Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *INDIANAPOLIS (-6) over Atlanta

• Atlanta’s defense has been getting by due to a 40% pressure rate (6th), but I do not expect them to get Daniel Jones out of rhythm in Berlin.
• The Colts rank 5th in pass blocking efficiency, and the Falcons will likely be without edge rusher Leonard Floyd, who has a 14.8% pressure rate. Backup edge defender Arnold Ebiketie has only a 7.3% pressure rate.
• Atlanta interior defender Ruke Orhorhoro ranks 16th in pass rushing efficiency, but he will be limited by All-Pro LG Quenton Nelson, who has conceded only 9 pressures (5th-fewest).
• Jones will have time in the pocket, and single-high structures play into Indianapolis head coach Shane Steichen’s RPO and play-action strengths, opening seams for vertical shots and quarterback runs. The Falcons lead the NFL with a 63% middle-field closed coverage rate, and the Colts are averaging 18% more yppp versus middle-field closed coverage compared to middle-field open coverages (5th).
• Atlanta LB Divine Deablo’s forearm fracture has been a major obstacle for the defense, as backup linebacker JD Bertrand is surrendering 1.87 yards per cover snap. The Falcons were forced to bench Bertrand, but third-string Ronnie Harrison was also a mark, getting targeted every 4.2 cover snaps he was on the field.
• Indianapolis is the best running teams in the NFL, averaging 0.17 EPA/rush, and RB Jonathan Taylor has a favorable matchup as Atlanta’s defense is surrendering a 46.1% rush success rate (29th).
• The Falcons’ offense is scoring on just 33% of drives (28th), and they will struggle versus an improved Colts defense that just acquired elite CB Sauce Gardner from the Jets.
• Gardner has forced a tight window on a league-high 52% of his targets and has not allowed more than two receptions to a single receiver in a game this year.
• Atlanta LG Matthew Bergeron exited after three plays last week, and he will miss this game. Backup guard Kyle Hinton catches a break with Colts’ DT DeForest Buckner downgraded to out for this game.
• Falcons RB Bijan Robinson is averaging 2.15 yards per route run (2nd), but Michael Penix will not be able to use him as a check-down because Indianapolis is conceding only -0.27 EPA/target to opposing running backs (3rd).
• Our model favors the Colts by 8.5 points, with a predicted total of 47.9 points.

The Colts are a 1-Star Best Bet at -6.5 or less.