Game Analysis

Note: This Best Bet was released early in the week when Atlanta was +3.5. The Falcons are a Strong Opinion at +3.

1-Star Best Bet – *Atlanta (+3.5) over NEW ORLEANS

· The winner of this game will make the playoffs if the Buccaneers lose. The Saints can also make the postseason with a win combined with losses from the Packers and Seahawks.

· The Falcons lead the NFL in run play rate adjusted for situation and they will control this game on the ground for whoever is under center – Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke. The New Orleans run defense ranks 30th by our metrics and they surrendered 228 rushing yards to Atlanta’s offense in week 12.

· Ridder is averaging 6.0 yppp this season and Heinicke is averaging 5.9 yppp. There is no notable difference between the Falcons quarterbacks.

· Saints’ starting safety Marcus Maye is likely out again and backup S Johnathan Abram will struggle against Atlanta’s tight ends Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith. Pitts is averaging 0.24 EPA/target (10th) and Smith is averaging 1.57 yards per route run (8th).

· The Falcons are targeting running backs on 23.9% of passes (5th-most) but the screen game will be contained as New Orleans’ defense is conceding a 33% pass success rate to running backs (3rd).

· Atlanta RT Kaleb McGary and LT Jake Matthews rank 7th and 14th respectively in pass blocking efficiency and they should limit Saints’ edge rushers Carl Granderson, Tanoh Kpassagnon, and Cameron Jordan, who have combined for 58% of New Orleans pressures.

· Falcons’ head coach Arthur Smith will have clean pockets for his quarterback and he will dial up deep passes to WR Drake London, who has 9 receptions with 20+ air yards (20th).

· Saints RT Ryan Ramczyk is out dealing with a cartilage defect in his knee and backup Landon Young left last week’s game meaning the New Orleans offensive line could be starting 3rd string tackle Cameron Erving. Ramczyk is 0.6 points better than Erving according to our numbers.

· The Saints will not be able to slow down Atlanta’s pass rush by moving the ball on the ground as the Falcons are allowing a league-best -0.20 EPA/rush.

· New Orleans WR Chris Olave is averaging 2.06 yards per route run (19th) but Derek Carr’s favorite target will be shut down on Sunday by cornerback AJ Terrell, who is conceding just 0.78 yards per cover snap (9th).

· Our model favors the Saints by 3.3 points, with a predicted total of 43.2 points. The line is fair but Atlanta has my highest technical analysis rating, as there are a number of independent situations that all favor the Falcons.

· Atlanta applies to a 52-12-2 ATS late-season bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s ugly 20-point loss to the Bears while the Saints apply to an 11-51 ATS situation that is based on last week’s upset win at Tampa Bay. New Orleans also applies to a 23-86-1 ATS subset of a 161-285-8 ATS home favorite situation. NFL sides that get my highest technical analysis rating are 17-12-2 this season, 88-61-3 the last 6 seasons and 58% over decades of tracking.

Atlanta is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3.5 at -115 or better and a Strong Opinion at +3.