Game Analysis

Lean – Under (46) – Atlanta (-2.5) vs TAMPA BAY

• The Buccaneers lost wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans last Monday night. Godwin is averaging 0.57 EPA/target (8th) and Evans has a 58% success rate (15th). Tampa Bay’s offense is deserving of a 2-point downgrade by our metrics.
• Atlanta’s defense might be getting starting LB Troy Anderson back in uniform and they are already allowing only a 32% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (2nd). Baker Mayfield’s screen game will likely be shut down as he searches for answers without the two wide receivers.
• The Buccaneers’ defense could be without two starting cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Tykee Smith. Backups Tyrek Funderburk and Tavierre Thomas are likely to struggle against Falcons WR Drake London, who has a 62% success rate (5th).
• Tampa Bay’s defense is surrendering a 56% success rate to opposing tight ends and they will struggle with TE Kyle Pitts, who is averaging 1.54 yards per route run (6th) coming off a season-high target share of 25% last week.
• Atlanta LG Matthew Bergeron exited the last game with a neck/head injury and was replaced by Kyle Hinton, who surrendered a 12% pressure rate.
• Further complications for Kirk Cousins arise on the right side as Buccaneers edge rusher Yaya Diaby has 28 pressures (8th) and will line up across from RT Kaleb McGary, who ranks 7th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.
• Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing 5.3 yards per rush (30th) and I expect the Falcons to focus on the ground game in a more conservative approach after Cousins threw two interceptions while also losing a fumble in last week’s defeat.
• This game has major playoff implications with both teams about 75% to make the postseason with a win and dropping to 35% with a loss. Neither team will want to make the costly mistake, which will likely lead to more running in this second meeting of a divisional rivals.
• Our model makes Atlanta a 1.2-point favorite with a predicted total of 43.9 points.