Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *ARIZONA (+3 -120) over Atlanta

Lean – Under (48)

• I disagree with the betting market downgrading the Cardinals by 2.5 points in the last two weeks. Arizona’s defense is not on par with Cincinnati’s, where you’d have to put them to get to this side and total.
• Falcons TE Kyle Pitts is averaging 1.74 yards per route run (2nd) after last week’s 166-yard explosion and the Cardinals are missing starting safety Jalen Thompson, but Arizona is getting back backup S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, who is conceding just 5.4 yards per target while Thompson is allowing 7.2 yards per target.
• Pitts won’t be as large a factor for Kirk Cousins this week with Atlanta’s offense likely getting back WR Drake London, but his suiting up is offset by Arizona’s offense likely getting back WR Marvin Harrison. London is averaging 0.24 EPA/target (23rd) compared to Harrison, averaging 0.46 EPA/target (9th).
• Jacoby Brissett has a favorable matchup as the Cardinals are averaging 22% more yppp versus cover 1 compared to other coverages (4th), and the Falcons have a 32% cover 1 rate (2nd-highest).
• Atlanta’s defense has a 45% blitz rate (2nd-highest), and they will struggle as Arizona offensive coordinator Drew Petzing’s offense is averaging a league-high 21% more yards per attempt versus the blitz compared to a standard pass rush.
• Our model favors the Falcons by just 0.5 points, with a predicted total of 45.1 points, and the Falcons apply to a negative 26-80-1 ATS letdown situation based on their upset win over division rival Tampa Bay last Thursday.

Arizona is a 1-Star Best Bet at +2.5 or more.