Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (44) – Baltimore (-8.5) vs ARIZONA

· Baltimore’s offense is gaining 5.7 yppl this season (6th) but it jumps to 6.6 yppl in the 36.9% of snaps they’ve had with the entire starting offensive line on the field.

· The Cardinals are surrendering a 46.3% rush success rate (30th) and they will struggle versus a Baltimore offense that ranks 6th in EPA/rush.

· Lamar Jackson will take the top off of Arizona’s defense when the Cardinals do bring extra bodies in the box to stop the Ravens’ ground game. Jackson averaged 16.5 yppp on throws with 10+ air yards last week against the Lions despite high wind gusts he won’t have to contend with on Sunday in the dome.

· Joshua Dobbs thrives against man-heavy defenses that turn their back on him. Dobbs had 96 rushing yards versus the Cowboys and Giants. The Cardinals scored 28 points in both games. Baltimore’s defense has a 26.3% man-coverage rate (9th-highest).

· Dobbs is targeting tight ends on 31.1% of passes (3rd-most), but Arizona TE Zach Ertz is out with a quad strain and the Ravens are conceding a 46% success rate to tight ends (8th).

· Without the tight end available Dobbs will look downfield more often in this game and could take advantage Baltimore’s deep safety Marcus Williams being out. Cardinals WR Marquise Brown has 13 targets with at least 20 air yards (5th).

· Our model favors the Ravens by 10.5 points, with a predicted total of 47.5 points. The line value and the matchups favor Baltimore but Arizona applies to a 99-29-2 ATS contrary indicator. I will use Arizona in my spread pool.

The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 44 -115 or better (Strong Opinion Over 44.5 points) .