Game Analysis
Lean – Arizona (+10) over MINNESOTA
Minnesota got a much-needed win over the defending champs to even their record at 2-2-1 and they’re likely to get back above .500 today. However, Arizona has covered the spread in 3 consecutive games after being outscored 6-58 in the first two weeks of the season. This is a game featuring the two of the worst offensive lines in football.
Minnesota RB Dalvin Cook leads all skill position players with 0.4 forced missed tackles per touch, but Minnesota’s rush offense ranks last in the league due to poor offensive line play. Cook has a league-low 7 total yards before first contact this season and certainly would be gaining more than 2.7 yards per rush behind a better blocking. Furthermore, the Vikings offensive line ranks 31st in pass blocking efficiency and the struggle should continue against a Cardinals defense boasting a 7.3% sack rate (9th). Not all is bad for Minnesota’s offense in this game. Adam Thielen is the first player in the NFL history to start the season with 5-straight 100-yard receiving games and he is tied for the league-lead with 65 targets. Thielen is taking 61% of his snaps from the slot this year and has a good chance to continue his streak of 100-yard games while often lining up against Budda Baker, whose 1.67 yards allowed per slot cover snap ranks 4th-worst among qualifying nickelbacks.
Arizona’s offensive line ranks last in pass blocking efficiency and rookie signal-caller Josh Rosen has seen pressure on 48% of his dropbacks, the most in the league, which is certainly not ideal for a developing rookie quarterback. However, Minnesota’s defense is struggling without star edge rusher Everson Griffen, as the Vikings’ D grades out at just 25th in our numbers and is not getting to the quarterback as much as they were last season.
Our ratings favor Minnesota by just 9 points and the Vikings apply to a 59-128-1 ATS letdown situation that is based on last week’s close 23-21 upset win at Philadelphia. I can certainly see the Vikings letting up a bit while Arizona’s confidence grows following their first win of the season. I’ll lean with Arizona based on the situation.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
19.6
28.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
176.9%
165.2%
-
Sack Rate
26.1%
26.3%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.5%
11.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.2%
35.5%
-
NYPP
20.7
22.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
20.6
35.0
-
RB YPR
3.1
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
22.5%
25.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.6%
50.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
22.3%
50.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.3
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
40.2
63.0
-
Early Down Succ
39.7%
52.5%
-
Succ Rate
55.3%
59.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.0%
42.7%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
6.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.9%
1.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
40.5
35.3
-
Run Ratio
56.7%
58.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.4
28.6
-
Game Control
-3.5
3.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
46.6
33.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.6%
53.7%
-
Sack Rate
5.8%
8.7%
-
Int Rate
0.8%
1.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.3%
19.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.6%
56.4%
-
NYPP
7.1
8.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
19.6
25.0
-
RB YPR
3.1
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
26.5%
21.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
36.2%
51.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.5%
28.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.2
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
66.2
58.4
-
Early Down Succ
50.6%
54.3%
-
Succ Rate
49.7%
52.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
32.0%
48.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
6.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.5%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.8
32.7
-
Run Ratio
29.9%
42.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.3
30.1
-
Game Control
-3.5
3.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
WAS |
6 – 24 L |
-13.7 |
700.0% / 600.0% |
100.0% / 100.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
72.5 / 82.3 |
56.3% / 46.5% |
12.5% / 25.6% |
4.3 / 4.3 |
18 / 46 |
53.7% / 50.0% |
127.8% / 82.6% |
35.0% / 47.0% |
11.9 / 9.3 |
5.6% / 2.2% |
88.9% / 93.5% |
29.3 / 18.0 |
2 |
@LA |
0 – 34 L |
-14.9 |
21.4% / 64.7% |
3.6% / 5.9% |
3.7% / 3.1% |
3.0 / 10.1 |
33.3% / 48.5% |
13.3% / 24.2% |
3.6 / 2.7 |
43 / 67 |
23.3% / 59.2% |
25.6% / 56.7% |
0.0% / 51.9% |
3.2 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.9% / 49.3% |
19.0 / 39.1 |
3 |
CHI |
14 – 16 L |
7.2 |
40.0% / 42.1% |
13.3% / 7.9% |
11.5% / 2.9% |
5.6 / 5.1 |
33.3% / 54.8% |
27.8% / 22.6% |
2.9 / 3.9 |
48 / 69 |
40.5% / 50.0% |
37.5% / 47.8% |
58.8% / 37.7% |
4.6 / 4.6 |
2.1% / 1.4% |
37.5% / 44.9% |
32.8 / 27.8 |
4 |
SEA |
17 – 20 L |
-2.0 |
42.9% / 48.1% |
3.6% / 7.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 5.9 |
39.3% / 50.0% |
35.7% / 23.5% |
3.3 / 5.0 |
56 / 61 |
40.9% / 58.0% |
41.1% / 49.2% |
54.0% / 35.6% |
4.7 / 5.4 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 55.7% |
26.4 / 35.5 |
5 |
@SF |
28 – 18 W |
6.1 |
80.0% / 71.1% |
10.0% / 10.5% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
16.4 / 7.9 |
30.8% / 50.0% |
23.1% / 29.4% |
2.3 / 4.3 |
36 / 72 |
40.0% / 45.2% |
44.4% / 61.1% |
47.1% / 41.2% |
6.2 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 4.2% |
72.2% / 47.2% |
39.7 / 22.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
SF |
24 – 16 W |
7.6 |
43.6% / 38.9% |
7.7% / 8.3% |
0.0% / 9.1% |
5.8 / 6.6 |
40.6% / 44.0% |
21.9% / 32.0% |
3.6 / 3.6 |
71 / 61 |
43.4% / 41.7% |
42.3% / 41.0% |
24.5% / 60.9% |
4.8 / 5.4 |
1.4% / 1.6% |
45.1% / 41.0% |
33.3 / 23.1 |
2 |
@GB |
29 – 29 T |
-6.3 |
56.0% / 48.9% |
4.0% / 8.9% |
2.1% / 0.0% |
8.2 / 5.6 |
44.4% / 54.2% |
5.6% / 25.0% |
3.8 / 4.1 |
68 / 69 |
53.7% / 55.4% |
52.9% / 50.7% |
44.4% / 31.3% |
7.1 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
26.5% / 34.8% |
26.5 / 29.9 |
3 |
BUF |
6 – 27 L |
-22.0 |
47.5% / 40.0% |
6.8% / 12.0% |
1.8% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 6.6 |
16.7% / 42.1% |
50.0% / 23.7% |
2.3 / 3.4 |
65 / 63 |
48.0% / 42.9% |
44.6% / 41.3% |
3.8% / 42.1% |
4.5 / 4.6 |
3.1% / 0.0% |
9.2% / 60.3% |
17.7 / 40.2 |
4 |
@LA |
31 – 38 L |
-3.9 |
51.9% / 60.0% |
7.4% / 2.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 13.0 |
35.3% / 57.1% |
35.3% / 14.3% |
3.2 / 4.8 |
71 / 56 |
45.3% / 68.1% |
47.9% / 58.9% |
38.8% / 55.7% |
6.3 / 9.9 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
23.9% / 37.5% |
27.2 / 26.6 |
5 |
@PHI |
23 – 21 W |
7.0 |
74.2% / 80.8% |
3.2% / 11.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.6 / 10.9 |
44.0% / 58.8% |
20.0% / 11.8% |
3.2 / 4.8 |
56 / 43 |
62.5% / 63.6% |
60.7% / 72.1% |
48.8% / 51.9% |
6.7 / 8.5 |
1.8% / 4.7% |
44.6% / 39.5% |
27.0 / 30.9 |