Arizona Cardinals @

Los Angeles Rams

Mon, Jan 17
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation:
Odds: Los Angeles Rams -3.5, Total: 49

Game Analysis

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Lean – LA Rams (-3.5) over ARIZONA

Strong Opinion – Matt Stafford Over (23.5 -120) Completions to -125

Alternate play is Strong Opinion is Rams (-3.5) (if you don’t have props)

Kyler Murray is averaging 5.4 yards per pass play over the last four games without WR DeAndre Hopkins, compared to 7.5 yppp in the games with his star receiver. Two of those four games were without Rodney Hudson, who leads all centers in pass blocking efficiency. However, Hudson’s absence certainly does not fully explain Arizona’s passing offense dropping from 8.2 air yards per attempt with Hopkins on the field to 6.4 without Hopkins. The Cardinals top option behind Hopkins is WR Christian Kirk, who is averaging 1.80 yards per route run from the slot (5th). Rams Pro Bowl CB Jalen Ramsey missed the last game against the Cardinals, and he lined up at nickelback when these teams met in week 4. Ramsey is conceding just 0.88 yards per cover snap in the slot and should shut down Kirk on the inside.

Aaron Donald leads all interior defenders with 86 pressures and had 3 sacks on Murray in week 14, but I do not expect a repeat as Arizona’s interior line is conceding only 0.5 sacks per game. The Rams should be unstoppable up front but can’t quite seem to get their talented defensive line firing on all cylinders. Edge defender Leonard Floyd ranked 15th in pass rushing efficiency through the first 9 games but ranked only 43rd after week 10 when Von Miller arrived in Los Angeles. Furthermore, Miller’s 16% pressure rate in Denver dropped to a 13% pressure rate with the Rams.

The Rams won’t have either of their starting safeties for this game. Taylor Rapp is out with a concussion and Jordan Fuller suffered an ankle injury last week. Nick Scott, Terrell Burgess, and recently signed veteran Eric Weddle (hasn’t played the last two seasons) will get the snaps at safety. The Los Angeles defense should be around 0.8 points worse without Rapp and Fuller.

Matthew Stafford averaged 7.4 yppp this season (3rd) and WR Cooper Kupp led the NFL with 3.12 yards per route run. The midseason addition of WR Odell Beckham was key for Los Angeles after WR Robert Woods’ season ended in November with a torn ACL. According to TruMedia, Beckham has a 34% target share since week 12 on third down when defenses can devote extra attention to Kupp.

Arizona edge rusher Chandler Jones had 5 sacks in week 1 but ranks only 52nd in pass rushing efficiency since then out of 61 qualifying edge defenders. Rams LT Andrew Whitworth has conceded only 16 pressures this season (4th) and will shut down Jones. Cardinals’ interior defender JJ Watt had 28 pressures through the first 7 weeks (3rd) and could be back in some capacity on Monday for the first game since having surgery on a torn pectoral muscle. Arizona’s 29th-rated rush defense will not put up much of a fight versus a Los Angeles ground game ranked 10th.

Stafford had at least 24 completions in eight games this season and averaged 26.0 against defenses with top 10 blitz rates (Buccaneers, Cardinals x2, Lions, Jaguars, Ravens). Arizona defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is calling a blitz on 33.6% of opponents dropbacks (4th). Stafford will have to get the ball out quickly and Sean McVay will have plenty of blitz-beating outlets for his QB on Monday night.

Matt Stafford Over 23.5 Completions is a Strong Opinion up to -125 odds (Over 24 up to -115). If you don’t have props, then you can play the Rams (-3.5) as a Strong Opinion instead. I just prefer the prop play.

Our model favors the Rams by 5.7 points, with a predicted total of 50.6 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Cardinals
  • Rams
AZ
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.00 35.47
  • Succ Pass Plays 50.5% 47.3%
  • Sack Rate 5.9% 7.0%
  • Int Rate 1.7% 2.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.1% 15.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 41.0% 33.9%
  • NYPP 6.83 6.04



Rush


  • Rush Plays 29.63 25.06
  • RB YPR 4.03 4.54
  • Stuff Rate 25.5% 27.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.3% 48.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 41.9% 50.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.18 4.58




Game

  • All Snaps 65.63 60.53
  • Early Down Succ 53.6% 52.1%
  • Succ Rate 50.9% 47.8%
  • Big Yards Rate 41.3% 39.4%
  • Yards Per Play 5.63 5.43
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 1.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.49 28.52
  • Run Ratio 45.1% 41.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.48 29.62
  • Game Control 2.85 -2.85
 
  • Points 26.41 21.53
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