Game Analysis
Lean – Under (TAMPA BAY (+6) vs Atlanta
Gerald McCoy is ruled out for this game making Atlanta guard Andy Levitre’s tricep injury that kept him out last week less costly for the Falcons. McCoy has the 5th most pressures among defensive tackles this season and Matt Ryan should be able to carve up this Tampa Bay defense allowing 7.5 yards per pass play without a legitimate source of pass rush – especially considering three starters in the secondary are listed as questionable.
Atlanta’s defense allows just 5.6 yards per pass play and the Buccaneers may need to turn to the running game to move the chains. Peyton Barber has been solid recently, averaging 4.6 yards per rush the last two weeks, and he will need to continue that success for Tampa Bay to stay in this game on Monday. The Falcons surrendered 5.5 yards per play to the Buccaneers three weeks ago with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center so it’s possible that the Bucs could have decent success again at home with Jameis Winston at quarterback. I think there is some value in favor of the Bucs but Atlanta has had extra time to prepare after playing last week’s game on Thursday and I’d prefer to pass on the side. I do lean with the Under however, as divisional games tend to go under in the 2nd half of the season and the total on this game is fair.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.3
37.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.3%
46.6%
-
Sack Rate
3.9%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
0.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.6%
14.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.0%
30.9%
-
NYPP
7.4
5.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.5
26.2
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
25.0%
23.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.9%
47.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.5%
38.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
60.8
63.6
-
Early Down Succ
51.1%
49.8%
-
Succ Rate
48.7%
47.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.2%
34.7%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.1
28.9
-
Run Ratio
45.0%
41.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
24.9
29.3
-
Game Control
2.5
-2.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.0
36.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.3%
50.9%
-
Sack Rate
5.8%
3.7%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.5%
20.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
26.9%
37.8%
-
NYPP
6.5
7.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.2
27.8
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
22.6%
26.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.5%
38.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
32.0%
44.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
65.2
64.6
-
Early Down Succ
48.1%
47.7%
-
Succ Rate
45.8%
46.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
29.3%
41.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.4
28.3
-
Run Ratio
38.2%
43.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.3
27.9
-
Game Control
-3.3
3.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@CHI |
23 – 17 W |
2.5 |
50.0% / 31.8% |
6.3% / 9.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.6 / 4.0 |
32.0% / 52.6% |
24.0% / 15.8% |
2.6 / 6.6 |
57 / 63 |
45.2% / 37.5% |
42.1% / 38.1% |
49.7% / 31.2% |
6.6 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.9% / 30.2% |
18.3 / 28.1 |
2 |
GB |
34 – 23 W |
12.4 |
51.6% / 50.9% |
9.7% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 2.0% |
7.2 / 5.8 |
55.6% / 56.3% |
18.5% / 25.0% |
5.2 / 3.8 |
58 / 69 |
55.3% / 53.8% |
53.4% / 52.2% |
50.0% / 24.2% |
6.3 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
46.6% / 23.2% |
26.7 / 22.1 |
3 |
@DET |
30 – 26 W |
6.3 |
48.6% / 40.4% |
5.4% / 4.3% |
8.6% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 5.4 |
48.3% / 31.6% |
13.8% / 26.3% |
5.2 / 3.7 |
66 / 66 |
50.9% / 41.5% |
48.5% / 37.9% |
34.7% / 31.8% |
6.5 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.9% / 28.8% |
27.8 / 29.7 |
4 |
BUF |
17 – 23 L |
-2.0 |
48.8% / 43.5% |
2.3% / 13.0% |
4.8% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 7.1 |
58.6% / 44.7% |
27.6% / 23.7% |
5.1 / 3.1 |
72 / 61 |
56.1% / 47.7% |
52.8% / 44.3% |
30.9% / 27.6% |
5.4 / 4.6 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
40.3% / 62.3% |
25.9 / 21.9 |
6 |
MIA |
17 – 20 L |
7.7 |
50.0% / 45.5% |
5.6% / 0.0% |
2.9% / 3.0% |
6.6 / 4.6 |
47.4% / 46.9% |
42.1% / 25.0% |
5.3 / 4.3 |
55 / 65 |
48.8% / 47.9% |
49.1% / 46.2% |
40.1% / 23.8% |
6.2 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.5% / 49.2% |
20.7 / 30.2 |
7 |
@NE |
7 – 23 L |
-11.4 |
58.8% / 48.4% |
2.9% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 7.8 |
54.5% / 56.4% |
18.2% / 12.8% |
5.5 / 4.2 |
56 / 70 |
65.9% / 57.7% |
57.1% / 52.9% |
26.8% / 38.4% |
6.1 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.3% / 55.7% |
21.9 / 28.8 |
8 |
@NYJ |
25 – 20 W |
-1.1 |
50.0% / 51.4% |
3.3% / 8.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.2 / 6.7 |
37.5% / 22.7% |
28.1% / 36.4% |
4.4 / 2.0 |
62 / 57 |
45.8% / 41.5% |
43.5% / 40.4% |
53.1% / 40.1% |
6.2 / 4.9 |
3.2% / 1.8% |
51.6% / 38.6% |
26.1 / 36.9 |
9 |
@CAR |
17 – 20 L |
-0.4 |
47.5% / 40.0% |
5.0% / 4.0% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
7.6 / 5.2 |
36.8% / 50.0% |
26.3% / 21.1% |
2.8 / 5.3 |
59 / 63 |
52.4% / 50.0% |
44.1% / 46.0% |
39.6% / 43.3% |
6.0 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 3.2% |
32.2% / 60.3% |
20.5 / 35.8 |
10 |
DAL |
27 – 7 W |
4.8 |
63.3% / 40.5% |
3.3% / 21.6% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 3.4 |
29.4% / 45.5% |
44.1% / 22.7% |
3.9 / 4.9 |
64 / 59 |
44.9% / 42.6% |
45.3% / 42.4% |
46.7% / 55.4% |
5.3 / 3.9 |
0.0% / 3.4% |
53.1% / 37.3% |
29.9 / 33.3 |
11 |
@SEA |
34 – 31 W |
8.5 |
53.6% / 48.9% |
3.6% / 6.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
6.8 / 5.0 |
34.4% / 65.2% |
21.9% / 21.7% |
2.8 / 5.9 |
60 / 68 |
40.5% / 57.4% |
43.3% / 54.4% |
37.7% / 46.7% |
4.7 / 5.3 |
1.7% / 1.5% |
53.3% / 33.8% |
33.0 / 36.4 |
12 |
TB |
34 – 20 W |
8.2 |
60.0% / 51.1% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
10.5 / 6.2 |
60.7% / 56.5% |
14.3% / 17.4% |
5.3 / 4.1 |
63 / 68 |
55.1% / 56.4% |
60.3% / 52.9% |
61.4% / 18.8% |
8.2 / 5.5 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
44.4% / 33.8% |
26.3 / 25.0 |
13 |
MIN |
9 – 14 L |
-0.7 |
34.5% / 62.5% |
0.0% / 6.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.0 / 6.5 |
45.5% / 44.1% |
22.7% / 17.6% |
4.6 / 3.2 |
51 / 66 |
46.2% / 59.2% |
39.2% / 53.0% |
23.3% / 16.5% |
5.4 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.1% / 51.5% |
22.4 / 25.9 |
14 |
NO |
20 – 17 W |
-1.9 |
50.0% / 51.4% |
3.6% / 5.4% |
11.1% / 2.9% |
7.5 / 6.9 |
56.4% / 46.7% |
23.1% / 33.3% |
3.4 / 3.3 |
67 / 52 |
56.9% / 53.7% |
53.7% / 50.0% |
40.9% / 53.6% |
5.1 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
58.2% / 28.8% |
24.0 / 26.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
2 |
CHI |
29 – 7 W |
18.1 |
48.5% / 56.5% |
6.1% / 2.2% |
0.0% / 4.4% |
5.9 / 6.3 |
36.1% / 25.0% |
11.1% / 43.8% |
3.3 / 1.3 |
69 / 62 |
41.2% / 50.0% |
42.0% / 48.4% |
14.4% / 6.5% |
4.5 / 5.0 |
1.4% / 3.2% |
52.2% / 25.8% |
31.1 / 27.0 |
3 |
@MIN |
17 – 34 L |
-13.1 |
57.1% / 63.6% |
4.8% / 0.0% |
7.5% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 11.2 |
44.4% / 37.5% |
11.1% / 12.5% |
2.9 / 3.2 |
51 / 73 |
60.0% / 52.7% |
54.9% / 49.3% |
16.7% / 45.3% |
6.7 / 6.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
17.6% / 54.8% |
24.8 / 27.3 |
4 |
NYG |
25 – 23 W |
5.2 |
48.7% / 49.0% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.3 / 5.9 |
42.3% / 35.7% |
19.2% / 28.6% |
4.3 / 3.3 |
65 / 77 |
56.3% / 44.1% |
46.2% / 44.2% |
57.3% / 27.4% |
6.7 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.0% / 36.4% |
29.9 / 27.7 |
5 |
NE |
14 – 19 L |
-4.4 |
48.9% / 51.2% |
4.3% / 7.0% |
0.0% / 2.5% |
6.8 / 6.7 |
55.0% / 47.8% |
20.0% / 17.4% |
4.5 / 4.9 |
67 / 66 |
55.6% / 53.7% |
50.7% / 50.0% |
37.2% / 24.6% |
6.1 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
29.9% / 34.8% |
27.4 / 27.7 |
6 |
@ARI |
33 – 38 L |
-18.1 |
53.5% / 62.5% |
2.3% / 8.3% |
4.8% / 4.5% |
8.0 / 11.3 |
23.8% / 38.5% |
38.1% / 20.5% |
3.2 / 4.2 |
64 / 63 |
40.4% / 56.5% |
43.8% / 47.6% |
51.9% / 53.0% |
6.5 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
32.8% / 61.9% |
28.3 / 33.4 |
7 |
@BUF |
27 – 30 L |
-2.0 |
64.4% / 44.1% |
2.2% / 2.9% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
8.4 / 7.7 |
32.0% / 42.4% |
20.0% / 27.3% |
2.8 / 5.2 |
70 / 67 |
52.5% / 37.3% |
52.9% / 43.3% |
26.4% / 65.0% |
6.4 / 6.5 |
2.9% / 1.5% |
35.7% / 49.3% |
27.0 / 33.7 |
8 |
CAR |
3 – 17 L |
-7.2 |
36.6% / 37.5% |
7.3% / 0.0% |
5.3% / 3.1% |
4.7 / 4.8 |
45.5% / 45.5% |
31.8% / 24.2% |
3.9 / 3.1 |
63 / 65 |
46.0% / 43.2% |
39.7% / 41.5% |
19.4% / 30.5% |
4.4 / 3.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
34.9% / 50.8% |
23.2 / 30.6 |
9 |
@NO |
10 – 30 L |
-15.2 |
37.5% / 67.9% |
12.5% / 3.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.5 / 9.1 |
44.0% / 41.7% |
24.0% / 8.3% |
3.5 / 4.3 |
57 / 64 |
43.2% / 57.8% |
40.4% / 53.1% |
13.0% / 49.3% |
3.5 / 6.4 |
1.8% / 3.1% |
43.9% / 56.3% |
31.5 / 26.6 |
10 |
NYJ |
15 – 10 W |
3.4 |
40.0% / 28.9% |
2.9% / 13.3% |
2.9% / 2.6% |
5.2 / 4.9 |
28.1% / 21.1% |
28.1% / 42.1% |
2.8 / 2.9 |
67 / 64 |
32.7% / 27.7% |
34.3% / 26.6% |
23.2% / 46.2% |
4.1 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
47.8% / 29.7% |
36.0 / 19.0 |
11 |
@MIA |
30 – 20 W |
5.1 |
39.5% / 46.3% |
2.6% / 2.4% |
0.0% / 7.5% |
7.1 / 8.9 |
20.8% / 15.8% |
41.7% / 57.9% |
2.2 / 4.4 |
62 / 60 |
34.7% / 34.8% |
32.3% / 36.7% |
42.4% / 61.2% |
5.2 / 7.5 |
0.0% / 3.3% |
38.7% / 31.7% |
35.9 / 25.2 |
12 |
@ATL |
20 – 34 L |
-8.2 |
51.1% / 60.0% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.2 / 10.5 |
56.5% / 60.7% |
17.4% / 14.3% |
4.1 / 5.3 |
68 / 63 |
56.4% / 55.1% |
52.9% / 60.3% |
18.8% / 61.4% |
5.5 / 8.2 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
33.8% / 44.4% |
25.0 / 26.3 |
13 |
@GB |
20 – 26 L |
-1.6 |
43.6% / 33.3% |
17.9% / 8.3% |
0.0% / 4.5% |
5.9 / 3.2 |
48.6% / 60.0% |
17.1% / 13.3% |
4.7 / 6.7 |
74 / 54 |
43.1% / 52.5% |
45.9% / 48.1% |
34.7% / 40.1% |
5.3 / 5.1 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
47.3% / 55.6% |
25.3 / 28.5 |
14 |
DET |
21 – 24 L |
-4.8 |
58.5% / 61.4% |
7.3% / 0.0% |
5.3% / 4.5% |
6.5 / 8.7 |
62.1% / 33.3% |
13.8% / 38.9% |
4.6 / 2.9 |
70 / 62 |
63.3% / 54.9% |
60.0% / 53.2% |
25.4% / 34.8% |
5.7 / 7.0 |
4.3% / 1.6% |
41.4% / 29.0% |
22.2 / 30.4 |