Atlanta Falcons @

Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Dec 13
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 171
Odds: Los Angeles Chargers +2.5, Total: 49.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – LA CHARGERS (+2.5) over Atlanta

The Chargers allowed the Patriots to score 45 points last week despite conceding only 4.4 yppl and I certainly don’t expect them to be out-coached like that again on Sunday. Justin Herbert had by far his worst game of the season versus Bill Belichick but was averaging 6.8 yards per pass play prior to week 13 and should bounce-back this week. Keenan Allen is going to feast against this Falcons defense as Isaiah Oliver is surrendering 1.72 yards per route run in the slot, which ranks 23rd out of 24 qualifying nickelbacks. Chargers RT Bryan Bulaga has only played 47% of the snaps this season but he should be back in the starting lineup for this game and is certainly an upgrade over backup Trey Pipkins, who is allowing nearly double the pressure rate of Bulaga.

Atlanta’s offense is no doubt better with Julio Jones on the field playing opposite Calvin Ridley. The two receivers are combining for 2.40 yards per route run this season. However, Matt Ryan won’t have much time in the pocket this week. Joey Bosa has a league-high 19.4% pressure rate and he will dominate Falcons’ RT Kaleb McGary, who ranks 45th out of 57 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency. Linebacker Denzel Perryman sat out last game due to an injured back, but he could be back on the field and is an upgrade over Nick Vigil, as he is conceding a half yard per cover snap less than Vigil this season.

Our model favors the Falcons by just 0.4 points, with a predicted total of 50.9 points, and the Chargers are in a very strong bounce-back mode this week. LAC applies to a 144-52-5 ATS situation that plays on teams coming off a loss of 21 points or more and they also apply to a 46-11-1 ATS off a shutout loss angle and a 47-10 ATS situation that plays on underdogs that have lost 5 or more consecutive games to the number.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Falcons
  • Chargers


  • Pass Plays 41.5 39.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.2% 48.6%
  • Sack Rate 6.2% 5.4%
  • Int Rate 1.8% 1.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 21.3% 21.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 38.5% 42.4%
  • NYPP 6.5 7.3


  • Rush Plays 27.3 24.4
  • RB YPR 3.7 4.0
  • Stuff Rate 19.8% 25.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.5% 46.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 32.2% 46.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.7 4.3


  • All Snaps 68.8 64.0
  • Early Down Succ 47.0% 51.5%
  • Succ Rate 45.6% 48.2%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.8% 43.9%
  • Yards Per Play 5.4 6.2
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.9 27.4
  • Run Ratio 39.5% 38.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.4 28.0
  • Game Control 2.8 -2.8
  • Points 25.9 25.2
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