Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – Atlanta Team Total Under (17.5 -120)

NY JETS (+2) over Atlanta

· The Falcons lead the NFL in run rate adjusted for situation but they will be shut down on the ground by a Jets defense conceding a 36.0% rush success rate (8th).

· Desmond Ridder will struggle to throw in the rain under pressure. New York interior defender Quinnen Williams ranks 10th in pass-rushing efficiency and he will wreak havoc across from rookie LG Matthew Bergeron and Atlanta C Drew Dalman, who ranks 8th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.

· The Falcons’ yards per attempt against a standard pass rush this season is only 86% of their yards per attempt against the blitz and Ridder will not have open receivers with the Jets dropping seven into coverage. New York’s defense leads the NFL with an 85.9% standard pass rush rate.

· Atlanta’s offense is targeting running backs on 22.7% of passes (6th-most) but the screen game won’t be there for Ridder as the Jets are conceding only a 37% pass success rate to running backs (8th).

· New York nickelback Michael Carter will be back on the field this week and he is allowing a league-low 0.43 yards per cover snap in the slot. Carter will contain Kyle Pitts, whose 22 receptions from the slot ranks 8th among tight ends.

· Falcons wide receiver Drake London 57% success rate (14th) but he will be limited by cornerback DJ Reed, who is conceding just 0.79 yards per cover snap (9th).

· The Jets only had 40 yards of offense in Tim Boyle’s first start on Black Friday before the Dolphins went up 27-6 in the fourth quarter.

· Atlanta’s defense is allowing -0.19 EPA/rush (2nd) and New York’s ground game will be shut down especially if they give RB Dalvin Cook more touches as was insinuated earlier this week. Cook is gaining just 3.2 yards per carry compared to Breece Hall’s 4.6 yards per rush.

· Jets RB Breece Hall is gaining 1.64 yards per route run (4th) and he could have room in the screen game as the Falcons are surrendering 0.17 EPA/target to running backs (29th).

· Falcons cornerback AJ Terrell is conceding only 0.95 yards per cover snap (18th) and he will contain WR Garrett Wilson, whose 113 targets are more than double any other receiver on New York’s offense.

· Our model favors the Jets by 3.0 points, with a predicted total of 28.0 points, but the better play is on the Falcons’ Team Total Under, which keeps the Jets’ offense out of it.

1-Star Best Bet on Atlanta Team Total Under 17 at -120 or better.