Game Analysis
Lean – Arizona (+9.5) over SEATTLE
Lean – Under (38.5)
Russell Wilson historically performs worse in divisional games because opposing defenses are more familiar with his unique mobile style. Wilson gains 4.7 yards per rush versus NFC West opponents compared to 6.2 yards per rush against non-divisional foes throughout his career. The limit on scrambles has a direct effect on Seattle’s offense as they’ve averaged just 4.2 yards per play in 5 divisional games this season and 5.9 yards per play in all other games. James Bettcher took over as Arizona’s defensive coordinator in 2015 and after gaining familiarity the Cardinals have held Wilson to just 3.4 yards per rush in the last two seasons.
The Seahawks need a win and an Atlanta loss to make the playoffs and their perceived added motivation has pushed this line up from last week’s look ahead number of -7 points, which is also what our model projects. Arizona’s rush offense ranks last in my metrics, and they are without their top 3 offensive linemen, and while I do not expect the Cardinals to find success with a one-dimensional passing offense in Seattle the line is a bit inflated. I’ll lean with Arizona plus the points and I’ll also lean under 38 points or higher, as our model projects just 35 ½ total points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.9
37.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.1%
44.5%
-
Sack Rate
8.2%
5.7%
-
Int Rate
3.2%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.5%
16.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.6%
36.1%
-
NYPP
5.9
6.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.0
26.1
-
RB YPR
3.1
3.0
-
Stuff Rate
25.8%
26.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
35.7%
37.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
25.4%
36.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.1
3.3
Game
-
All Snaps
66.9
63.9
-
Early Down Succ
42.1%
43.9%
-
Succ Rate
39.7%
41.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.4%
37.3%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.9
28.1
-
Run Ratio
38.5%
41.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
28.4
-
Game Control
-1.4
1.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.5
37.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.2%
41.8%
-
Sack Rate
7.5%
6.8%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
24.5%
21.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
48.5%
34.6%
-
NYPP
6.1
5.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.9
28.6
-
RB YPR
3.0
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
29.6%
23.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.8%
44.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.6%
36.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
64.4
65.6
-
Early Down Succ
43.7%
44.6%
-
Succ Rate
41.5%
42.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
49.4%
39.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
28.0
-
Run Ratio
41.7%
43.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.9
28.6
-
Game Control
-1.3
1.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DET |
23 – 35 L |
2.7 |
42.9% /
47.6% |
2.0% /
2.4% |
6.3% /
2.4% |
5.4 /
6.8 |
38.9% /
35.7% |
16.7% /
21.4% |
2.5 /
3.0 |
67 /
70 |
41.2% /
42.3% |
41.8% /
42.9% |
29.4% /
27.4% |
4.6 /
5.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
26.9% /
40.0% |
28.5 /
36.6 |
| 2 |
@IND |
16 – 13 W |
-6.3 |
40.0% /
41.5% |
10.0% /
9.8% |
2.8% /
2.7% |
7.7 /
4.6 |
34.6% /
34.5% |
11.5% /
24.1% |
3.2 /
2.6 |
66 /
70 |
39.6% /
36.5% |
37.9% /
38.6% |
63.6% /
16.5% |
5.9 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.4% /
41.4% |
29.6 /
24.5 |
| 3 |
DAL |
17 – 28 L |
0.5 |
38.9% /
42.1% |
11.1% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
9.2 |
33.3% /
33.3% |
33.3% /
33.3% |
2.3 /
3.7 |
75 /
46 |
35.7% /
42.9% |
37.3% /
37.0% |
51.5% /
62.8% |
4.4 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.0% /
58.7% |
21.6 /
29.4 |
| 4 |
SF |
18 – 15 W |
-1.4 |
49.1% /
30.8% |
10.5% /
5.8% |
2.0% /
2.0% |
5.6 /
4.0 |
39.1% /
37.0% |
30.4% /
25.9% |
2.3 /
3.5 |
80 /
79 |
51.6% /
33.9% |
46.3% /
32.9% |
17.9% /
27.9% |
4.6 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
34.2% |
27.9 /
22.3 |
| 5 |
@PHI |
7 – 34 L |
-16.7 |
41.3% /
48.4% |
4.3% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
6.0 /
9.6 |
21.4% /
28.6% |
35.7% /
22.9% |
2.2 /
3.5 |
60 /
66 |
37.2% /
33.3% |
36.7% /
37.9% |
20.2% /
52.3% |
5.1 /
6.4 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
23.3% /
53.0% |
19.3 /
34.1 |
| 6 |
TB |
38 – 33 W |
18.1 |
62.5% /
53.5% |
8.3% /
2.3% |
4.5% /
4.8% |
11.3 /
8.0 |
38.5% /
23.8% |
20.5% /
38.1% |
4.2 /
3.2 |
63 /
64 |
56.5% /
40.4% |
47.6% /
43.8% |
53.0% /
51.9% |
6.9 /
6.5 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
61.9% /
32.8% |
33.4 /
28.3 |
| 7 |
@LA |
0 – 33 L |
-16.0 |
28.6% /
42.1% |
8.6% /
2.6% |
6.3% /
2.7% |
4.8 /
6.0 |
25.0% /
48.8% |
41.7% /
14.6% |
2.1 /
4.8 |
47 /
79 |
27.3% /
39.7% |
27.7% /
45.6% |
35.8% /
29.1% |
4.1 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.5% /
51.9% |
26.0 /
33.8 |
| 9 |
@SF |
20 – 10 W |
7.3 |
40.0% /
32.1% |
0.0% /
8.9% |
3.3% /
2.0% |
6.7 /
4.8 |
34.8% /
58.8% |
13.0% /
17.6% |
3.7 /
3.7 |
76 /
73 |
38.9% /
40.7% |
36.8% /
38.4% |
45.8% /
30.7% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
1.3% /
1.4% |
60.5% /
23.3% |
34.4 /
23.5 |
| 10 |
SEA |
16 – 22 L |
-5.5 |
42.9% /
47.2% |
4.1% /
13.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
5.9 |
20.8% /
20.8% |
41.7% /
33.3% |
1.4 /
3.2 |
73 /
60 |
34.5% /
42.2% |
35.6% /
36.7% |
6.9% /
51.0% |
4.0 /
4.8 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
32.9% /
40.0% |
27.7 /
27.1 |
| 11 |
@HOU |
21 – 31 L |
-1.8 |
50.0% /
54.5% |
5.6% /
3.0% |
5.9% /
3.1% |
6.8 /
6.8 |
33.3% /
47.1% |
38.9% /
20.6% |
2.7 /
3.9 |
54 /
67 |
48.8% /
50.0% |
44.4% /
50.7% |
42.5% /
49.6% |
5.4 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
33.3% /
50.7% |
36.3 /
22.7 |
| 12 |
JAC |
27 – 24 W |
5.2 |
43.6% /
40.0% |
2.6% /
8.6% |
2.6% /
3.1% |
6.1 /
3.7 |
40.6% /
36.4% |
21.9% /
31.8% |
3.4 /
4.1 |
71 /
57 |
44.2% /
45.5% |
42.3% /
38.6% |
33.9% /
31.5% |
4.9 /
3.8 |
1.4% /
3.5% |
45.1% /
38.6% |
30.9 /
25.5 |
| 13 |
LA |
16 – 32 L |
-9.9 |
39.5% /
50.0% |
15.8% /
3.1% |
6.3% /
3.2% |
5.1 /
6.7 |
50.0% /
50.0% |
8.3% /
25.0% |
4.9 /
3.8 |
62 /
56 |
42.6% /
54.5% |
43.5% /
50.0% |
39.1% /
41.6% |
5.0 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
42.9% |
27.7 /
34.9 |
| 14 |
TEN |
12 – 7 W |
-1.6 |
44.1% /
35.3% |
23.5% /
8.8% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
3.7 /
4.1 |
38.7% /
50.0% |
22.6% /
36.4% |
4.5 /
3.0 |
65 /
56 |
51.1% /
45.2% |
41.5% /
41.1% |
47.9% /
25.0% |
4.0 /
3.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.7% /
39.3% |
35.6 /
24.5 |
| 15 |
@WAS |
15 – 20 L |
-5.6 |
24.4% /
51.9% |
11.1% /
3.7% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
6.9 |
61.8% /
33.3% |
14.7% /
28.6% |
4.1 /
1.5 |
79 /
48 |
45.6% /
54.1% |
40.5% /
43.8% |
44.8% /
37.9% |
3.6 /
4.6 |
1.3% /
2.1% |
43.0% /
43.8% |
33.0 /
31.8 |
| 16 |
NYG |
23 – 0 W |
10.7 |
43.2% /
51.1% |
5.4% /
4.3% |
5.7% /
4.4% |
5.8 /
5.3 |
25.0% /
30.0% |
35.7% /
25.0% |
2.7 /
2.2 |
65 /
67 |
36.7% /
57.1% |
35.4% /
44.8% |
29.3% /
23.5% |
4.5 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
43.1% /
29.9% |
27.0 /
27.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@GB |
9 – 17 L |
-2.5 |
40.0% /
50.0% |
10.0% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
4.5 /
6.2 |
38.9% /
35.5% |
50.0% /
19.4% |
5.0 /
2.8 |
48 /
77 |
44.4% /
44.6% |
39.6% /
44.2% |
58.7% /
37.8% |
4.7 /
4.8 |
2.1% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
40.3% |
27.5 /
25.9 |
| 2 |
SF |
12 – 9 W |
2.0 |
33.3% /
20.7% |
7.1% /
6.9% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
4.3 /
3.1 |
37.2% /
52.6% |
20.9% /
21.1% |
3.1 /
8.4 |
85 /
48 |
37.5% /
38.9% |
35.3% /
33.3% |
23.7% /
49.2% |
3.7 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.6% /
39.6% |
23.9 /
24.5 |
| 3 |
@TEN |
27 – 33 L |
-4.9 |
50.0% /
51.6% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
40.9% /
44.4% |
31.8% /
22.2% |
3.1 /
5.4 |
72 /
67 |
51.8% /
54.9% |
47.2% /
47.8% |
38.8% /
44.9% |
6.0 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.6% /
53.7% |
23.3 /
29.6 |
| 4 |
IND |
46 – 18 W |
7.0 |
65.5% /
37.5% |
10.3% /
9.4% |
7.7% /
3.4% |
9.8 /
4.3 |
42.4% /
52.0% |
24.2% /
8.0% |
5.9 /
3.9 |
62 /
57 |
47.8% /
44.2% |
53.2% /
43.9% |
67.7% /
30.0% |
7.7 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
53.2% /
43.9% |
20.2 /
28.3 |
| 5 |
@LA |
16 – 10 W |
-0.8 |
45.0% /
35.4% |
7.5% /
4.2% |
5.4% /
4.3% |
4.5 /
5.7 |
19.2% /
40.9% |
23.1% /
45.5% |
2.4 /
4.5 |
66 /
70 |
31.3% /
33.3% |
34.8% /
37.1% |
8.7% /
44.3% |
3.7 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
4.3% |
39.4% /
31.4% |
35.2 /
29.2 |
| 7 |
@NYG |
24 – 7 W |
1.0 |
50.0% /
22.5% |
2.5% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
3.3 |
50.0% /
41.2% |
21.9% /
17.6% |
3.3 /
2.7 |
72 /
57 |
53.6% /
31.8% |
50.0% /
28.1% |
43.9% /
14.1% |
5.9 /
3.1 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
44.4% /
29.8% |
33.8 /
22.8 |
| 8 |
HOU |
41 – 38 W |
-1.4 |
51.2% /
45.7% |
4.7% /
14.3% |
2.4% /
10.0% |
10.4 /
10.5 |
17.4% /
50.0% |
39.1% /
17.6% |
1.5 /
4.2 |
66 /
69 |
44.0% /
51.7% |
39.4% /
47.8% |
62.4% /
72.7% |
7.3 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
49.3% |
27.4 /
22.4 |
| 9 |
WAS |
14 – 17 L |
-2.3 |
43.5% /
40.5% |
4.3% /
16.2% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
5.2 |
57.1% /
39.1% |
14.3% /
34.8% |
5.3 /
2.2 |
74 /
60 |
51.7% /
42.6% |
48.6% /
40.0% |
48.5% /
51.6% |
5.9 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
37.8% /
38.3% |
30.7 /
27.8 |
| 10 |
@ARI |
22 – 16 W |
5.5 |
47.2% /
42.9% |
13.9% /
4.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
5.2 |
20.8% /
20.8% |
33.3% /
41.7% |
3.2 /
1.4 |
60 /
73 |
42.2% /
34.5% |
36.7% /
35.6% |
51.0% /
6.9% |
4.8 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
40.0% /
32.9% |
27.1 /
27.7 |
| 11 |
ATL |
31 – 34 L |
-8.5 |
48.9% /
53.6% |
6.7% /
3.6% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
6.8 |
65.2% /
34.4% |
21.7% /
21.9% |
5.9 /
2.8 |
68 /
60 |
57.4% /
40.5% |
54.4% /
43.3% |
46.7% /
37.7% |
5.3 /
4.7 |
1.5% /
1.7% |
33.8% /
53.3% |
36.4 /
33.0 |
| 12 |
@SF |
24 – 13 W |
7.2 |
44.1% /
38.1% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
2.9% /
2.6% |
6.7 /
4.7 |
38.7% /
45.8% |
25.8% /
33.3% |
2.9 /
3.5 |
65 /
66 |
44.0% /
42.9% |
41.5% /
40.9% |
48.6% /
43.6% |
4.9 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.7% /
36.4% |
32.2 /
25.4 |
| 13 |
PHI |
24 – 10 W |
8.3 |
48.5% /
45.8% |
6.1% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
6.3 /
6.8 |
19.2% /
53.8% |
26.9% /
23.1% |
3.9 /
3.8 |
59 /
74 |
35.6% /
48.1% |
35.6% /
48.6% |
39.5% /
51.8% |
5.3 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
44.1% /
35.1% |
20.4 /
25.4 |
| 14 |
@JAC |
24 – 30 L |
-6.2 |
36.4% /
51.9% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
9.7% /
0.0% |
7.9 /
9.9 |
45.8% /
34.9% |
45.8% /
16.3% |
5.9 /
3.7 |
57 /
70 |
44.7% /
51.0% |
40.4% /
41.4% |
77.8% /
47.4% |
7.0 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
42.1% /
61.4% |
30.0 /
30.6 |
| 15 |
LA |
7 – 42 L |
-24.8 |
21.6% /
48.0% |
18.9% /
8.0% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
1.9 /
4.3 |
58.8% /
46.5% |
29.4% /
18.6% |
4.6 /
5.7 |
54 /
68 |
32.5% /
51.0% |
33.3% /
47.1% |
81.9% /
44.0% |
2.8 /
5.2 |
3.7% /
0.0% |
31.5% /
63.2% |
23.5 /
47.2 |
| 16 |
@DAL |
21 – 12 W |
1.5 |
37.5% /
42.1% |
12.5% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
2.5 /
4.1 |
29.4% /
76.7% |
35.3% /
3.3% |
2.3 /
4.3 |
58 /
68 |
37.5% /
59.3% |
32.8% /
57.4% |
42.4% /
16.3% |
2.4 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
58.6% /
44.1% |
27.0 /
29.1 |
Arizona Cardinals
@ 
Seattle Seahawks