Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – Over (43.5) Baltimore (-2) vs CAROLINA
Baltimore WR John Brown recorded 143 receiving yards last week and he has given Joe Flacco the ability to stretch the field again, which changes this Ravens offense. Brown now ranks 4th in the league in receiving yards from deep passes and his vertical threat has also helped Baltimore’s offense draw 5 pass interference calls, tied for 3rd-most in the league. Flacco is attempting 13.5% of his passes 20+ yards downfield, his highest rate since 2013, and I expect him to continue looking for Brown versus a Panthers defense surrendering 6.8 yards per pass play (23rd). Carolina edge rusher Mario Addison has 4.5 sacks (24th), but he could miss this game with a back injury. The Ravens offensive line ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency and Addison’s injury could give Flacco even more time in the pocket to look down the field.
On the other side of the ball, Panthers backup left tackle Chris Clark ranks 7th-worst in pass blocking efficiency filling in for Matt Kalil and he is likely to be exposed by Terrell Suggs, who’s recorded 5.5 sacks this season (t-12th). Baltimore’s defense, rated first in our metrics, has only played one mobile quarterback this season in Marcus Mariota and they completely shut him down. The Ravens sacked Marcus Mariota 11 times while holding him below his season average rushing yards. I expect Cam Newton to be under pressure all afternoon and his check-down option is likely to struggle. Christian McCaffrey has the 4th-most targets out of the backfield this season, but Baltimore’s defense allows a league-low 3.2 yards per target to opposing running backs.
The Ravens play at the 3rd-fastest pace and their offense ranks 10th in our numbers despite facing the most rain and 10th-fastest winds thus far this season. Our model has Baltimore favored by 0.9 points with a predicted total of 47.4, which accounts for the expected windy conditions. Our model recommends a Best Bet on the Over in this game but Carolina’s offense doesn’t matchup particularly well with the Ravens’ defense (but, what offense does?) so I’ll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 44 points or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.6
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.6%
42.0%
-
Sack Rate
4.3%
12.6%
-
Int Rate
1.4%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.2%
19.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.9%
41.0%
-
NYPP
7.1
5.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.1
24.0
-
RB YPR
3.2
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
23.8%
29.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.6%
36.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
30.8%
39.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.3
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
70.7
60.0
-
Early Down Succ
46.3%
42.1%
-
Succ Rate
48.9%
40.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
34.9%
42.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
4.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.6
29.6
-
Run Ratio
41.4%
39.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.1
27.2
-
Game Control
5.6
-5.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.8
35.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.0%
53.4%
-
Sack Rate
5.2%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
3.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.6%
20.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.2%
42.2%
-
NYPP
6.9
7.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.8
22.8
-
RB YPR
4.7
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
20.8%
25.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.4%
43.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
58.2%
55.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.2
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
61.7
58.5
-
Early Down Succ
54.4%
50.2%
-
Succ Rate
51.5%
49.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.8%
45.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
6.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.3
31.1
-
Run Ratio
45.1%
39.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.2
25.8
-
Game Control
-0.8
0.8
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
BUF |
47 – 3 W |
25.9 |
42.5% / 20.5% |
5.0% / 15.4% |
0.0% / 6.1% |
6.3 / 1.8 |
44.1% / 22.7% |
29.4% / 31.8% |
3.4 / 3.8 |
74 / 61 |
43.3% / 24.4% |
43.2% / 21.3% |
43.1% / 39.9% |
5.0 / 2.5 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
45.9% / 36.1% |
41.3 / 30.5 |
2 |
@CIN |
23 – 34 L |
-11.8 |
49.1% / 45.2% |
7.0% / 0.0% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 6.3 |
50.0% / 42.9% |
18.2% / 28.6% |
3.0 / 3.9 |
79 / 70 |
50.0% / 45.6% |
49.4% / 44.3% |
35.5% / 43.7% |
5.4 / 5.3 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
27.8% / 40.0% |
22.6 / 36.3 |
3 |
DEN |
27 – 14 W |
4.7 |
48.8% / 45.9% |
4.9% / 8.1% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
6.5 / 4.7 |
32.3% / 45.8% |
19.4% / 33.3% |
2.6 / 5.0 |
72 / 61 |
43.1% / 47.8% |
41.7% / 45.9% |
33.9% / 39.9% |
4.8 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.1% / 39.3% |
27.2 / 33.4 |
4 |
@PIT |
26 – 14 W |
6.3 |
47.7% / 47.9% |
4.5% / 2.1% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
8.1 / 5.5 |
48.5% / 16.7% |
9.1% / 25.0% |
3.0 / 1.7 |
77 / 60 |
51.9% / 50.0% |
48.1% / 41.7% |
32.7% / 42.1% |
5.9 / 4.8 |
1.3% / 1.7% |
42.9% / 20.0% |
36.8 / 21.2 |
5 |
@CLE |
9 – 12 L |
-0.7 |
80.6% / 62.1% |
6.5% / 17.2% |
3.4% / 4.2% |
9.5 / 10.5 |
48.0% / 46.4% |
32.0% / 35.7% |
4.6 / 4.0 |
56 / 57 |
47.8% / 45.5% |
66.1% / 54.4% |
35.1% / 57.7% |
7.3 / 7.3 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
44.6% / 49.1% |
31.4 / 19.7 |
6 |
@TEN |
21 – 0 W |
13.2 |
45.9% / 26.9% |
0.0% / 42.3% |
2.7% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 2.0 |
44.4% / 28.6% |
27.8% / 35.7% |
3.4 / 3.9 |
73 / 40 |
37.7% / 33.3% |
45.2% / 27.5% |
44.5% / 42.5% |
5.0 / 2.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 35.0% |
29.9 / 21.9 |
7 |
NO |
23 – 24 L |
1.7 |
46.3% / 45.2% |
2.4% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 6.6 |
52.2% / 50.0% |
30.4% / 12.5% |
3.3 / 3.4 |
64 / 71 |
50.0% / 48.0% |
48.4% / 47.9% |
19.7% / 31.2% |
5.5 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
35.9% / 56.3% |
21.8 / 27.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
DAL |
16 – 8 W |
6.7 |
50.0% / 37.1% |
10.7% / 17.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 3.9 |
44.7% / 26.1% |
21.1% / 17.4% |
3.9 / 4.1 |
66 / 58 |
58.7% / 38.6% |
47.0% / 32.8% |
28.7% / 22.7% |
4.5 / 4.0 |
1.5% / 1.7% |
57.6% / 39.7% |
38.1 / 21.4 |
2 |
@ATL |
24 – 31 L |
-5.0 |
53.2% / 67.9% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
2.2% / 3.6% |
6.8 / 9.7 |
66.7% / 50.0% |
11.1% / 31.3% |
6.7 / 5.3 |
65 / 60 |
58.5% / 59.2% |
56.9% / 58.3% |
44.4% / 55.9% |
6.8 / 7.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
27.7% / 53.3% |
19.5 / 26.2 |
3 |
CIN |
31 – 21 W |
4.5 |
40.0% / 53.2% |
4.0% / 4.3% |
0.0% / 8.9% |
5.9 / 7.0 |
47.6% / 53.8% |
21.4% / 23.1% |
5.5 / 5.1 |
67 / 60 |
46.2% / 56.0% |
44.8% / 53.3% |
54.8% / 58.1% |
5.6 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
62.7% / 21.7% |
30.5 / 23.5 |
5 |
NYG |
33 – 31 W |
5.4 |
76.2% / 75.0% |
4.8% / 4.2% |
10.0% / 8.7% |
11.0 / 15.9 |
40.6% / 25.0% |
28.1% / 43.8% |
3.7 / 3.1 |
53 / 40 |
47.1% / 46.7% |
54.7% / 55.0% |
52.7% / 59.3% |
6.6 / 10.8 |
0.0% / 2.5% |
60.4% / 40.0% |
28.5 / 30.5 |
6 |
@WAS |
17 – 23 L |
-9.4 |
53.7% / 35.9% |
2.4% / 7.7% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 4.0 |
47.4% / 51.7% |
26.3% / 10.3% |
4.3 / 4.6 |
60 / 68 |
58.3% / 43.8% |
51.7% / 42.6% |
25.9% / 36.3% |
5.9 / 4.3 |
3.3% / 0.0% |
31.7% / 42.6% |
20.3 / 33.7 |
7 |
@PHI |
21 – 17 W |
-6.8 |
51.2% / 51.2% |
4.9% / 9.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 6.9 |
61.1% / 54.2% |
16.7% / 25.0% |
6.8 / 2.4 |
59 / 65 |
57.8% / 57.1% |
54.2% / 52.3% |
50.0% / 37.7% |
6.3 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
30.5% / 36.9% |
26.3 / 19.8 |