Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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A pair of NFC West teams with vastly different expectations coming into the season square off on Thursday Night.

The Cardinals were a Super Bowl favorite headed into the year, however, they are now 1-3 and down their starting QB. The defense has been solid all year, allowing an opponent 38% offensive success rate and 4.8 YPP. Despite these gaudy defensive numbers, opposing teams have been able to still average 20 points per Game (ppg) due to high variance big plays (48% chunk yardage given up). If the defense continues to play at this level, Arizona would be expected to give up 18 ppg going forward. Offensively while they have not had the success with the deep ball as previous years, they still are averaging a respectable 6.5 NYPP and 4.3 YPR, but Stanton in place of Palmer will be a dropoff.

The Niners have faced a difficult schedule, facing three 3-1 teams and the defending NFC Super Bowl representative. The offense has been bad in all phases, averaging a paltry 40% success rate and 4.7 YPP. It will be a tough test on a short week against a stout Cardinals defense. Defensively the Niners have been average, giving up a 47% success rate, although as with the Cardinals, they are giving up more points than expected, allowing 27 points per game, which is partly due to the average 31.6 Starting field position the opposing offenses have enjoyed.

Looking through the single spectrum of historical Net Yards per Pass (which is by no means comprehensive), Carson Palmer to Drew Stanton is a 3.8 point drop off. The spread has moved accordingly. However, totals wise these are two offensively challenged teams with two defenses that have outperformed the scores allowed and our advanced stats model shows value on the Under, so UNDER (43) is a *1-star Best Bet. No opinion on the side.

Team Stats
Game Log

Cardinals
49ers

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 45.0 37.8
Succ Pass Plays 46.2% 39.9%
Sack Rate 6.4% 7.8%
Int Rate 3.6% 2.9%
Deep Pass Rate 23.6% 22.1%
Big Pass Yards 39.4% 47.8%
NYPP 6.5 5.5

Rush

Rush Plays 23.8 28.3
RB YPR 4.4 3.0
Stuff Rate 23.1% 28.0%
Succ Rush Plays 43.3% 34.0%
Big Rush Yards 45.1% 52.2%
Yards Per Rush 4.3 3.8

Game

All Snaps 68.8 66.0
Early Down Succ 45.4% 38.2%
Succ Rate 44.8% 37.8%
Big Yards Rate 41.2% 53.8%
Yards Per Play 5.6 4.8
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 1.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.4 27.2
Run Ratio 34.8% 43.5%
Starting Field Pos 29.4 28.6
Game Control -0.4 0.4

Points 23.0 20.3

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 30.5 36.3
Succ Pass Plays 39.8% 45.8%
Sack Rate 2.4% 4.9%
Int Rate 3.5% 2.9%
Deep Pass Rate 17.0% 16.1%
Big Pass Yards 36.5% 44.2%
NYPP 5.9 6.9

Rush

Rush Plays 32.5 35.0
RB YPR 3.5 3.8
Stuff Rate 27.2% 19.7%
Succ Rush Plays 40.1% 42.2%
Big Rush Yards 35.5% 36.6%
Yards Per Rush 3.5 3.9

Game

All Snaps 63.0 71.3
Early Down Succ 41.4% 46.9%
Succ Rate 40.2% 43.7%
Big Yards Rate 38.5% 41.9%
Yards Per Play 4.7 5.4
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 24.7 28.8
Run Ratio 51.7% 48.5%
Starting Field Pos 29.3 31.6
Game Control -2.9 2.9

Points 22.5 26.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NE	21 – 23 L	-5.0	50.0% / 51.4%	7.5% / 5.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 7.3	57.9% / 31.3%	15.8% / 34.4%	4.8 / 3.3	59 / 67	53.2% / 36.7%	52.5% / 41.8%	38.1% / 45.9%	5.8 / 5.4	0.0% / 3.0%	32.2% / 47.8%	29.2 / 24.7
2	TB	40 – 7 W	16.6	50.0% / 40.0%	2.8% / 5.5%	0.0% / 7.7%	8.8 / 4.0	34.5% / 40.9%	20.7% / 22.7%	3.5 / 3.9	65 / 77	43.1% / 42.6%	43.1% / 40.3%	55.0% / 19.5%	6.4 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.3%	44.6% / 28.6%	28.8 / 25.7
3	@BUF	18 – 34 L	-12.1	40.0% / 27.6%	9.1% / 13.8%	8.0% / 4.0%	4.7 / 3.0	40.9% / 51.4%	31.8% / 25.7%	4.0 / 6.0	77 / 64	42.6% / 47.8%	40.3% / 40.6%	27.0% / 80.9%	4.5 / 4.7	1.3% / 0.0%	28.6% / 54.7%	32.3 / 33.8
4	LA	13 – 17 L	-1.3	44.9% / 40.6%	6.1% / 6.3%	6.5% / 0.0%	6.2 / 7.7	40.0% / 12.5%	24.0% / 29.2%	4.7 / 1.8	74 / 56	42.6% / 25.6%	43.2% / 28.6%	44.5% / 68.9%	5.7 / 5.2	2.7% / 1.8%	33.8% / 42.9%	27.2 / 30.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	LA	28 – 0 W	12.6	45.7% / 27.0%	0.0% / 5.4%	0.0% / 5.7%	4.9 / 3.2	37.2% / 37.5%	32.6% / 20.8%	3.5 / 2.8	78 / 61	40.4% / 35.7%	41.0% / 31.1%	35.2% / 29.0%	4.1 / 3.0	1.3% / 0.0%	55.1% / 39.3%	24.4 / 31.4
2	@CAR	27 – 46 L	-7.8	39.5% / 47.5%	5.3% / 2.5%	5.6% / 2.6%	6.2 / 8.8	34.6% / 40.5%	26.9% / 24.3%	2.5 / 4.8	64 / 77	41.7% / 43.5%	37.5% / 44.2%	46.7% / 55.6%	4.7 / 6.9	1.6% / 3.9%	40.6% / 48.1%	33.9 / 31.8
3	@SEA	18 – 37 L	-19.7	28.0% / 50.0%	0.0% / 5.9%	4.0% / 3.1%	4.8 / 8.6	38.7% / 36.4%	16.1% / 27.3%	4.4 / 3.9	56 / 67	35.0% / 40.0%	33.9% / 43.3%	25.2% / 49.9%	4.5 / 6.3	0.0% / 1.5%	55.4% / 49.3%	33.6 / 35.1
4	DAL	17 – 24 L	3.0	45.8% / 58.8%	4.2% / 5.9%	4.3% / 0.0%	7.9 / 6.9	50.0% / 54.3%	33.3% / 6.5%	3.6 / 4.3	54 / 80	48.6% / 68.4%	48.1% / 56.3%	47.0% / 33.2%	5.5 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	55.6% / 57.5%	25.4 / 28.0

Arizona Cardinals @

San Francisco 49ers

Thu, Oct 6

5:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis