Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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CAROLINA (-1) vs Atlanta

Atlanta’s top 5 offense will square off against Carolina’s top 5 defense on Sunday. The Falcons offense is gaining 6.2 yppl (2nd) and, while Matt Ryan has dropped off a bit from his career year last season, they actually have a better rushing attack this year – averaging 4.8 yards per rush (4th) compared to last year’s 4.5 yards per rush. However, it could be difficult this week against a Panthers rush defense ranked third in my metrics. This will be the 4th top-5 ranked offense, based on yards per play,that Carolina’s defense has faced this season. The Panthers allowed the Saints 6.4 yppl, but held the Patriots and Buccaneers to 5.6 and 4.4 yppl respectively.

On the other side of the ball, Carolina’s offense will go against an Atlanta defense that has benefitted from an easy schedule. The Falcons are holding opponents to 5.0 yppl but have only faced one above average offense so far (New England) and actually rate a bit below average in compensated yppl. Atlanta will face another bad offensive team today, as Carolina is 0.8 yppl worse than average offensively and has been getting worse – averaging just 4.0 yppl in their last 3 games.

Atlanta applies to a negative 46-113-7 ATS situation today but our model favors the Falcons by 2 points in this game. I’d lean with Carolina if the Panthers became an underdog but otherwise I have no opinion.

Team Stats
Game Log

Falcons
Panthers

ATL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 34.7 38.0
Succ Pass Plays 51.1% 44.6%
Sack Rate 5.1% 6.7%
Int Rate 2.3% 0.7%
Deep Pass Rate 18.8% 16.7%
Big Pass Yards 35.3% 28.5%
NYPP 7.3 5.9

Rush

Rush Plays 26.1 26.4
RB YPR 4.6 3.8
Stuff Rate 24.6% 23.6%
Succ Rush Plays 47.7% 44.5%
Big Rush Yards 49.3% 32.6%
Yards Per Rush 4.8 4.0

Game

All Snaps 60.9 64.4
Early Down Succ 52.6% 46.8%
Succ Rate 49.5% 44.5%
Big Yards Rate 40.8% 31.0%
Yards Per Play 6.2 5.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.6 29.0
Run Ratio 42.9% 41.1%
Starting Field Pos 23.9 28.2
Game Control 2.1 -2.1

Points 21.9 21.7

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CHI	23 – 17 W	2.5	50.0% / 31.8%	6.3% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.6 / 4.0	32.0% / 52.6%	24.0% / 15.8%	2.6 / 6.6	57 / 63	45.2% / 37.5%	42.1% / 38.1%	49.7% / 31.2%	6.6 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.9% / 30.2%	18.3 / 28.1
2	GB	34 – 23 W	12.4	51.6% / 50.9%	9.7% / 5.7%	0.0% / 2.0%	7.2 / 5.8	55.6% / 56.3%	18.5% / 25.0%	5.2 / 3.8	58 / 69	55.3% / 53.8%	53.4% / 52.2%	50.0% / 24.2%	6.3 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.4%	46.6% / 23.2%	26.7 / 22.1
3	@DET	30 – 26 W	6.3	48.6% / 40.4%	5.4% / 4.3%	8.6% / 0.0%	7.5 / 5.4	48.3% / 31.6%	13.8% / 26.3%	5.2 / 3.7	66 / 66	50.9% / 41.5%	48.5% / 37.9%	34.7% / 31.8%	6.5 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	43.9% / 28.8%	27.8 / 29.7
4	BUF	17 – 23 L	-2.0	48.8% / 43.5%	2.3% / 13.0%	4.8% / 0.0%	5.6 / 7.1	58.6% / 44.7%	27.6% / 23.7%	5.1 / 3.1	72 / 61	56.1% / 47.7%	52.8% / 44.3%	30.9% / 27.6%	5.4 / 4.6	1.4% / 0.0%	40.3% / 62.3%	25.9 / 21.9
6	MIA	17 – 20 L	7.7	50.0% / 45.5%	5.6% / 0.0%	2.9% / 3.0%	6.6 / 4.6	47.4% / 46.9%	42.1% / 25.0%	5.3 / 4.3	55 / 65	48.8% / 47.9%	49.1% / 46.2%	40.1% / 23.8%	6.2 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	34.5% / 49.2%	20.7 / 30.2
7	@NE	7 – 23 L	-11.4	58.8% / 48.4%	2.9% / 6.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 7.8	54.5% / 56.4%	18.2% / 12.8%	5.5 / 4.2	56 / 70	65.9% / 57.7%	57.1% / 52.9%	26.8% / 38.4%	6.1 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	39.3% / 55.7%	21.9 / 28.8
8	@NYJ	25 – 20 W	-1.1	50.0% / 51.4%	3.3% / 8.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 6.7	37.5% / 22.7%	28.1% / 36.4%	4.4 / 2.0	62 / 57	45.8% / 41.5%	43.5% / 40.4%	53.1% / 40.1%	6.2 / 4.9	3.2% / 1.8%	51.6% / 38.6%	26.1 / 36.9

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@SF	23 – 3 W	12.4	45.8% / 46.2%	0.0% / 10.3%	4.2% / 2.9%	7.1 / 4.3	39.0% / 26.7%	14.6% / 26.7%	2.9 / 3.4	65 / 54	42.6% / 48.7%	41.5% / 40.7%	29.7% / 33.6%	4.5 / 4.0	1.5% / 1.9%	63.1% / 27.8%	33.7 / 30.1
2	BUF	9 – 3 W	4.0	50.0% / 35.7%	15.8% / 10.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.7 / 3.8	34.5% / 21.7%	37.9% / 39.1%	2.7 / 3.0	67 / 51	44.9% / 30.6%	43.3% / 29.4%	39.1% / 20.5%	3.8 / 3.5	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 45.1%	31.3 / 21.1
3	NO	13 – 34 L	-8.6	43.2% / 46.7%	10.8% / 3.3%	9.1% / 0.0%	4.2 / 7.1	77.3% / 55.6%	4.5% / 25.9%	6.0 / 5.5	59 / 57	57.8% / 51.1%	55.9% / 50.9%	40.3% / 55.5%	4.9 / 6.4	0.0% / 0.0%	37.3% / 47.4%	25.2 / 37.8
4	@NE	33 – 30 W	1.9	61.3% / 60.4%	6.5% / 6.3%	3.4% / 0.0%	9.8 / 6.1	51.7% / 73.7%	20.7% / 21.1%	4.8 / 4.2	60 / 67	54.9% / 66.7%	56.7% / 64.2%	48.0% / 22.0%	7.4 / 5.6	1.7% / 0.0%	48.3% / 28.4%	26.7 / 26.1
5	@DET	27 – 24 W	6.3	50.0% / 51.2%	8.3% / 14.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.3 / 4.7	17.6% / 40.0%	32.4% / 40.0%	0.9 / 3.3	70 / 56	37.0% / 52.4%	34.3% / 48.2%	53.7% / 53.7%	5.2 / 4.3	0.0% / 1.8%	48.6% / 26.8%	31.7 / 29.8
6	PHI	23 – 28 L	-3.0	37.0% / 39.4%	3.7% / 9.1%	5.8% / 0.0%	4.2 / 6.3	48.0% / 37.9%	40.0% / 27.6%	3.2 / 3.6	79 / 62	45.0% / 41.9%	40.5% / 38.7%	20.7% / 54.2%	3.9 / 5.0	0.0% / 1.6%	31.6% / 46.8%	30.0 / 32.9
7	@CHI	3 – 17 L	-11.4	41.0% / 18.2%	12.8% / 36.4%	5.9% / 0.0%	4.7 / 7.7	33.3% / 32.3%	33.3% / 16.1%	3.6 / 2.3	69 / 42	37.7% / 41.7%	37.7% / 28.6%	49.8% / 67.3%	4.2 / 3.7	1.4% / 0.0%	43.5% / 73.8%	24.6 / 28.7
8	@TB	17 – 3 W	7.2	37.5% / 36.6%	0.0% / 7.3%	3.1% / 5.3%	4.8 / 4.7	45.5% / 45.5%	24.2% / 31.8%	3.1 / 3.9	65 / 63	43.2% / 46.0%	41.5% / 39.7%	30.5% / 19.4%	3.9 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.6%	50.8% / 34.9%	30.6 / 23.2

Atlanta Falcons @

Carolina Panthers

Sun, Nov 5

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis