Game Analysis
Lean – SEATTLE (-1) over Atlanta
Lean – Over (see below)
After a slow start to the season, Seattle’s offense turned it around the past month because they’ve added stability on their offensive line with Duane Brown and figured out the solution to their running back woes: Russell Wilson scrambles. In the last 4 games, Wilson has gained 6.5 yards per rush while accounting for nearly 40% of the Seahawks totals rushing yards, the rest of the team has combined for just 2.7 ypr. Seattle gained 6.0 yppl in week 7, 7.5 yppl in week 8, and 5.8 yppl in week 9, before gaining only 4.8 yppl in week 10. The reason for the dip in production last week was directly correlated to Wilson’s inability to find running lanes with 5 attempts for just 19 yards, which can likely be attributed to Arizona’s familiarity. Wilson gains 4.7 ypr against NFC West opponents compared to his 5.6 ypr career average and 3 of the Seahawks 4 games under 5 yppl have come against divisional opponents this season. I expect Wilson and Seattle’s offense to find success this week against Atlanta, a non-divisional opponent that has allowed the 5th most rushing attempts to opposing quarterbacks.
Atlanta’s offense is still undervalued because they rank 16th in scoring but the Falcons are 4th in yards per play (6.1 yppl), which is more indicative of their ability. The Falcons will be without starting running back Devonta Freeman but they have one of the most capable backups in the league in Tevin Coleman. The Seahawks secondary is banged up with Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor out. Sherman was having another excellent season before his Achilles injury, ranking 7th-best among cornerbacks in cover snaps per reception, and Chancellor is also a significant loss. Sherman’s absence leaves the door wide open for a breakout game from Julio Jones.
The model indicated value on the over even without accounting for the injuries to Seattle’s defensive backfield and I’d consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 45 points or less while leaning with Seattle The line has adjusted to the injuries and the Seahawks apply to a very good 112-48-4 ATS Monday night situation.
Note: The Over was released as a Strong Opinion when the total was at 44.5 points. I still lean Over at 46 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.8
36.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.1%
43.6%
-
Sack Rate
4.9%
8.1%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
0.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.9%
16.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.1%
31.6%
-
NYPP
7.3
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.2
27.2
-
RB YPR
4.3
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
27.0%
23.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.5%
45.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.8%
38.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
61.0
63.7
-
Early Down Succ
51.7%
46.7%
-
Succ Rate
48.4%
44.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.3%
35.1%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
29.2
-
Run Ratio
42.8%
42.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
24.2
29.7
-
Game Control
2.1
-2.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.6
38.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.3%
38.5%
-
Sack Rate
6.9%
7.4%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
25.5%
23.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.8%
34.8%
-
NYPP
6.8
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.7
25.7
-
RB YPR
2.9
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
28.7%
25.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
36.0%
41.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
47.7%
34.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
67.2
64.2
-
Early Down Succ
44.9%
41.8%
-
Succ Rate
42.8%
39.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.8%
39.1%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.6
27.3
-
Run Ratio
40.9%
39.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.7
26.5
-
Game Control
0.4
-0.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@CHI |
23 – 17 W |
2.5 |
50.0% / 31.8% |
6.3% / 9.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.6 / 4.0 |
32.0% / 52.6% |
24.0% / 15.8% |
2.6 / 6.6 |
57 / 63 |
45.2% / 37.5% |
42.1% / 38.1% |
49.7% / 31.2% |
6.6 / 4.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.9% / 30.2% |
18.3 / 28.1 |
2 |
GB |
34 – 23 W |
12.4 |
51.6% / 50.9% |
9.7% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 2.0% |
7.2 / 5.8 |
55.6% / 56.3% |
18.5% / 25.0% |
5.2 / 3.8 |
58 / 69 |
55.3% / 53.8% |
53.4% / 52.2% |
50.0% / 24.2% |
6.3 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
46.6% / 23.2% |
26.7 / 22.1 |
3 |
@DET |
30 – 26 W |
6.3 |
48.6% / 40.4% |
5.4% / 4.3% |
8.6% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 5.4 |
48.3% / 31.6% |
13.8% / 26.3% |
5.2 / 3.7 |
66 / 66 |
50.9% / 41.5% |
48.5% / 37.9% |
34.7% / 31.8% |
6.5 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.9% / 28.8% |
27.8 / 29.7 |
4 |
BUF |
17 – 23 L |
-2.0 |
48.8% / 43.5% |
2.3% / 13.0% |
4.8% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 7.1 |
58.6% / 44.7% |
27.6% / 23.7% |
5.1 / 3.1 |
72 / 61 |
56.1% / 47.7% |
52.8% / 44.3% |
30.9% / 27.6% |
5.4 / 4.6 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
40.3% / 62.3% |
25.9 / 21.9 |
6 |
MIA |
17 – 20 L |
7.7 |
50.0% / 45.5% |
5.6% / 0.0% |
2.9% / 3.0% |
6.6 / 4.6 |
47.4% / 46.9% |
42.1% / 25.0% |
5.3 / 4.3 |
55 / 65 |
48.8% / 47.9% |
49.1% / 46.2% |
40.1% / 23.8% |
6.2 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.5% / 49.2% |
20.7 / 30.2 |
7 |
@NE |
7 – 23 L |
-11.4 |
58.8% / 48.4% |
2.9% / 6.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.6 / 7.8 |
54.5% / 56.4% |
18.2% / 12.8% |
5.5 / 4.2 |
56 / 70 |
65.9% / 57.7% |
57.1% / 52.9% |
26.8% / 38.4% |
6.1 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.3% / 55.7% |
21.9 / 28.8 |
8 |
@NYJ |
25 – 20 W |
-1.1 |
50.0% / 51.4% |
3.3% / 8.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.2 / 6.7 |
37.5% / 22.7% |
28.1% / 36.4% |
4.4 / 2.0 |
62 / 57 |
45.8% / 41.5% |
43.5% / 40.4% |
53.1% / 40.1% |
6.2 / 4.9 |
3.2% / 1.8% |
51.6% / 38.6% |
26.1 / 36.9 |
9 |
@CAR |
17 – 20 L |
-0.4 |
47.5% / 40.0% |
5.0% / 4.0% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
7.6 / 5.2 |
36.8% / 50.0% |
26.3% / 21.1% |
2.8 / 5.3 |
59 / 63 |
52.4% / 50.0% |
44.1% / 46.0% |
39.6% / 43.3% |
6.0 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 3.2% |
32.2% / 60.3% |
20.5 / 35.8 |
10 |
DAL |
27 – 7 W |
4.8 |
63.3% / 40.5% |
3.3% / 21.6% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
6.8 / 3.4 |
29.4% / 45.5% |
44.1% / 22.7% |
3.9 / 4.9 |
64 / 59 |
44.9% / 42.6% |
45.3% / 42.4% |
46.7% / 55.4% |
5.3 / 3.9 |
0.0% / 3.4% |
53.1% / 37.3% |
29.9 / 33.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@GB |
9 – 17 L |
-2.5 |
40.0% / 50.0% |
10.0% / 8.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
4.5 / 6.2 |
38.9% / 35.5% |
50.0% / 19.4% |
5.0 / 2.8 |
48 / 77 |
44.4% / 44.6% |
39.6% / 44.2% |
58.7% / 37.8% |
4.7 / 4.8 |
2.1% / 0.0% |
37.5% / 40.3% |
27.5 / 25.9 |
2 |
SF |
12 – 9 W |
2.0 |
33.3% / 20.7% |
7.1% / 6.9% |
0.0% / 3.7% |
4.3 / 3.1 |
37.2% / 52.6% |
20.9% / 21.1% |
3.1 / 8.4 |
85 / 48 |
37.5% / 38.9% |
35.3% / 33.3% |
23.7% / 49.2% |
3.7 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.6% / 39.6% |
23.9 / 24.5 |
3 |
@TEN |
27 – 33 L |
-4.9 |
50.0% / 51.6% |
2.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 7.3 |
40.9% / 44.4% |
31.8% / 22.2% |
3.1 / 5.4 |
72 / 67 |
51.8% / 54.9% |
47.2% / 47.8% |
38.8% / 44.9% |
6.0 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.6% / 53.7% |
23.3 / 29.6 |
4 |
IND |
46 – 18 W |
7.0 |
65.5% / 37.5% |
10.3% / 9.4% |
7.7% / 3.4% |
9.8 / 4.3 |
42.4% / 52.0% |
24.2% / 8.0% |
5.9 / 3.9 |
62 / 57 |
47.8% / 44.2% |
53.2% / 43.9% |
67.7% / 30.0% |
7.7 / 4.2 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
53.2% / 43.9% |
20.2 / 28.3 |
5 |
@LA |
16 – 10 W |
-0.8 |
45.0% / 35.4% |
7.5% / 4.2% |
5.4% / 4.3% |
4.5 / 5.7 |
19.2% / 40.9% |
23.1% / 45.5% |
2.4 / 4.5 |
66 / 70 |
31.3% / 33.3% |
34.8% / 37.1% |
8.7% / 44.3% |
3.7 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 4.3% |
39.4% / 31.4% |
35.2 / 29.2 |
7 |
@NYG |
24 – 7 W |
1.0 |
50.0% / 22.5% |
2.5% / 2.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.0 / 3.3 |
50.0% / 41.2% |
21.9% / 17.6% |
3.3 / 2.7 |
72 / 57 |
53.6% / 31.8% |
50.0% / 28.1% |
43.9% / 14.1% |
5.9 / 3.1 |
1.4% / 1.8% |
44.4% / 29.8% |
33.8 / 22.8 |
8 |
HOU |
41 – 38 W |
-1.4 |
51.2% / 45.7% |
4.7% / 14.3% |
2.4% / 10.0% |
10.4 / 10.5 |
17.4% / 50.0% |
39.1% / 17.6% |
1.5 / 4.2 |
66 / 69 |
44.0% / 51.7% |
39.4% / 47.8% |
62.4% / 72.7% |
7.3 / 7.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.8% / 49.3% |
27.4 / 22.4 |
9 |
WAS |
14 – 17 L |
-2.3 |
43.5% / 40.5% |
4.3% / 16.2% |
4.5% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 5.2 |
57.1% / 39.1% |
14.3% / 34.8% |
5.3 / 2.2 |
74 / 60 |
51.7% / 42.6% |
48.6% / 40.0% |
48.5% / 51.6% |
5.9 / 4.1 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
37.8% / 38.3% |
30.7 / 27.8 |
10 |
@ARI |
22 – 16 W |
5.5 |
47.2% / 42.9% |
13.9% / 4.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 5.2 |
20.8% / 20.8% |
33.3% / 41.7% |
3.2 / 1.4 |
60 / 73 |
42.2% / 34.5% |
36.7% / 35.6% |
51.0% / 6.9% |
4.8 / 4.0 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
40.0% / 32.9% |
27.1 / 27.7 |