Game Analysis

Lean – Under (46) – PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) vs Atlanta

• Kirk Cousins did not look comfortable in his first game coming off the torn Achilles as he had a league-high 10.7% turnover-worthy play rate. Cousins moved an average of 3.1 yards per dropback last Sunday, which was the least dropback movement he has had in any game of his career by more than a full yard per Next Gen Stats.
• Cousins could not take normal drops under center and Atlanta’s offense was in shotgun or pistol on 96% of snaps against the Steelers. However, new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson had a clear tell out of these looks. The Falcons had no rushes in the shotgun and an 81% run play rate out of pistol.
• The lack of under center snaps resulted in Cousins having zero play action dropbacks after he had a 31.1% play action rate last season.
• Cousins could be looking at a season trying to play like a statue like we saw with Peyton Manning in his last year. Manning in 2015 averaged 6.2 yppp, which was a yard per pass play worse than his career average. Cousins dropping 1 yppp would put him at 5.8 yppp and this Falcons offense would go from being rated 14th in market priors to more like 22nd.
• Cousins was the only starting QB in week 1 to not attempt a pass with 20+ air yards but he should have more time in the pocket to throw downfield in this game if he is able. Falcons RG Chris Lindstrom ranked 2nd in pass blocking efficiency last season, and he will limit interior defender Jalen Carter, who had 49 pressures last year (14th).
• However, wide receiver Drake London, who is Cousins’ main vertical threat, will be contained by Eagles star CB Darius Slay, who conceded just 0.26 yards per cover snap last week (8th). Cousins will need to take his deep shots to TE Kyle Pitts, who led his position with 11 targets having at least 20 air yards last season.
• Jalen Hurts averaged 7.4 yppp in week 1 which was more in line with 2022 than last season. Strangely, Green Bay’s defense had just a 23.1% blitz rate which was Hurts’ weakness in 2023. I expect Hurts to be blitzed more often on Monday night.
• Philadelphia’s offense had a 66% motion rate in Kellen Moore’s debut at offensive coordinator which was higher than any Eagles game in the last three seasons. Philadelphia had a league-low 35% motion rate in 2023. Hurts threw both of his touchdowns when the play featured motion and both of his interceptions on plays without motion.
• Philadelphia wide receivers AJ Brown and Devonta Smith combined for 203 yards in Brazil. Hurts should have time in the pocket to find the pair again this week with Pro Bowl RT Lane Johnson shutting down edge rusher Matthew Judon, who had just 1 pressure in his Falcons debut. However, AJ Brown has been downgraded to OUT this week.
• Atlanta All-Pro safety Jessie Bates was in the box on 17% of his snaps under new head coach Raheem Morris, which was higher than every game last season, and they will likely keep him down there in this game as the Eagles ran for 144 yards on the ground versus the Packers.
• Our model makes Philadelphia a 4.7-point favorite with a predicted total of 44.0 points.