Game Analysis
TAMPA BAY (-4.5) vs Arizona
Kyler Murray has an excellent matchup versus a Buccaneers pass defense ranked 28th and possibly without cornerback Carlton Davis, who is best on the team surrendering only 0.89 yards per cover snap but is dealing with a hip injury and didn’t practice on Thursday. Furthermore, Murray should have time in the pocket to operate with Tampa Bay’s top pass rushing threats neutralized by Arizona’s best offensive linemen. Shaquil Barrett has a 25% pass rush win rate, ranking 10th among edge defenders, but he will line up across from left tackle DJ Humpries, who ranks 12th in pass blocking efficiency. Vita Vea ranks 6th among interior defenders with an 18% pass rush win rate but he will face left guard Justin Pugh, who ranks 6th in pass blocking efficiency. The Cardinals rank 8th in rushing efficiency despite most of the carries coming from David Johnson, who is only averaging 0.06 avoided tackles per rush and expected to be back this week. Kenyan Drake gained 162 yards from scrimmage in his first start for the team last week and forced 4 missed tackles. The Buccaneers rush defense ranks 8th so we may see Drake slow down this week, especially if Johnson eats into his workload.
Mike Evans is up to 2.57 yards per route run (5th) after 378 receiving yards in the last 2 games, but he will be limited by Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Peterson in this matchup. Jameis Winston will focus on second receiver Chris Godwin, who is averaging 2.08 yards per route run in the slot (4th).
Kyler Murray is set up for a strong performance helped by protection from his offensive line and an improved ground game. Overall, I think the matchups favor Arizona but the model favors Tampa Bay by 6.2 points, with a predicted total of 52.2 points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.6
38.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.0%
54.5%
-
Sack Rate
8.4%
6.7%
-
Int Rate
1.1%
0.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.8%
16.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.7%
42.1%
-
NYPP
6.0
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.2
28.1
-
RB YPR
4.2
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
22.4%
23.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.2%
48.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.5%
44.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
62.8
66.8
-
Early Down Succ
47.1%
54.1%
-
Succ Rate
44.9%
51.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
47.3%
43.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.0%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.4
30.3
-
Run Ratio
38.4%
42.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.8
27.7
-
Game Control
-3.1
3.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.1
43.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.8%
47.9%
-
Sack Rate
9.2%
5.6%
-
Int Rate
3.4%
1.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.8%
19.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.3%
44.8%
-
NYPP
6.6
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.4
23.0
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
20.2%
35.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.3%
33.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
32.5%
49.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
68.5
66.1
-
Early Down Succ
46.3%
44.5%
-
Succ Rate
44.3%
42.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.7%
46.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.8
26.6
-
Run Ratio
39.0%
35.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.4
30.3
-
Game Control
-0.4
0.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
DET |
27 – 27 T |
-9.4 |
35.6% /
47.9% |
8.5% /
6.3% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
7.5 |
56.5% /
53.1% |
13.0% /
25.0% |
4.9 /
3.6 |
82 /
80 |
41.7% /
57.6% |
41.5% /
50.0% |
39.5% /
45.5% |
4.7 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
2.5% |
28.0% /
40.0% |
28.4 /
26.5 |
| 2 |
@BAL |
17 – 23 L |
-6.7 |
44.2% /
46.2% |
7.0% /
5.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
6.6 |
36.4% /
45.5% |
36.4% /
15.2% |
1.8 /
5.5 |
54 /
72 |
48.8% /
47.3% |
42.6% /
45.8% |
65.9% /
62.3% |
6.5 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
20.4% /
45.8% |
20.0 /
28.7 |
| 3 |
CAR |
20 – 38 L |
-4.1 |
35.3% /
60.7% |
15.7% /
7.1% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
2.5 /
8.6 |
68.2% /
38.7% |
18.2% /
16.1% |
5.5 /
5.6 |
73 /
59 |
41.8% /
53.2% |
45.2% /
49.2% |
35.1% /
46.7% |
3.4 /
7.0 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
30.1% /
52.5% |
22.5 /
36.2 |
| 4 |
SEA |
10 – 27 L |
-11.8 |
44.4% /
56.3% |
11.1% /
12.5% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
7.0 |
56.5% /
63.0% |
13.0% /
25.9% |
5.0 /
4.3 |
59 /
59 |
53.1% /
63.3% |
49.2% /
59.3% |
37.1% /
27.4% |
5.4 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.0% /
45.8% |
21.9 /
27.6 |
| 5 |
@CIN |
26 – 23 W |
4.5 |
45.5% /
53.8% |
3.0% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
6.7 |
57.9% /
65.2% |
13.2% /
30.4% |
7.0 /
4.7 |
71 /
62 |
53.6% /
63.3% |
52.1% /
58.1% |
53.5% /
31.6% |
7.2 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.5% /
37.1% |
27.6 /
25.0 |
| 6 |
ATL |
34 – 33 W |
4.9 |
62.2% /
68.4% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
9.0 |
34.5% /
52.0% |
24.1% /
20.0% |
3.5 /
4.1 |
66 /
63 |
51.0% /
63.5% |
50.0% /
61.9% |
55.4% /
37.6% |
6.7 /
7.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
39.7% |
27.3 /
22.4 |
| 7 |
@NYG |
27 – 21 W |
6.5 |
43.5% /
41.9% |
8.7% /
18.6% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
3.9 /
3.6 |
26.3% /
45.5% |
21.1% /
22.7% |
4.1 /
4.9 |
61 /
65 |
28.6% /
46.0% |
32.8% /
43.1% |
43.7% /
41.8% |
4.0 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
62.3% /
33.8% |
40.1 /
24.5 |
| 8 |
@NO |
9 – 31 L |
-6.3 |
36.8% /
60.5% |
10.5% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
5.2 /
8.7 |
36.4% /
44.8% |
45.5% /
17.2% |
3.6 /
4.7 |
49 /
72 |
45.7% /
54.2% |
36.7% /
54.2% |
37.1% /
45.7% |
4.8 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
22.4% /
40.3% |
26.1 /
31.2 |
| 9 |
SF |
25 – 28 L |
-5.3 |
48.1% /
55.3% |
11.1% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
8.2 |
60.9% /
32.3% |
17.4% /
35.5% |
6.7 /
3.3 |
50 /
69 |
59.5% /
38.8% |
54.0% /
44.9% |
58.3% /
50.9% |
7.1 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.0% /
44.9% |
18.3 /
27.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SF |
17 – 31 L |
-4.2 |
33.3% /
42.9% |
7.7% /
3.6% |
8.3% /
3.7% |
4.5 /
5.6 |
53.8% /
34.4% |
23.1% /
34.4% |
4.7 /
3.1 |
65 /
60 |
43.1% /
40.0% |
41.5% /
38.3% |
27.1% /
48.0% |
4.5 /
4.3 |
1.5% /
1.7% |
40.0% /
53.3% |
28.6 /
29.4 |
| 2 |
@CAR |
20 – 14 W |
1.4 |
39.3% /
40.7% |
10.7% /
5.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
5.8 |
35.5% /
26.3% |
25.8% /
57.9% |
3.2 /
2.1 |
59 /
73 |
43.5% /
42.9% |
37.3% /
37.0% |
63.0% /
43.2% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
52.5% /
26.0% |
26.5 /
27.6 |
| 3 |
NYG |
31 – 32 L |
5.4 |
46.3% /
39.0% |
9.8% /
12.2% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
7.6 |
53.1% /
31.6% |
18.8% /
26.3% |
4.5 /
3.8 |
73 /
60 |
54.4% /
32.6% |
49.3% /
36.7% |
56.5% /
60.9% |
6.8 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
3.3% |
43.8% /
31.7% |
30.8 /
26.3 |
| 4 |
@LA |
55 – 40 W |
10.8 |
55.8% /
52.9% |
4.7% /
2.9% |
2.4% /
4.4% |
8.7 /
7.0 |
40.0% /
36.4% |
33.3% /
36.4% |
2.9 /
2.5 |
73 /
81 |
47.5% /
53.6% |
49.3% /
50.6% |
28.2% /
33.8% |
6.4 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
41.1% /
13.6% |
33.4 /
25.3 |
| 5 |
@NO |
24 – 31 L |
-6.3 |
39.4% /
55.6% |
18.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
4.8 /
9.6 |
50.0% /
29.0% |
13.6% /
19.4% |
4.3 /
3.6 |
55 /
67 |
46.5% /
40.8% |
43.6% /
43.3% |
43.7% /
42.5% |
4.6 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
46.3% |
30.4 /
27.0 |
| 6 |
CAR |
26 – 37 L |
-11.3 |
42.6% /
44.1% |
11.5% /
5.9% |
9.3% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
6.1 |
42.9% /
27.6% |
7.1% /
37.9% |
3.0 /
2.0 |
75 /
63 |
44.8% /
41.3% |
42.7% /
36.5% |
38.3% /
45.5% |
5.4 /
4.3 |
2.7% /
1.6% |
18.7% /
46.0% |
26.6 /
40.6 |
| 8 |
@TEN |
23 – 27 L |
-2.0 |
45.7% /
47.2% |
6.5% /
8.3% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
4.8 |
33.3% /
23.8% |
16.7% /
57.1% |
3.5 /
3.4 |
76 /
57 |
39.7% /
41.5% |
40.8% /
38.6% |
35.5% /
55.3% |
5.1 /
4.3 |
2.6% /
1.8% |
39.5% /
36.8% |
27.5 /
35.4 |
| 9 |
@SEA |
34 – 40 L |
3.4 |
47.8% /
60.9% |
4.3% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
7.5 |
53.8% /
54.5% |
23.1% /
18.2% |
3.8 /
6.6 |
72 /
68 |
50.9% /
63.3% |
50.0% /
58.8% |
25.4% /
45.5% |
5.8 /
7.2 |
1.4% /
1.5% |
36.1% /
32.4% |
31.3 /
31.0 |
Arizona Cardinals
@ 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers