Atlanta Falcons @

Seattle Seahawks

Mon, Nov 20
5:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 475
Odds: Seattle Seahawks -1, Total: 45.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – SEATTLE (-1) over Atlanta

Lean – Over (see below)

After a slow start to the season, Seattle’s offense turned it around the past month because they’ve added stability on their offensive line with Duane Brown and figured out the solution to their running back woes: Russell Wilson scrambles. In the last 4 games, Wilson has gained 6.5 yards per rush while accounting for nearly 40% of the Seahawks totals rushing yards, the rest of the team has combined for just 2.7 ypr. Seattle gained 6.0 yppl in week 7, 7.5 yppl in week 8, and 5.8 yppl in week 9, before gaining only 4.8 yppl in week 10. The reason for the dip in production last week was directly correlated to Wilson’s inability to find running lanes with 5 attempts for just 19 yards, which can likely be attributed to Arizona’s familiarity. Wilson gains 4.7 ypr against NFC West opponents compared to his 5.6 ypr career average and 3 of the Seahawks 4 games under 5 yppl have come against divisional opponents this season. I expect Wilson and Seattle’s offense to find success this week against Atlanta, a non-divisional opponent that has allowed the 5th most rushing attempts to opposing quarterbacks.

Atlanta’s offense is still undervalued because they rank 16th in scoring but the Falcons are 4th in yards per play (6.1 yppl), which is more indicative of their ability. The Falcons will be without starting running back Devonta Freeman but they have one of the most capable backups in the league in Tevin Coleman. The Seahawks secondary is banged up with Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor out. Sherman was having another excellent season before his Achilles injury, ranking 7th-best among cornerbacks in cover snaps per reception, and Chancellor is also a significant loss. Sherman’s absence leaves the door wide open for a breakout game from Julio Jones.

The model indicated value on the over even without accounting for the injuries to Seattle’s defensive backfield and I’d consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 45 points or less while leaning with Seattle The line has adjusted to the injuries and the Seahawks apply to a very good 112-48-4 ATS Monday night situation.

Note: The Over was released as a Strong Opinion when the total was at 44.5 points. I still lean Over at 46 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Falcons
  • Seahawks
ATL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 34.8 36.4
  • Succ Pass Plays 52.1% 43.6%
  • Sack Rate 4.9% 8.1%
  • Int Rate 2.5% 0.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.9% 16.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 35.1% 31.6%
  • NYPP 7.3 5.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.2 27.2
  • RB YPR 4.3 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 27.0% 23.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.5% 45.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 50.8% 38.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.5 4.2




Game

  • All Snaps 61.0 63.7
  • Early Down Succ 51.7% 46.7%
  • Succ Rate 48.4% 44.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 41.3% 35.1%
  • Yards Per Play 6.1 4.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 29.2
  • Run Ratio 42.8% 42.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 24.2 29.7
  • Game Control 2.1 -2.1
 
  • Points 21.9 19.9
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