Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – 6-point Teaser (-120) – Atlanta (+8.5) with Cincinnati (+7.5) both at +7.5 or more only

Lean – Atlanta (+2.5) over DENVER

• The Falcons have a league-high 47% rush success rate, but the ground game will be contained by a Broncos defense allowing just 3.9 yards per carry (5th).
• Furthermore, Kirk Cousins’s main two receiving targets WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts could have their production limited, and he will feature Atlanta WR Darnell Mooney instead. Mooney is averaging 0.48 EPA/target (15th).
• Denver CB Pat Surtain is conceding a league-low 0.47 yards per cover snap, and he will shut down London, whose 60% success rate ranks 10th.
• Falcons TE Kyle Pitts is averaging 0.31 EPA/target (5th) but he will be contained by a Broncos defense conceding just a 42% success rate to opposing tight ends (4th).
• Denver’s RBs have a 20% target share (6th-highest) but the screen game will be limited as Atlanta’s defense is conceding a 38% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (4th).
• Bo Nix will instead have to look downfield where he has 18 completions on passes thrown 20 yards or more in the air (3rd-most). The rookie is getting protection from his offensive line to enable him to look downfield but lurking will be safeties former Broncos All-Pro Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates, who has 8 interceptions since the start of last season.
• Our model favors the Broncos by just 1.4 points, with a predicted total of 46.9 points, and Atlanta applies to a 90-25-1 ATS situation.
• While the Falcons are worthy of a Strong Opinion at +2.5, we decided to use Atlanta in a 1-Star Best Bet Teaser (+8.5) with Cincinnati (+7.5).

If the Teaser no longer applies you can play Atlanta as a Strong Opinion at +2 or more.