Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (47.5) – CAROLINA vs Atlanta

Lean – CAROLINA (+6)

• Kirk Cousins had 509 passing yards last week and the market was quick to upgrade Atlanta’s offense into the top 10, but I believe it is an overreaction and don’t expect many points this week given the limited amount of plays in a division matchup.
• Both these defenses are run funnels that encourage opposing offenses to go on long drives and milk the clock. The Falcons are allowing a 47.7% rush success rate (30th) and the Panthers defense has gone against only a 40% neutral pass-play rate (4th-lowest) because Pro Bowl interior defender Derrick Brown is out for the year with a meniscus injury.
• However, I doubt Atlanta’s ground game will be able to run as well as other offenses on Carolina’s defense because the Falcons are averaging -0.18 EPA/rush (28th).
• Carolina’s offensive line will be missing two starters on Sunday, further encouraging them to not put too many dropbacks on the shoulders of Andy Dalton. C Austin Corbett has conceded only 3 pressures (3rd-fewest) and RT Taylor Moton ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency. Corbett and Moton are both out and are worth 1.3 points to the Panthers offense.
• This game will be 1.1 points slower than average according to our numbers.
• Dalton will struggle when Carolina’s offense does get behind the chains because he is averaging -0.33 EPA/dropback versus zone coverage, ranking only ahead of Deshaun Watson, and Atlanta’s defense has a 84% zone coverage rate (5th).
• Panthers WR Xavier Leggette is banged up with a shoulder injury and WR Diontae Johnson will be shut down by cornerback AJ Terrell, who is allowing just 0.85 yards per cover snap (17th).
• Our model favors the Falcons by 6.2 points, with a predicted total of 43.8 points. I’ll Lean with Carolina based on a 19-46-1 ATS situation that applies to Atlanta. Road favorites of more than 3 points after playing 3 consecutive home games (and not coming off a bye) are bad bets historically. Carolina, meanwhile, applies to a 78-25 ATS home underdog situation that plays on teams coming off a loss of more than 21 points.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 47 points or more.