Atlanta Falcons @

Green Bay Packers

Sun, Dec 9
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 111
Odds: Green Bay Packers -5, Total: 50.5

Game Analysis

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GREEN BAY (-5) vs Atlanta

Last Sunday, the Packers became just the eighth two-touchdown favorite to lose outright in the last decade. Green Bay is are all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and they fired head coach Mike McCarthy. The Packers have just 3 wins since the crazy week 1 comeback versus Chicago and they have come at home against teams with bad quarterbacks – C.J. Beathard, Josh Allen and Brock Osweiler. This seems to be rock bottom in the Aaron Rodgers era and it will be interesting to see if the offense looks any different without McCarthy. Green Bay’s 2nd-rated ground game looks to have a favorable matchup versus a Falcons defense ranked 27th against the run, but having Pro Bowl middle linebacker Deion Jones back in the lineup is a difference maker for Atlanta. The Falcons have allowed just 4.4 yards per play in Jones’ two starts this season compared to 6.7 yards per play in all other games.

Tramon Williams moved to safety after Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was sent to Washington, but he’s been playing nickelback the last two games and the Packers haven’t fully solved their secondary since the trade. Rookie cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson will be on the outside and certainly don’t match up well against Julio Jones, who’s leading the league with 2.91 yards per route run, and impressive youngster Calvin Ridley.

The advanced spread for this game was Packers by 7.5, but last week’s dismal performance has dropped the line by 2.5 points and our model agrees. We make Green Bay a 5.2-point favorite but teams that lose straight up as a double-digit favorite usually bounce-back with a good effort (93-69-5 ATS). But, I’ll steer clear of this game, as it’s possible the moral is simply too low in Green Bay after last week’s loss eliminated them from a possible playoff spot.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Falcons
  • Packers


  • Pass Plays 41.0 36.4
  • Succ Pass Plays 53.5% 54.9%
  • Sack Rate 7.1% 5.5%
  • Int Rate 1.2% 2.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.6% 19.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 36.0% 31.9%
  • NYPP 7.2 7.3


  • Rush Plays 21.2 27.5
  • RB YPR 3.6 4.6
  • Stuff Rate 29.0% 18.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 45.1% 53.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.9% 48.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.7 4.9


  • All Snaps 62.2 63.8
  • Early Down Succ 50.7% 54.5%
  • Succ Rate 50.3% 53.2%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.3% 37.8%
  • Yards Per Play 6.0 6.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 0.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.7 29.1
  • Run Ratio 34.4% 43.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.3 27.0
  • Game Control -1.3 1.3
  • Points 24.3 28.2
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