Game Analysis
BUFFALO (-14.5) vs Atlanta
Lean – Over (45.5)
Josh Allen averaged 8.3 yards per attempt and had a touchdown on dropbacks of 4+ seconds last week and he should have time in the pocket again on Sunday as Atlanta’s defense has a league-low 16.5% pressure rate. Falcons CB has conceded fewer than 10 yards in his coverage in five-straight games and he will shut down WR Stefon Diggs, who has 11 deep receptions (4th). However, Buffalo’s offense has great receiving depth with Gabriel Davis averaging 10.2 yards per target and Emmanuel Sanders averaging 8.7 yards per target. Bills 5th WR Isaiah McKenzie had 125 yards against the Patriots last Sunday.
Kyle Pitts is 127 yards from breaking Mike Ditka’s rookie tight end receiving record, but he could struggle this week against Buffalo safety Micah Hyde, who is excellent in coverage and had 2 interceptions and conceded only a single reception versus New England last week. Cordarrelle Patterson leads all running backs averaging 2.32 yards per route run but the Bills have allowed 456 receiving yards to opposing RBs this season (5th). Matt Ryan’s offense likely needs to score at least two touchdowns for this game to get over but it could be a slog with his top receiving options facing difficult matchups.
Our model favors the Bills by 17.6 points, with a predicted total of 48.3 points, and lean with the over based on the math. The situation favors Atlanta, as the Falcons apply to a 112-48-5 ATS late season contrary situation, so I’ll pass the side despite model value on the Bills.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.60
36.20
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.4%
50.6%
-
Sack Rate
5.8%
2.9%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
12.8%
17.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
31.6%
32.1%
-
NYPP
6.10
6.74
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.93
28.60
-
RB YPR
3.66
3.96
-
Stuff Rate
26.7%
18.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.3%
53.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.1%
32.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.60
4.23
Game
-
All Snaps
60.53
64.80
-
Early Down Succ
45.5%
53.6%
-
Succ Rate
43.6%
51.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
33.8%
32.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.11
5.63
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.56
28.78
-
Run Ratio
39.5%
44.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-1.92
1.92
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.53
34.40
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.8%
40.3%
-
Sack Rate
4.3%
5.4%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
3.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.7%
14.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.1%
28.9%
-
NYPP
6.43
5.08
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.60
26.80
-
RB YPR
3.98
4.23
-
Stuff Rate
23.7%
29.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.0%
43.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.7%
50.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.70
4.28
Game
-
All Snaps
66.13
61.20
-
Early Down Succ
53.2%
44.5%
-
Succ Rate
50.9%
41.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.1%
37.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.76
4.73
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.19
28.92
-
Run Ratio
38.7%
43.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
5.37
-5.37
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
PHI |
6 – 32 L |
-7.50 |
39.5% /
55.6% |
7.9% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.58 /
7.25 |
42.3% /
58.1% |
26.9% /
12.9% |
4.77 /
5.58 |
64 /
67 |
47.8% /
61.5% |
40.6% /
56.7% |
24.3% /
35.5% |
4.06 /
6.48 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.6% /
46.3% |
20.00 /
35.00 |
| 2 |
@TB |
25 – 48 L |
-9.88 |
46.9% /
48.7% |
2.0% /
7.7% |
6.3% /
0.0% |
5.98 /
6.64 |
30.0% /
57.1% |
40.0% /
28.6% |
2.75 /
3.90 |
69 /
60 |
44.0% /
57.8% |
42.0% /
51.7% |
35.5% /
44.1% |
5.04 /
5.68 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
29.0% /
35.0% |
27.29 /
39.75 |
| 3 |
@NYG |
17 – 14 W |
-2.05 |
41.0% /
51.4% |
7.7% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.82 /
6.65 |
30.0% /
55.6% |
15.0% /
29.6% |
3.45 /
3.70 |
59 /
64 |
38.6% /
56.3% |
37.3% /
53.1% |
42.0% /
20.8% |
5.02 /
5.41 |
1.7% /
1.6% |
33.9% /
42.2% |
29.40 /
22.40 |
| 4 |
WAS |
30 – 34 L |
3.18 |
51.2% /
52.9% |
2.3% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.40 /
8.53 |
39.3% /
53.6% |
21.4% /
21.4% |
3.54 /
4.36 |
71 /
62 |
41.8% /
56.0% |
46.5% /
53.2% |
30.4% /
46.4% |
5.27 /
6.65 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.4% /
45.2% |
25.10 /
27.89 |
| 5 |
NYJ |
27 – 20 W |
9.52 |
54.3% /
41.2% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
7.43 /
4.88 |
44.8% /
72.2% |
17.2% /
11.1% |
3.72 /
3.56 |
75 /
52 |
46.7% /
55.0% |
50.7% /
51.9% |
27.1% /
27.3% |
6.00 /
4.42 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
34.6% |
29.20 /
28.11 |
| 7 |
@MIA |
30 – 28 W |
2.83 |
51.2% /
58.5% |
2.4% /
2.4% |
2.5% /
5.0% |
7.93 /
6.85 |
36.4% /
51.7% |
13.6% /
10.3% |
3.27 /
4.55 |
63 /
70 |
46.9% /
55.2% |
46.0% /
55.7% |
52.0% /
12.5% |
6.30 /
5.90 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
34.9% /
41.4% |
29.18 /
31.90 |
| 8 |
CAR |
13 – 19 L |
0.36 |
43.3% /
40.0% |
10.0% /
0.0% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
4.37 /
5.16 |
45.0% /
59.6% |
25.0% /
17.0% |
4.10 /
4.32 |
50 /
72 |
47.4% /
50.9% |
44.0% /
52.8% |
14.0% /
26.5% |
4.26 /
4.61 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
40.0% /
65.3% |
31.10 /
27.45 |
| 9 |
@NO |
27 – 25 W |
6.11 |
56.3% /
50.0% |
6.3% /
2.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.38 /
6.07 |
16.0% /
44.0% |
44.0% /
16.0% |
1.36 /
4.36 |
57 /
69 |
40.5% /
52.6% |
38.6% /
47.8% |
54.6% /
23.5% |
6.42 /
5.45 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
43.9% /
36.2% |
29.27 /
33.20 |
| 10 |
@DAL |
3 – 43 L |
-23.04 |
31.0% /
57.1% |
6.9% /
0.0% |
11.1% /
0.0% |
3.83 /
9.06 |
41.7% /
43.2% |
20.8% /
21.6% |
4.29 /
3.08 |
53 /
72 |
46.2% /
49.1% |
35.8% /
50.0% |
26.5% /
30.2% |
4.04 /
5.99 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
45.3% /
51.4% |
26.75 /
29.73 |
| 11 |
NE |
0 – 25 L |
-9.70 |
41.7% /
51.7% |
11.1% /
10.3% |
12.5% /
3.8% |
3.47 /
6.00 |
31.3% /
50.0% |
43.8% /
33.3% |
2.50 /
4.47 |
52 /
59 |
45.9% /
57.8% |
38.5% /
50.8% |
11.1% /
25.5% |
3.17 /
5.22 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.8% /
50.8% |
21.45 /
33.00 |
| 12 |
@JAX |
21 – 14 W |
8.35 |
53.3% /
37.2% |
3.3% /
2.3% |
3.4% /
2.4% |
6.10 /
5.02 |
51.7% /
67.9% |
17.2% /
7.1% |
5.14 /
5.04 |
59 /
71 |
56.5% /
50.0% |
52.5% /
49.3% |
30.7% /
39.0% |
5.63 /
5.03 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
49.2% /
39.4% |
30.70 /
24.10 |
| 13 |
TB |
17 – 30 L |
-5.84 |
52.2% /
56.9% |
10.9% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
5.63 /
7.22 |
47.8% /
41.2% |
34.8% /
17.6% |
5.26 /
3.35 |
69 /
68 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
50.7% /
52.9% |
34.9% /
29.2% |
5.51 /
6.25 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
25.0% |
23.33 /
21.70 |
| 14 |
@CAR |
29 – 21 W |
4.93 |
35.7% /
55.6% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
6.79 /
6.75 |
47.2% /
42.3% |
27.8% /
26.9% |
3.56 /
3.50 |
64 /
62 |
37.5% /
54.2% |
42.2% /
50.0% |
38.7% /
27.9% |
4.97 /
5.39 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
56.3% /
41.9% |
36.80 /
26.70 |
| 15 |
@SF |
13 – 31 L |
-7.76 |
37.1% /
54.2% |
8.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.09 /
9.79 |
39.1% /
50.0% |
34.8% /
15.6% |
2.70 /
5.06 |
58 /
56 |
41.5% /
51.1% |
37.9% /
51.8% |
46.6% /
55.7% |
4.74 /
7.09 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
39.7% /
57.1% |
38.45 /
19.11 |
| 16 |
DET |
20 – 16 W |
1.72 |
55.6% /
45.7% |
11.1% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
7.67 /
5.94 |
33.3% /
51.5% |
27.8% /
15.2% |
2.61 /
3.94 |
45 /
68 |
52.9% /
47.9% |
46.7% /
48.5% |
13.4% /
36.7% |
5.64 /
4.97 |
2.2% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
48.5% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
PIT |
16 – 23 L |
2.06 |
44.4% /
44.1% |
5.6% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.70 /
5.21 |
48.0% /
33.3% |
16.0% /
42.9% |
4.68 /
3.57 |
79 /
55 |
47.4% /
42.9% |
45.6% /
40.0% |
22.7% /
43.0% |
4.70 /
4.58 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
31.6% /
38.2% |
32.64 /
29.45 |
| 2 |
@MIA |
35 – 0 W |
18.46 |
38.2% /
36.0% |
2.9% /
12.0% |
3.0% /
2.3% |
5.03 /
2.90 |
43.3% /
25.0% |
26.7% /
35.0% |
4.77 /
3.55 |
64 /
70 |
36.0% /
33.3% |
40.6% /
32.9% |
52.5% /
11.9% |
4.91 /
3.09 |
1.6% /
2.9% |
46.9% /
28.6% |
31.77 /
33.58 |
| 3 |
WAS |
43 – 21 W |
13.76 |
63.6% /
42.3% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
0.0% /
8.0% |
8.16 /
9.00 |
51.5% /
41.7% |
24.2% /
29.2% |
3.70 /
3.21 |
77 /
50 |
59.0% /
47.2% |
58.4% /
42.0% |
28.3% /
46.0% |
6.25 /
6.22 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
42.9% /
48.0% |
40.75 /
27.00 |
| 4 |
HST |
40 – 0 W |
15.47 |
61.3% /
29.2% |
3.2% /
12.5% |
3.3% /
19.0% |
8.10 /
2.54 |
62.5% /
27.8% |
17.5% /
22.2% |
4.98 /
2.67 |
71 /
42 |
67.9% /
33.3% |
62.0% /
28.6% |
45.3% /
16.3% |
6.34 /
2.60 |
0.0% /
2.4% |
56.3% /
42.9% |
39.17 /
30.92 |
| 5 |
@KC |
38 – 20 W |
8.36 |
46.2% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
12.12 /
4.86 |
50.0% /
56.5% |
35.7% /
21.7% |
4.32 /
5.22 |
54 /
79 |
48.8% /
56.3% |
48.1% /
51.9% |
64.7% /
18.9% |
8.07 /
4.96 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
51.9% /
29.1% |
28.50 /
26.40 |
| 6 |
@TEN |
31 – 34 L |
2.27 |
54.0% /
44.8% |
6.0% /
0.0% |
2.1% /
3.4% |
6.70 /
7.45 |
43.5% /
45.5% |
21.7% /
31.8% |
3.57 /
6.64 |
73 /
51 |
52.6% /
45.0% |
50.7% /
45.1% |
26.4% /
54.7% |
5.71 /
7.10 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.5% /
43.1% |
25.80 /
28.55 |
| 8 |
MIA |
26 – 11 W |
3.32 |
46.5% /
39.0% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.79 /
4.73 |
34.8% /
43.5% |
39.1% /
26.1% |
4.43 /
2.96 |
66 /
64 |
42.3% /
44.7% |
42.4% /
40.6% |
28.2% /
35.5% |
5.32 /
4.09 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
34.8% /
35.9% |
30.00 /
28.27 |
| 9 |
@JAX |
6 – 9 L |
-0.59 |
43.1% /
33.3% |
7.8% /
6.7% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
4.49 /
4.63 |
35.7% /
33.3% |
21.4% /
37.0% |
5.14 /
2.93 |
65 /
57 |
45.7% /
36.6% |
41.5% /
33.3% |
29.5% /
33.5% |
4.63 /
3.82 |
1.5% /
1.8% |
21.5% /
47.4% |
27.67 /
32.90 |
| 10 |
@NYJ |
45 – 17 W |
18.89 |
66.7% /
41.7% |
6.7% /
2.1% |
3.6% /
8.5% |
11.67 /
6.17 |
66.7% /
50.0% |
25.0% /
40.9% |
5.79 /
3.18 |
54 /
70 |
69.6% /
48.1% |
66.7% /
44.3% |
60.6% /
33.4% |
9.06 /
5.23 |
1.9% /
1.4% |
44.4% /
31.4% |
33.69 /
25.58 |
| 11 |
IND |
15 – 41 L |
-15.20 |
51.2% /
45.0% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
7.5% /
0.0% |
5.27 /
5.30 |
69.2% /
65.2% |
7.7% /
19.6% |
7.00 /
5.74 |
54 /
66 |
58.1% /
58.5% |
55.6% /
59.1% |
27.9% /
43.0% |
5.69 /
5.61 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
24.1% /
69.7% |
22.56 /
46.56 |
| 12 |
@NO |
31 – 6 W |
12.57 |
70.0% /
40.6% |
6.7% /
6.3% |
7.1% /
3.3% |
8.27 /
4.56 |
50.0% /
16.0% |
21.9% /
44.0% |
3.53 /
1.76 |
62 /
57 |
58.3% /
28.2% |
59.7% /
29.8% |
42.4% /
16.9% |
5.82 /
3.33 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.6% /
43.9% |
38.50 /
21.45 |
| 13 |
NE |
10 – 14 L |
-2.88 |
43.8% /
33.3% |
6.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.09 /
6.33 |
44.0% /
30.4% |
16.0% /
37.0% |
3.96 /
4.83 |
57 /
49 |
51.2% /
34.3% |
43.9% /
30.6% |
26.2% /
66.4% |
4.04 /
4.92 |
1.8% /
2.0% |
43.9% /
93.9% |
39.60 /
22.90 |
| 14 |
@TB |
27 – 33 L |
-10.94 |
42.1% /
47.9% |
5.3% /
4.2% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
5.14 /
7.31 |
73.7% /
55.2% |
15.8% /
24.1% |
9.11 /
4.72 |
76 /
77 |
59.6% /
52.5% |
50.0% /
50.6% |
49.7% /
45.0% |
6.13 /
6.34 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.0% /
37.7% |
25.54 /
23.71 |
| 15 |
CAR |
31 – 14 W |
8.64 |
44.7% /
31.0% |
10.5% /
9.5% |
2.9% /
2.6% |
5.08 /
2.95 |
40.7% /
44.8% |
33.3% /
20.7% |
4.41 /
5.21 |
65 /
71 |
42.9% /
40.4% |
43.1% /
36.6% |
31.0% /
31.9% |
4.80 /
3.87 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.5% /
40.8% |
33.42 /
31.82 |
| 16 |
@NE |
33 – 21 W |
6.31 |
57.4% /
33.3% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
6.68 /
4.21 |
53.6% /
59.3% |
25.0% /
18.5% |
4.07 /
5.52 |
75 /
60 |
55.9% /
47.7% |
56.0% /
45.0% |
20.3% /
37.8% |
5.71 /
4.80 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
45.0% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
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