Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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TAMPA BAY (-1.5) vs Atlanta

Jameis Winston averaged 6.5 yards per pass play in his first game without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin but ultimately the Buccaneers weren’t able to overcome his 4 interceptions in their 3 point loss to Houston. Winston was able to find Breshad Perriman last week for 102 receiving yards but I do not think a receiver of his caliber will continue producing at a high level even with cornerback Desmond Trufant out for the Falcons. Evans and Godwin both ranked top 10 in yards per route run and our numbers have the cluster injury worth nearly 3 points to Tampa Bay’s offense.

The Buccaneers have surrendered only 5.2 yards per pass play in 4 games starting Jamel Dean across from his college teammate Carlton Davis at cornerback. Julio Jones has 300 receiving yards the last two weeks without Calvin Ridley in the lineup but Tampa Bay’s cornerback duo will present a difficult challenge to the wide receiver. Interior defender Vita Vea has a 14% pass rush win rate (8th) and should exploit backup right guard Wes Schweitzer. Matt Ryan will be forced into underneath routes to tight end Austin Hooper, who is gaining 1.73 yards per route run (12th).

I think the Buccaneers should bring Jameis Winston back next season as he clearly has elite quarterback potential if he can get the interception rate anywhere near league-average. Atlanta needs a change at head coach as they haven’t had a top 10 defense by our metrics since Dan Quinn arrived and Kyle Shanahan’s offense was the reason they made the Super Bowl three years ago. Our model makes Tampa Bay a 1.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 46.7 points. Pass.

Team Stats
Game Log

Falcons
Buccaneers

ATL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 45.1 35.9
Succ Pass Plays 48.6% 52.2%
Sack Rate 6.1% 4.6%
Int Rate 2.3% 1.6%
Deep Pass Rate 17.1% 16.3%
Big Pass Yards 32.1% 41.5%
NYPP 6.7 7.3

Rush

Rush Plays 22.1 26.7
RB YPR 3.5 3.9
Stuff Rate 24.5% 20.6%
Succ Rush Plays 44.7% 48.8%
Big Rush Yards 38.4% 38.1%
Yards Per Rush 3.8 4.2

Game

All Snaps 67.3 62.6
Early Down Succ 48.4% 52.4%
Succ Rate 47.3% 49.5%
Big Yards Rate 33.7% 40.5%
Yards Per Play 5.7 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.5 28.4
Run Ratio 33.2% 43.4%
Starting Field Pos 27.8 29.1
Game Control -2.7 2.7

Points 23.1 25.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIN	12 – 28 L	-18.6	48.0% / 63.6%	8.0% / 9.1%	4.3% / 0.0%	5.4 / 8.8	41.2% / 36.8%	29.4% / 26.3%	4.3 / 4.5	67 / 49	47.4% / 43.2%	46.3% / 42.9%	36.5% / 58.0%	5.1 / 5.5	1.5% / 0.0%	25.4% / 77.6%	26.5 / 33.7
2	PHI	24 – 20 W	4.4	50.0% / 43.1%	2.3% / 5.9%	7.0% / 4.2%	7.0 / 4.6	47.1% / 33.3%	23.5% / 19.0%	3.4 / 2.3	61 / 72	53.1% / 35.3%	49.2% / 40.3%	46.6% / 15.0%	6.0 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.4%	27.9% / 29.2%	23.4 / 38.5
3	@IND	24 – 27 L	-8.1	61.8% / 60.5%	0.0% / 2.6%	2.9% / 0.0%	8.9 / 7.9	50.0% / 41.7%	25.0% / 33.3%	4.7 / 3.3	54 / 62	53.5% / 53.8%	57.4% / 53.2%	35.0% / 34.6%	7.4 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	37.0% / 38.7%	24.0 / 20.9
4	TEN	10 – 24 L	-10.8	48.3% / 44.4%	8.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 8.4	41.2% / 44.1%	23.5% / 32.4%	3.4 / 4.1	75 / 61	50.9% / 44.7%	46.7% / 44.3%	39.1% / 50.1%	5.6 / 6.0	1.3% / 0.0%	22.7% / 55.7%	15.7 / 32.6
5	@HOU	32 – 53 L	-5.3	41.7% / 72.7%	4.2% / 0.0%	2.2% / 0.0%	6.6 / 12.9	30.0% / 55.9%	35.0% / 11.8%	2.9 / 4.9	68 / 67	32.0% / 61.1%	38.2% / 64.2%	27.6% / 58.1%	5.5 / 8.8	0.0% / 1.5%	29.4% / 50.7%	28.7 / 26.5
6	@ARI	33 – 34 L	-4.9	68.4% / 62.2%	5.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.0 / 9.2	52.0% / 34.5%	20.0% / 24.1%	4.1 / 3.5	63 / 66	63.5% / 51.0%	61.9% / 50.0%	37.6% / 55.4%	7.0 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	39.7% / 43.9%	22.4 / 27.3
7	LA	10 – 37 L	-12.4	44.7% / 50.0%	13.2% / 0.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	4.9 / 7.7	46.7% / 50.0%	33.3% / 36.1%	2.5 / 2.5	53 / 74	52.5% / 49.1%	45.3% / 50.0%	17.4% / 32.0%	4.2 / 5.1	3.8% / 0.0%	28.3% / 48.6%	29.0 / 38.2
8	SEA	20 – 27 L	-11.4	59.3% / 59.1%	3.7% / 9.1%	1.9% / 0.0%	8.2 / 7.8	47.1% / 66.7%	29.4% / 15.2%	4.1 / 4.6	71 / 55	61.0% / 72.7%	56.3% / 63.6%	28.7% / 44.7%	7.2 / 5.9	2.8% / 0.0%	23.9% / 60.0%	21.8 / 35.1
10	@NO	26 – 9 W	6.7	33.3% / 46.2%	2.8% / 11.5%	2.9% / 0.0%	4.8 / 5.0	44.1% / 72.7%	23.5% / 9.1%	4.2 / 4.7	70 / 63	37.0% / 63.0%	38.6% / 50.8%	38.5% / 10.6%	4.5 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	48.6% / 17.5%	36.9 / 26.6
11	@CAR	29 – 3 W	15.6	51.4% / 40.0%	8.6% / 9.1%	0.0% / 8.0%	8.4 / 4.9	38.5% / 53.3%	26.9% / 13.3%	2.1 / 5.1	61 / 70	47.7% / 49.0%	45.9% / 42.9%	44.4% / 34.0%	5.7 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	42.6% / 21.4%	35.4 / 22.7
12	TB	22 – 35 L	-7.4	32.8% / 57.1%	9.8% / 0.0%	1.8% / 7.1%	4.6 / 11.2	47.4% / 44.1%	36.8% / 20.6%	3.0 / 3.9	80 / 62	37.7% / 54.3%	36.3% / 50.0%	35.6% / 69.5%	4.2 / 7.2	1.3% / 0.0%	23.8% / 54.8%	29.9 / 24.9
13	NO	18 – 26 L	-8.3	40.7% / 48.4%	15.3% / 0.0%	4.0% / 0.0%	4.4 / 5.9	50.0% / 38.9%	19.2% / 27.8%	3.4 / 5.3	85 / 49	43.8% / 52.6%	43.5% / 44.9%	6.6% / 48.7%	4.1 / 5.7	1.2% / 0.0%	30.6% / 36.7%	30.2 / 35.4
14	CAR	40 – 20 W	9.4	42.9% / 52.2%	2.9% / 10.9%	0.0% / 4.9%	8.6 / 5.3	50.0% / 59.1%	12.5% / 13.6%	5.0 / 4.5	67 / 68	48.1% / 58.6%	46.3% / 54.4%	41.4% / 18.3%	6.9 / 5.1	0.0% / 2.9%	47.8% / 32.4%	39.8 / 21.7
15	@SF	23 – 22 W	-2.1	48.8% / 51.4%	4.9% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.9 / 5.5	45.0% / 55.6%	15.0% / 18.5%	4.5 / 4.4	61 / 62	46.8% / 57.1%	47.5% / 53.2%	27.6% / 34.2%	4.8 / 5.0	1.6% / 3.2%	32.8% / 43.5%	27.6 / 31.4
16	JAC	24 – 12 W	12.4	56.5% / 31.4%	2.2% / 8.6%	4.4% / 0.0%	8.3 / 4.9	40.7% / 45.8%	14.8% / 8.3%	5.0 / 4.8	73 / 59	51.7% / 40.0%	50.7% / 37.3%	43.4% / 43.4%	7.1 / 4.9	0.0% / 1.7%	37.0% / 40.7%	26.1 / 20.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SF	17 – 31 L	-4.2	33.3% / 42.9%	7.7% / 3.6%	8.3% / 3.7%	4.5 / 5.6	53.8% / 34.4%	23.1% / 34.4%	4.7 / 3.1	65 / 60	43.1% / 40.0%	41.5% / 38.3%	27.1% / 48.0%	4.5 / 4.3	1.5% / 1.7%	40.0% / 53.3%	28.6 / 29.4
2	@CAR	20 – 14 W	1.4	39.3% / 40.7%	10.7% / 5.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.8	35.5% / 26.3%	25.8% / 57.9%	3.2 / 2.1	59 / 73	43.5% / 42.9%	37.3% / 37.0%	63.0% / 43.2%	4.9 / 4.8	0.0% / 1.4%	52.5% / 26.0%	26.5 / 27.6
3	NYG	31 – 32 L	5.4	46.3% / 39.0%	9.8% / 12.2%	2.7% / 0.0%	8.7 / 7.6	53.1% / 31.6%	18.8% / 26.3%	4.5 / 3.8	73 / 60	54.4% / 32.6%	49.3% / 36.7%	56.5% / 60.9%	6.8 / 6.4	0.0% / 3.3%	43.8% / 31.7%	30.8 / 26.3
4	@LA	55 – 40 W	10.8	55.8% / 52.9%	4.7% / 2.9%	2.4% / 4.4%	8.7 / 7.0	40.0% / 36.4%	33.3% / 36.4%	2.9 / 2.5	73 / 81	47.5% / 53.6%	49.3% / 50.6%	28.2% / 33.8%	6.4 / 6.4	0.0% / 1.2%	41.1% / 13.6%	33.4 / 25.3
5	@NO	24 – 31 L	-6.3	39.4% / 55.6%	18.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.8%	4.8 / 9.6	50.0% / 29.0%	13.6% / 19.4%	4.3 / 3.6	55 / 67	46.5% / 40.8%	43.6% / 43.3%	43.7% / 42.5%	4.6 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	40.0% / 46.3%	30.4 / 27.0
6	CAR	26 – 37 L	-11.3	42.6% / 44.1%	11.5% / 5.9%	9.3% / 0.0%	6.0 / 6.1	42.9% / 27.6%	7.1% / 37.9%	3.0 / 2.0	75 / 63	44.8% / 41.3%	42.7% / 36.5%	38.3% / 45.5%	5.4 / 4.3	2.7% / 1.6%	18.7% / 46.0%	26.6 / 40.6
8	@TEN	23 – 27 L	-2.0	45.7% / 47.2%	6.5% / 8.3%	4.7% / 0.0%	6.2 / 4.8	33.3% / 23.8%	16.7% / 57.1%	3.5 / 3.4	76 / 57	39.7% / 41.5%	40.8% / 38.6%	35.5% / 55.3%	5.1 / 4.3	2.6% / 1.8%	39.5% / 36.8%	27.5 / 35.4
9	@SEA	34 – 40 L	3.4	47.8% / 60.9%	4.3% / 6.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.9 / 7.5	53.8% / 54.5%	23.1% / 18.2%	3.8 / 6.6	72 / 68	50.9% / 63.3%	50.0% / 58.8%	25.4% / 45.5%	5.8 / 7.2	1.4% / 1.5%	36.1% / 32.4%	31.3 / 31.0
10	ARI	30 – 27 W	1.0	40.4% / 42.6%	7.7% / 4.3%	4.2% / 2.2%	6.5 / 7.3	34.6% / 38.9%	30.8% / 38.9%	4.5 / 4.2	78 / 65	36.5% / 47.1%	38.5% / 41.5%	43.3% / 63.8%	5.9 / 6.4	1.3% / 1.5%	33.3% / 27.7%	23.8 / 28.4
11	NO	17 – 34 L	-10.1	43.4% / 55.6%	3.8% / 2.8%	7.8% / 0.0%	5.6 / 6.1	50.0% / 67.9%	50.0% / 7.1%	4.5 / 3.9	61 / 64	46.8% / 64.6%	44.3% / 60.9%	50.9% / 33.2%	5.5 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	13.1% / 43.8%	23.5 / 33.2
12	@ATL	35 – 22 W	7.4	57.1% / 32.8%	0.0% / 9.8%	7.1% / 1.8%	11.2 / 4.6	44.1% / 47.4%	20.6% / 36.8%	3.9 / 3.0	62 / 80	54.3% / 37.7%	50.0% / 36.3%	69.5% / 35.6%	7.2 / 4.2	0.0% / 1.3%	54.8% / 23.8%	24.9 / 29.9
13	@JAC	28 – 11 W	16.8	43.2% / 23.9%	10.8% / 10.9%	0.0% / 4.9%	6.5 / 4.2	29.0% / 41.2%	45.2% / 29.4%	2.4 / 2.9	68 / 63	34.7% / 28.3%	36.8% / 28.6%	61.0% / 40.9%	4.6 / 3.8	1.5% / 3.2%	45.6% / 27.0%	37.4 / 28.7
14	IND	38 – 35 W	-4.4	62.0% / 29.7%	2.0% / 2.7%	6.1% / 0.0%	9.3 / 6.6	35.7% / 45.5%	10.7% / 31.8%	2.7 / 3.0	78 / 59	53.3% / 32.5%	52.6% / 35.6%	42.1% / 47.2%	6.9 / 5.2	1.3% / 1.7%	35.9% / 37.3%	27.5 / 35.8
15	@DET	38 – 17 W	13.5	59.1% / 35.6%	4.5% / 4.4%	2.4% / 4.7%	10.1 / 5.6	31.0% / 44.4%	17.2% / 27.8%	1.7 / 2.5	73 / 63	49.1% / 37.0%	47.9% / 38.1%	60.4% / 45.8%	6.8 / 4.7	0.0% / 1.6%	39.7% / 28.6%	30.2 / 28.4
16	HOU	20 – 23 L	-5.6	47.1% / 29.7%	5.9% / 13.5%	8.3% / 3.1%	6.5 / 4.4	42.9% / 30.8%	14.3% / 26.9%	5.0 / 2.6	72 / 63	43.4% / 29.8%	45.8% / 30.2%	40.0% / 34.5%	6.0 / 3.6	1.4% / 1.6%	29.2% / 41.3%	24.4 / 35.2

Atlanta Falcons @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun, Dec 29

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis