Game Analysis
Lean – LA CHARGERS (+2.5) over Atlanta
The Chargers allowed the Patriots to score 45 points last week despite conceding only 4.4 yppl and I certainly don’t expect them to be out-coached like that again on Sunday. Justin Herbert had by far his worst game of the season versus Bill Belichick but was averaging 6.8 yards per pass play prior to week 13 and should bounce-back this week. Keenan Allen is going to feast against this Falcons defense as Isaiah Oliver is surrendering 1.72 yards per route run in the slot, which ranks 23rd out of 24 qualifying nickelbacks. Chargers RT Bryan Bulaga has only played 47% of the snaps this season but he should be back in the starting lineup for this game and is certainly an upgrade over backup Trey Pipkins, who is allowing nearly double the pressure rate of Bulaga.
Atlanta’s offense is no doubt better with Julio Jones on the field playing opposite Calvin Ridley. The two receivers are combining for 2.40 yards per route run this season. However, Matt Ryan won’t have much time in the pocket this week. Joey Bosa has a league-high 19.4% pressure rate and he will dominate Falcons’ RT Kaleb McGary, who ranks 45th out of 57 qualifying tackles in pass blocking efficiency. Linebacker Denzel Perryman sat out last game due to an injured back, but he could be back on the field and is an upgrade over Nick Vigil, as he is conceding a half yard per cover snap less than Vigil this season.
Our model favors the Falcons by just 0.4 points, with a predicted total of 50.9 points, and the Chargers are in a very strong bounce-back mode this week. LAC applies to a 144-52-5 ATS situation that plays on teams coming off a loss of 21 points or more and they also apply to a 46-11-1 ATS off a shutout loss angle and a 47-10 ATS situation that plays on underdogs that have lost 5 or more consecutive games to the number.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.5
39.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.2%
48.6%
-
Sack Rate
6.2%
5.4%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.3%
21.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.5%
42.4%
-
NYPP
6.5
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.3
24.4
-
RB YPR
3.7
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
19.8%
25.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.5%
46.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
32.2%
46.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
68.8
64.0
-
Early Down Succ
47.0%
51.5%
-
Succ Rate
45.6%
48.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.8%
43.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
6.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.9
27.4
-
Run Ratio
39.5%
38.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.4
28.0
-
Game Control
2.8
-2.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.8
36.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.7%
43.1%
-
Sack Rate
5.3%
6.0%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.8%
17.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.1%
39.9%
-
NYPP
6.7
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.1
26.5
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.9
-
Stuff Rate
21.1%
19.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.7%
50.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.8%
48.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
5.0
Game
-
All Snaps
72.9
62.8
-
Early Down Succ
46.5%
49.2%
-
Succ Rate
45.3%
46.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.3%
42.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.6
28.5
-
Run Ratio
41.4%
42.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.4
32.7
-
Game Control
-1.9
1.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SEA |
25 – 38 L |
-8.5 |
50.0% /
57.9% |
3.6% /
7.9% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
7.9 |
47.6% /
55.0% |
23.8% /
15.0% |
3.4 /
4.2 |
77 /
58 |
50.8% /
61.7% |
49.4% /
56.9% |
35.6% /
38.1% |
6.6 /
6.6 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
27.3% /
34.5% |
24.7 /
31.3 |
| 2 |
@DAL |
39 – 40 L |
12.6 |
44.7% /
58.0% |
2.6% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
8.9 |
47.1% /
64.5% |
17.6% /
12.9% |
3.3 /
4.0 |
72 /
81 |
43.4% /
63.1% |
45.8% /
60.5% |
38.2% /
46.1% |
5.3 /
7.0 |
0.0% /
3.7% |
47.2% /
38.3% |
40.8 /
24.4 |
| 3 |
CHI |
26 – 30 L |
8.6 |
40.0% /
45.3% |
5.0% /
3.8% |
2.6% /
3.9% |
5.7 /
5.8 |
44.0% /
56.0% |
12.0% /
24.0% |
5.8 /
5.2 |
65 /
78 |
45.1% /
55.9% |
41.5% /
48.7% |
53.1% /
51.9% |
5.7 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.5% /
32.1% |
29.9 /
32.8 |
| 4 |
@GB |
16 – 30 L |
-10.5 |
53.5% /
61.8% |
9.3% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
9.3 |
48.0% /
34.6% |
24.0% /
34.6% |
3.1 /
3.4 |
68 /
60 |
57.7% /
50.0% |
51.5% /
50.0% |
10.4% /
46.2% |
4.8 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.8% /
43.3% |
23.4 /
32.6 |
| 5 |
CAR |
16 – 23 L |
-3.4 |
46.2% /
59.5% |
5.1% /
0.0% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
8.5 |
68.0% /
63.0% |
12.0% /
14.8% |
6.6 /
4.6 |
64 /
64 |
58.3% /
64.7% |
54.7% /
60.9% |
51.2% /
40.3% |
5.8 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.1% /
42.2% |
21.8 /
23.0 |
| 6 |
@MIN |
40 – 23 W |
15.7 |
57.1% /
48.6% |
4.8% /
2.7% |
0.0% /
8.3% |
8.6 /
9.0 |
51.4% /
30.8% |
32.4% /
38.5% |
2.7 /
2.5 |
79 /
50 |
53.4% /
47.4% |
54.4% /
44.0% |
38.1% /
46.8% |
5.8 /
7.3 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
46.8% /
26.0% |
38.3 /
23.9 |
| 7 |
DET |
22 – 23 L |
-0.0 |
56.8% /
44.7% |
4.5% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
8.5 |
38.5% /
33.3% |
30.8% /
33.3% |
2.5 /
3.0 |
70 /
59 |
50.0% /
47.7% |
50.0% /
40.7% |
20.1% /
44.6% |
5.5 /
6.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
37.1% /
35.6% |
16.7 /
28.7 |
| 8 |
@CAR |
25 – 17 W |
1.1 |
59.4% /
36.7% |
6.3% /
10.0% |
3.3% /
3.7% |
8.4 /
5.2 |
41.7% /
59.1% |
13.9% /
13.6% |
3.6 /
6.7 |
68 /
52 |
54.4% /
53.8% |
50.0% /
46.2% |
43.6% /
66.4% |
5.9 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.9% /
42.3% |
23.6 /
28.8 |
| 9 |
DEN |
34 – 27 W |
12.5 |
54.1% /
38.8% |
5.4% /
2.0% |
2.9% /
2.1% |
7.3 /
6.2 |
34.4% /
27.3% |
25.0% /
22.7% |
2.9 /
4.7 |
69 /
71 |
46.3% /
34.0% |
44.9% /
35.2% |
50.7% /
47.9% |
5.3 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.4% /
31.0% |
36.1 /
23.7 |
| 11 |
@NO |
9 – 24 L |
-3.8 |
28.9% /
53.8% |
17.8% /
11.5% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
4.4 /
8.1 |
42.9% /
58.3% |
7.1% /
16.7% |
3.7 /
4.7 |
59 /
62 |
35.7% /
60.0% |
32.2% /
56.5% |
37.5% /
44.4% |
4.2 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
23.7% /
58.1% |
23.5 /
30.4 |
| 12 |
LV |
43 – 6 W |
15.2 |
40.0% /
31.8% |
2.5% /
11.4% |
2.6% /
2.6% |
4.5 /
4.6 |
28.1% /
28.6% |
15.6% /
57.1% |
3.9 /
2.9 |
72 /
58 |
30.0% /
31.8% |
34.7% /
31.0% |
18.8% /
21.4% |
4.2 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
6.9% |
44.4% /
24.1% |
36.8 /
28.6 |
| 13 |
NO |
16 – 21 L |
-6.2 |
35.7% /
46.2% |
7.1% /
5.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
5.6 |
42.9% /
50.0% |
23.8% /
27.8% |
3.3 /
5.8 |
63 /
75 |
38.8% /
47.3% |
38.1% /
48.0% |
56.3% /
32.5% |
5.3 /
5.7 |
1.6% /
1.3% |
33.3% /
48.0% |
25.8 /
28.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2020 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CIN |
16 – 13 W |
-2.4 |
37.5% /
43.6% |
6.3% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
6.5 /
4.4 |
41.0% /
50.0% |
20.5% /
17.9% |
4.0 /
4.4 |
71 /
67 |
42.3% /
48.1% |
39.4% /
46.3% |
39.8% /
12.5% |
5.1 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
54.9% /
41.8% |
25.9 /
33.6 |
| 2 |
KC |
20 – 23 L |
5.4 |
51.4% /
41.7% |
5.7% /
2.1% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
6.0 |
63.6% /
54.5% |
13.6% /
9.1% |
4.2 /
5.7 |
79 /
70 |
61.9% /
44.4% |
58.2% /
45.7% |
32.6% /
41.8% |
6.1 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.7% /
31.4% |
21.7 /
22.3 |
| 3 |
CAR |
16 – 21 L |
-6.1 |
52.9% /
53.3% |
3.9% /
6.7% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
7.4 |
60.9% /
33.3% |
17.4% /
38.1% |
5.1 /
3.9 |
74 /
51 |
53.4% /
51.3% |
55.4% /
45.1% |
27.5% /
42.1% |
5.9 /
5.9 |
4.1% /
0.0% |
31.1% /
41.2% |
24.6 /
37.8 |
| 4 |
@TB |
31 – 38 L |
4.0 |
40.7% /
54.3% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
4.0% /
2.2% |
10.3 /
8.0 |
26.1% /
44.4% |
34.8% /
14.8% |
2.0 /
4.3 |
50 /
73 |
31.6% /
53.3% |
34.0% /
50.7% |
50.6% /
45.5% |
6.5 /
6.6 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
46.0% /
37.0% |
22.1 /
35.3 |
| 5 |
@NO |
27 – 30 L |
6.3 |
40.5% /
50.0% |
8.1% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
6.5 /
6.3 |
31.3% /
52.0% |
31.3% /
16.0% |
3.5 /
3.8 |
69 /
75 |
34.0% /
55.0% |
36.2% /
50.7% |
54.6% /
21.8% |
5.1 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.4% /
33.3% |
25.1 /
29.3 |
| 7 |
JAC |
39 – 29 W |
4.5 |
51.1% /
28.1% |
2.2% /
15.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
4.8 |
46.9% /
59.3% |
18.8% /
18.5% |
4.2 /
5.2 |
77 /
59 |
53.3% /
45.0% |
49.4% /
42.4% |
49.4% /
61.6% |
6.3 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
41.6% /
45.8% |
32.7 /
28.8 |
| 9 |
LV |
26 – 31 L |
-4.3 |
54.5% /
37.5% |
4.5% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
6.7 |
51.6% /
69.2% |
12.9% /
19.2% |
4.1 /
6.2 |
75 /
50 |
54.4% /
55.0% |
53.3% /
54.0% |
33.2% /
60.0% |
5.9 /
6.4 |
1.3% /
2.0% |
41.3% /
52.0% |
29.3 /
34.6 |
| 8 |
@DEN |
30 – 31 L |
4.7 |
45.7% /
37.2% |
4.3% /
4.7% |
4.5% /
2.4% |
6.0 /
5.7 |
55.3% /
37.5% |
13.2% /
25.0% |
5.5 /
6.8 |
84 /
59 |
52.2% /
38.6% |
50.0% /
37.3% |
47.2% /
47.9% |
5.8 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.2% /
27.1% |
29.0 /
29.0 |
| 12 |
@BUF |
17 – 27 L |
-7.9 |
43.6% /
50.0% |
5.5% /
10.7% |
1.9% /
4.0% |
5.3 /
5.7 |
33.3% /
53.3% |
41.7% /
26.7% |
3.2 /
5.7 |
79 /
58 |
43.1% /
54.2% |
40.5% /
51.7% |
31.6% /
48.8% |
4.6 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
30.4% /
51.7% |
26.3 /
30.3 |
| 13 |
NE |
0 – 45 L |
-23.2 |
28.6% /
34.8% |
5.4% /
4.3% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
3.4 /
5.5 |
66.7% /
51.2% |
6.7% /
14.0% |
4.7 /
3.8 |
71 /
66 |
38.3% /
46.9% |
36.6% /
45.5% |
26.4% /
41.9% |
3.6 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
21.1% /
65.2% |
17.6 /
45.6 |
Atlanta Falcons
@ 
Los Angeles Chargers