Game Analysis

Lean – Arizona (+7 -115) over SEATTLE

• Jacoby Brissett is averaging 1.3 more yards per pass play than Kyler Murray this season. Brissett is clearly not a major downgrade from Murray, and I have Arizona’s offense ranked 23rd.
• Cardinals TE Trey McBride is averaging 1.58 yards per route run (9th), and he has a favorable matchup as the Seahawks are surrendering 0.57 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (30th).
• Seattle CB Josh Jobe suffered an injury at the start of the second quarter last week and did not return. Jobe is allowing 5.5 yards per target compared to backup CB Tariq Woolen, who is allowing 7.3 yards per target.
• Sam Darnold was pressured on just 3 of his 24 dropbacks versus the Commanders for a career-low pressure rate of 12.5%, but I expect him to be less comfortable on Sunday.
• Arizona interior defender Calais Campbell ranks 6th in pass rushing efficiency, and he will wreak havoc on Seattle’s interior offensive line, who are at fault for 52% of the allowed pressures (25th).
• Seahawks’ WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is averaging a league-high 6.35 yards per route run on play action passes, but he will be contained as the Cardinals defense is 7th relatively versus play action compared to standard dropbacks.
• Seattle traded for deep threat WR Rashid Shaheed, but Arizona’s defense has the 4th-highest cover 4 rate and they will put a cap on Darnold, who leads the NFL with 9.6 air yards per attempt.
• Cardinals’ cornerbacks Melton and Johnson have been ruled out
• A four-deep structure tightens vertical windows, reducing the effectiveness of play-action and seam attacks. The Seahawks’ yards per pass play against cover 4 is only 79% of the yppp versus other coverages (31st), and Darnold was held to 1.1 yppp below his season average in the first game against the Cardinals.
• Our model makes Seattle a 7.8-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.3, but the Seahawks apply to a negative 32-81-4 ATS home favorite letdown situation based on their recent good play. I’ll lean with Arizona at +7.