Game Analysis
GREEN BAY (-5) vs Atlanta
Last Sunday, the Packers became just the eighth two-touchdown favorite to lose outright in the last decade. Green Bay is are all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and they fired head coach Mike McCarthy. The Packers have just 3 wins since the crazy week 1 comeback versus Chicago and they have come at home against teams with bad quarterbacks – C.J. Beathard, Josh Allen and Brock Osweiler. This seems to be rock bottom in the Aaron Rodgers era and it will be interesting to see if the offense looks any different without McCarthy. Green Bay’s 2nd-rated ground game looks to have a favorable matchup versus a Falcons defense ranked 27th against the run, but having Pro Bowl middle linebacker Deion Jones back in the lineup is a difference maker for Atlanta. The Falcons have allowed just 4.4 yards per play in Jones’ two starts this season compared to 6.7 yards per play in all other games.
Tramon Williams moved to safety after Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was sent to Washington, but he’s been playing nickelback the last two games and the Packers haven’t fully solved their secondary since the trade. Rookie cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson will be on the outside and certainly don’t match up well against Julio Jones, who’s leading the league with 2.91 yards per route run, and impressive youngster Calvin Ridley.
The advanced spread for this game was Packers by 7.5, but last week’s dismal performance has dropped the line by 2.5 points and our model agrees. We make Green Bay a 5.2-point favorite but teams that lose straight up as a double-digit favorite usually bounce-back with a good effort (93-69-5 ATS). But, I’ll steer clear of this game, as it’s possible the moral is simply too low in Green Bay after last week’s loss eliminated them from a possible playoff spot.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.0
36.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.5%
54.9%
-
Sack Rate
7.1%
5.5%
-
Int Rate
1.2%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.6%
19.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.0%
31.9%
-
NYPP
7.2
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.2
27.5
-
RB YPR
3.6
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
29.0%
18.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.1%
53.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.9%
48.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
62.2
63.8
-
Early Down Succ
50.7%
54.5%
-
Succ Rate
50.3%
53.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.3%
37.8%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
29.1
-
Run Ratio
34.4%
43.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.3
27.0
-
Game Control
-1.3
1.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.2
35.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.9%
47.0%
-
Sack Rate
8.2%
8.8%
-
Int Rate
0.4%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.4%
20.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.8%
46.5%
-
NYPP
6.7
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.0
28.6
-
RB YPR
4.6
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
17.8%
17.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.9%
47.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.1%
38.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
62.2
63.8
-
Early Down Succ
51.3%
49.2%
-
Succ Rate
49.2%
46.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.3%
44.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
28.9
-
Run Ratio
35.4%
45.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.0
29.6
-
Game Control
0.3
-0.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@PHI |
12 – 18 L |
0.9 |
31.9% /
32.4% |
8.5% /
5.4% |
2.3% /
2.9% |
4.8 /
3.2 |
44.4% /
53.6% |
27.8% /
21.4% |
4.1 /
4.1 |
65 /
65 |
38.8% /
40.4% |
35.4% /
41.5% |
49.5% /
20.6% |
4.6 /
3.6 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
27.7% /
43.1% |
35.2 /
22.2 |
| 2 |
CAR |
31 – 24 W |
5.0 |
67.9% /
53.2% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
3.6% /
2.2% |
9.7 /
6.8 |
50.0% /
66.7% |
31.3% /
11.1% |
5.3 /
6.7 |
60 /
65 |
59.2% /
58.5% |
58.3% /
56.9% |
55.9% /
44.4% |
7.4 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.3% /
27.7% |
26.2 /
19.5 |
| 3 |
NO |
37 – 43 L |
-0.3 |
63.2% /
56.0% |
7.9% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
7.8 |
21.7% /
53.6% |
43.5% /
14.3% |
2.1 /
5.1 |
61 /
78 |
52.1% /
57.4% |
47.5% /
55.1% |
36.3% /
37.9% |
6.7 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.7% /
35.9% |
24.1 /
29.8 |
| 4 |
CIN |
36 – 37 L |
-0.5 |
61.9% /
52.3% |
7.1% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
9.6 /
7.0 |
45.8% /
56.5% |
12.5% /
8.7% |
3.8 /
4.3 |
66 /
67 |
52.0% /
50.9% |
56.1% /
53.7% |
37.2% /
33.4% |
7.5 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
34.3% |
32.4 /
33.0 |
| 5 |
@PIT |
17 – 41 L |
-8.9 |
56.8% /
84.2% |
16.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
7.1 /
13.2 |
36.8% /
50.0% |
31.6% /
15.6% |
3.3 /
4.1 |
56 /
51 |
39.6% /
51.1% |
50.0% /
62.7% |
36.1% /
39.3% |
5.8 /
7.5 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
62.7% |
20.3 /
36.1 |
| 6 |
TB |
34 – 29 W |
6.3 |
57.1% /
61.9% |
2.4% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
8.2 /
9.3 |
40.9% /
55.0% |
36.4% /
25.0% |
3.2 /
6.2 |
64 /
62 |
49.0% /
59.3% |
51.6% /
59.7% |
40.9% /
32.8% |
6.5 /
8.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.4% /
32.3% |
21.9 /
28.6 |
| 7 |
NYG |
23 – 20 W |
4.5 |
57.1% /
50.0% |
7.1% /
9.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
8.9 |
33.3% /
35.0% |
33.3% /
40.0% |
3.2 /
3.1 |
63 /
62 |
50.0% /
46.9% |
49.2% /
45.2% |
42.2% /
60.3% |
6.7 /
7.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
32.3% |
19.7 /
22.4 |
| 9 |
@WAS |
38 – 14 W |
12.7 |
45.0% /
44.9% |
5.0% /
6.1% |
2.6% /
2.2% |
8.4 /
5.9 |
62.5% /
53.3% |
0.0% /
33.3% |
6.4 /
5.3 |
64 /
64 |
45.1% /
46.9% |
51.6% /
46.9% |
54.4% /
36.6% |
7.7 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
23.4% |
22.7 /
23.8 |
| 10 |
@CLE |
16 – 28 L |
-8.8 |
54.7% /
71.4% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
5.9 /
10.3 |
47.4% /
45.2% |
36.8% /
19.4% |
3.7 /
6.9 |
72 /
52 |
57.4% /
62.5% |
52.8% /
55.8% |
36.1% /
45.7% |
5.3 /
8.3 |
2.8% /
0.0% |
26.4% /
59.6% |
27.3 /
23.6 |
| 11 |
DAL |
19 – 22 L |
-1.1 |
56.8% /
50.0% |
8.1% /
5.9% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
5.6 |
61.1% /
62.1% |
27.8% /
13.8% |
4.4 /
4.6 |
55 /
63 |
60.5% /
58.0% |
58.2% /
55.6% |
39.0% /
28.8% |
6.4 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.7% /
46.0% |
29.1 /
26.8 |
| 12 |
@NO |
17 – 31 L |
-11.9 |
49.1% /
62.5% |
11.3% /
8.3% |
2.1% /
4.5% |
6.4 /
6.8 |
37.5% /
51.4% |
43.8% /
8.6% |
1.6 /
4.4 |
69 /
59 |
45.8% /
68.3% |
46.4% /
55.9% |
42.3% /
32.9% |
5.3 /
5.4 |
4.3% /
0.0% |
23.2% /
59.3% |
29.6 /
33.5 |
| 13 |
BAL |
16 – 26 L |
-2.5 |
36.7% /
50.0% |
10.0% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
5.7 |
37.5% /
61.5% |
31.3% /
11.5% |
2.2 /
4.0 |
46 /
80 |
44.1% /
63.8% |
37.0% /
57.5% |
8.3% /
29.3% |
2.9 /
4.6 |
2.2% /
1.3% |
34.8% /
65.0% |
25.6 /
25.9 |
| 14 |
@GB |
20 – 34 L |
-12.3 |
56.8% /
44.4% |
4.5% /
11.1% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
4.5 |
66.7% /
46.2% |
20.8% /
15.4% |
4.5 /
5.3 |
68 /
62 |
66.0% /
44.7% |
60.3% /
45.2% |
20.3% /
48.8% |
5.1 /
4.9 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
35.3% /
41.9% |
27.8 /
25.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CHI |
24 – 23 W |
-9.5 |
43.9% /
35.9% |
9.8% /
10.3% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
4.0 |
27.8% /
59.3% |
16.7% /
18.5% |
3.8 /
5.1 |
59 /
66 |
40.0% /
48.9% |
39.0% /
45.5% |
59.5% /
38.1% |
6.3 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
30.5% /
40.9% |
30.7 /
25.7 |
| 2 |
MIN |
29 – 29 T |
6.3 |
48.9% /
56.0% |
8.9% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
5.6 /
8.2 |
54.2% /
44.4% |
25.0% /
5.6% |
4.1 /
3.8 |
69 /
68 |
55.4% /
53.7% |
50.7% /
52.9% |
31.3% /
44.4% |
5.1 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
26.5% |
29.9 /
26.5 |
| 3 |
@WAS |
17 – 31 L |
-12.0 |
34.7% /
50.0% |
8.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
4.9 /
11.0 |
64.7% /
32.4% |
11.8% /
10.8% |
5.9 /
4.5 |
66 /
57 |
42.9% /
40.5% |
42.4% /
38.6% |
35.9% /
60.1% |
5.2 /
6.8 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
25.8% /
64.9% |
26.4 /
30.8 |
| 4 |
BUF |
22 – 0 W |
12.8 |
47.6% /
27.5% |
4.8% /
17.5% |
2.5% /
6.1% |
6.7 /
2.2 |
56.3% /
43.8% |
37.5% /
25.0% |
4.4 /
3.6 |
74 /
56 |
50.0% /
37.5% |
51.4% /
32.1% |
49.6% /
31.0% |
5.7 /
2.6 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
43.2% /
28.6% |
27.4 /
27.3 |
| 5 |
@DET |
23 – 31 L |
-13.9 |
80.6% /
52.9% |
11.1% /
17.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.8 /
10.0 |
52.4% /
34.5% |
9.5% /
27.6% |
4.7 /
3.3 |
57 /
46 |
55.6% /
32.6% |
70.2% /
41.3% |
41.2% /
37.7% |
9.2 /
5.8 |
5.3% /
0.0% |
36.8% /
63.0% |
20.5 /
46.1 |
| 6 |
SF |
33 – 30 W |
-1.4 |
37.5% /
52.0% |
6.3% /
8.0% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
8.4 /
9.1 |
52.4% /
66.7% |
14.3% /
13.3% |
5.5 /
5.8 |
69 /
55 |
44.4% /
67.4% |
42.0% /
60.0% |
55.5% /
54.1% |
7.6 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
30.4% /
54.5% |
32.0 /
25.9 |
| 8 |
@LA |
27 – 29 L |
2.6 |
45.5% /
43.9% |
9.1% /
12.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
6.9 |
63.2% /
42.9% |
21.1% /
28.6% |
5.6 /
3.9 |
52 /
76 |
58.1% /
43.6% |
51.9% /
43.4% |
69.4% /
51.3% |
6.9 /
5.5 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
36.5% /
46.1% |
21.1 /
31.7 |
| 9 |
@NE |
17 – 31 L |
-5.1 |
47.7% /
55.3% |
2.3% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
8.2 |
60.0% /
47.1% |
12.0% /
20.6% |
4.7 /
3.7 |
69 /
72 |
54.5% /
61.1% |
52.2% /
51.4% |
36.4% /
55.1% |
5.3 /
6.1 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
36.2% /
47.2% |
19.3 /
29.2 |
| 10 |
MIA |
31 – 12 W |
9.9 |
50.0% /
37.2% |
6.7% /
14.0% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
6.1 /
3.8 |
50.0% /
56.5% |
10.7% /
13.0% |
7.1 /
5.7 |
58 /
66 |
58.5% /
45.8% |
50.0% /
43.9% |
54.5% /
38.1% |
6.6 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
48.3% /
34.8% |
35.7 /
31.4 |
| 11 |
@SEA |
24 – 27 L |
4.5 |
45.7% /
44.1% |
14.3% /
8.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
6.0 |
38.5% /
47.4% |
15.4% /
7.9% |
3.7 /
4.6 |
48 /
72 |
48.6% /
48.0% |
43.8% /
45.8% |
55.2% /
42.5% |
7.5 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
27.1% /
52.8% |
30.4 /
22.3 |
| 12 |
@MIN |
17 – 24 L |
-1.9 |
46.9% /
64.1% |
12.5% /
5.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
8.3 |
52.6% /
29.0% |
15.8% /
19.4% |
4.3 /
3.0 |
51 /
70 |
57.5% /
52.9% |
49.0% /
48.6% |
37.4% /
42.1% |
5.0 /
6.0 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
44.3% |
26.6 /
35.6 |
| 13 |
ARI |
17 – 20 L |
-0.1 |
49.0% /
35.7% |
2.0% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.5 /
4.8 |
56.5% /
43.3% |
26.1% /
13.3% |
4.3 /
6.1 |
74 /
58 |
56.9% /
41.9% |
51.4% /
39.7% |
13.8% /
59.5% |
4.4 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.1% /
51.7% |
25.6 /
24.9 |
| 14 |
ATL |
34 – 20 W |
12.3 |
44.4% /
56.8% |
11.1% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
4.5 /
5.4 |
46.2% /
66.7% |
15.4% /
20.8% |
5.3 /
4.5 |
62 /
68 |
44.7% /
66.0% |
45.2% /
60.3% |
48.8% /
20.3% |
4.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
41.9% /
35.3% |
25.9 /
27.8 |
Atlanta Falcons
@ 
Green Bay Packers