Game Analysis

Jacksonville (-3) vs Atlanta

Lean – Under (43.5)

· Jacksonville’s postseason chances dropped below 50% after getting upset last week and this London game is almost in must-win territory.

· The Jaguars have lost a league-high 15 expected points from drops this year and Trevor Lawrence is balling despite the mediocre 6.0 yppp (15th). Lawrence ranks top 5 in both short and deep passing grades by PFF. Now if only his receivers could hold onto the ball.

· Falcons’ safety Jessie Bates is co-leading the NFL with 3 interceptions and Lawrence will try to take Bates out of the equation by throwing out-routes to WR Calvin Ridley.

· Atlanta cornerback Jeff Okudah did not allow a reception on 10 coverage snaps last week and I expect his role to be expanded – taking away more snaps from CB Tre Flowers, who is surrendering 11.2 yards per target.

· Falcons’ defensive tackles David Onyemata and Grady Jarrett have combined for 20 pressures and they will be a problem as 74% of Jacksonville’s pressures have been allowed by the interior of the offensive line (31st).

· Atlanta’s offense leads the NFL in situation-adjusted run play rate, but the Jaguars are conceding only a 28% rush success rate (2nd).

· The Falcons like to use heavier personnel packages with both tight ends on the field which allow Jacksonville’s DC to bench Tre Herndon, who’s been their worst cornerback – surrendering 1.84 yards per slot cover snap.

· Atlanta’s offense has a 57% success rate when targeting TE Jonnu Smith, but the Jaguars are allowing just 5.2 yards per target to tight ends (7th).

· Our model favors the Jaguars by 1.3 with a predicted total of 42.4.