Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Atlanta (-2.5) over NY JETS

• Atlanta’s offense had a 43.4% success rate last week (11th) without WR Drake London by using 13 personnel (1 RB, 3 TE) on 33 of 55 offensive plays (60.0%), the highest rate of any NFL offense in a single game in the last decade. The Falcons had used 13 personnel three times or fewer in every previous game.
• Kirk Cousins had a 46.2% drop back success rate in week 12 (9th), and I expect Atlanta’s offense to continue using the new heavy personnel on Sunday.
• The Falcons’ defense is improved with LB Divine Deablo’s return to the lineup after his four-game stint on injured reserve. Atlanta’s defense conceded just 3.8 yppl to the Saints.
• Deablo is allowing only 0.24 yards per cover snap, while Falcons’ backup linebackers Ronnie Harrison and JD Bertrand are surrendering 1.31 yards per cover snap.
• Tyrod Taylor will struggle against a Falcons’ defense that is conceding just 5.7 yppp (9th).
• Our model favors the Falcons by 4.6 points with a predicted total of 39.1 points.

Atlanta is a 1-Star Best Bet at -2.5 -115 odds or better (Strong Opinion to -3 -110).