Game Analysis

Lean – LA RAMS (-7) over Arizona

· The Cardinals are allowing a 48.5% rush success rate (30th) and the Rams will be able to move the ball on the ground when openings present themselves as Los Angeles ranks 8th in EPA/rush.

· The reason the Rams are better running the football than the last couple of years is Sean McVay is no longer stubbornly running the ball in tough situations. Matthew Stafford is letting it rip under McVay this season with the 5th-highest pass rate adjusted for the situation. Los Angeles only has a 10% run rate on second down following a first down incompletion (4th-lowest). McVay’s play calling is 2.2 points above average by our metrics (5th).

· Stafford had an average time to throw of 2.26 seconds last week (2nd-quickest) while throwing past the sticks on 49% of passes against the Eagles. Arizona’s defense ranks 31st in explosive pass rate allowed as they’ve been without four-time Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker.

· Cardinals nickelback Jalen Thompson was allowing 0.89 yards per cover snap in the slot (7th) but he is likely out for this game as well leaving a favorable matchup on the inside for WR Cooper Kupp, who led the team with 8 receptions and 118 receiving yards in his first game last week.

· The Rams’ offensive line has allowed 75 pressures (29th), but Stafford is averaging 8.3 yppp when kept clean (7th) and Arizona’s defense has a league-low 25.4% pressure rate.

· The interior of the Cardinals’ offensive line is responsible for 66% of total pressures (2nd-most) and the main culprit is LG Elijah Wilkinson, who ranks 4th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency out of 53 qualifying guards. Arizona was toying with benching Wilkinson for backup Trystan Colon but neither will keep up in this matchup versus Aaron Donald, whose 23 pressures lead all interior defenders.

· Arizona wide receiver Marquise Brown is averaging 1.83 yards per route run (20th) and he has a 29% target rate over the last month (3rd-highest) but he will be limited by cornerback Derion Kendrick, who is conceding a league-low 0.59 yards per cover snap.

· The Cardinals are targeting tight ends on 31% of passes (2nd-most) and we should see more Zach Ertz as the Rams are allowing a 65% success rate to tight ends (27th).

· Joshua Dobbs has a 4.0% PFF turnover-worthy play rate (4th-highest) but only a 1.3% interception rate (10th). We should see Los Angeles get some takeaways on Sunday.

· Our model favors the Rams by 10.1 points with a predicted total of 45.4 points.