 points or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Ravens
  • Panthers
BAL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 41.6 36.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 51.6% 42.0%
  • Sack Rate 4.3% 12.6%
  • Int Rate 1.4% 2.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.2% 19.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 35.9% 41.0%
  • NYPP 7.1 5.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 29.1 24.0
  • RB YPR 3.2 3.3
  • Stuff Rate 23.8% 29.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 45.6% 36.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 30.8% 39.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.3 3.7




Game

  • All Snaps 70.7 60.0
  • Early Down Succ 46.3% 42.1%
  • Succ Rate 48.9% 40.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 34.9% 42.4%
  • Yards Per Play 5.5 4.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.6 29.6
  • Run Ratio 41.4% 39.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 30.1 27.2
  • Game Control 5.6 -5.6
 
  • Points 25.1 14.4
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