Game Analysis
Lean – Arizona (+16.5) over KANSAS CITY
Byron Leftwich got Larry Fitzgerald more involved in Arizona’s vertical passing game in his first week at offensive coordinator. Fitzgerald received just 7% of his targets 20+ yards downfield in the first 7 weeks of the season before getting 4 deep targets for 70 yards and a touchdown last week. However, it’s unlikely Josh Rosen will have much time to look downfield on Sunday. The Chiefs defense is poor, but their one strength is getting to the quarterback with Dee Ford ranked 3rd-overall in pass rush efficiency in addition to Chris Jones and Allen Bailey both ranking top 10 among interior defensive linemen in sacks. Arizona’s offensive line, now likely without Justin Pugh, ranks last in pass blocking efficiency and Rosen is completing just 38% of his passes under pressure. The poor offensive line play persists in the ground game as David Johnson has been contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 57.4% of his rushes (3rd-most).
Sammy Watkins is dealing with a foot injury and I don’t expect him to find success across from Patrick Peterson, one of the few bright spots on the Cardinals 28th-ranked defense as he allows just 0.64 yards per cover snap (6th). Chiefs Center Mitch Morse ranked 3rd in pass blocking efficiency before suffering a concussion, but Austin Reiter has settled in well not allowing a pressure in his first two starts. Corey Peters and Robert Nkemdiche both rank in the bottom 15 in pass rush efficiency among 100 qualifying interior defensive linemen and I don’t expect them to cause much trouble for Reiter.
We’ve only seen one other spread this high in 2018 and the Vikings lost outright to the Bills before a pivotal game against the Rams. Kansas City will face the Rams next week as well. Kansas City actually applies to a negative 24-74-3 ATS big home favorite letdown situation and I’ll lean with Arizona plus the points.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
27.6
29.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
125.4%
120.8%
-
Sack Rate
20.3%
20.4%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.3%
12.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.3%
34.5%
-
NYPP
14.8
16.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
20.6
34.1
-
RB YPR
3.1
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
23.2%
25.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.2%
44.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
22.2%
52.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
48.3
63.3
-
Early Down Succ
41.6%
49.5%
-
Succ Rate
49.5%
52.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.3%
43.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
2.0%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
35.4
33.6
-
Run Ratio
48.1%
55.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.1
30.3
-
Game Control
-6.7
6.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.7
42.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
59.1%
48.4%
-
Sack Rate
3.9%
7.5%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
2.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.1%
22.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
51.8%
43.5%
-
NYPP
9.4
7.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.7
24.0
-
RB YPR
4.5
5.0
-
Stuff Rate
19.0%
18.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.0%
58.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.0%
43.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
5.1
Game
-
All Snaps
60.3
66.0
-
Early Down Succ
55.3%
53.3%
-
Succ Rate
54.4%
52.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
51.2%
44.8%
-
Yards Per Play
7.3
6.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.2%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
27.8
-
Run Ratio
42.7%
36.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.4
24.4
-
Game Control
8.3
-8.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
WAS |
6 – 24 L |
-13.7 |
700.0% / 600.0% |
100.0% / 100.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
72.5 / 82.3 |
56.3% / 46.5% |
12.5% / 25.6% |
4.3 / 4.3 |
18 / 46 |
53.7% / 50.0% |
127.8% / 82.6% |
35.0% / 47.0% |
11.9 / 9.3 |
5.6% / 2.2% |
88.9% / 93.5% |
29.3 / 18.0 |
2 |
@LA |
0 – 34 L |
-14.9 |
21.4% / 64.7% |
3.6% / 5.9% |
3.7% / 3.1% |
3.0 / 10.1 |
33.3% / 48.5% |
13.3% / 24.2% |
3.6 / 2.7 |
43 / 67 |
23.3% / 59.2% |
25.6% / 56.7% |
0.0% / 51.9% |
3.2 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.9% / 49.3% |
19.0 / 39.1 |
3 |
CHI |
14 – 16 L |
7.2 |
40.0% / 42.1% |
13.3% / 7.9% |
11.5% / 2.9% |
5.6 / 5.1 |
33.3% / 54.8% |
27.8% / 22.6% |
2.9 / 3.9 |
48 / 69 |
40.5% / 50.0% |
37.5% / 47.8% |
58.8% / 37.7% |
4.6 / 4.6 |
2.1% / 1.4% |
37.5% / 44.9% |
32.8 / 27.8 |
4 |
SEA |
17 – 20 L |
-2.0 |
42.9% / 48.1% |
3.6% / 7.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 5.9 |
39.3% / 50.0% |
35.7% / 23.5% |
3.3 / 5.0 |
56 / 61 |
40.9% / 58.0% |
41.1% / 49.2% |
54.0% / 35.6% |
4.7 / 5.4 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 55.7% |
26.4 / 35.5 |
5 |
@SF |
28 – 18 W |
6.1 |
80.0% / 71.1% |
10.0% / 10.5% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
16.4 / 7.9 |
30.8% / 50.0% |
23.1% / 29.4% |
2.3 / 4.3 |
36 / 72 |
40.0% / 45.2% |
44.4% / 61.1% |
47.1% / 41.2% |
6.2 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 4.2% |
72.2% / 47.2% |
39.7 / 22.7 |
6 |
@MIN |
17 – 27 L |
-8.0 |
37.1% / 54.1% |
11.4% / 10.8% |
3.2% / 3.0% |
5.9 / 5.8 |
40.0% / 42.4% |
30.0% / 18.2% |
3.1 / 5.9 |
55 / 70 |
48.8% / 54.7% |
38.2% / 48.6% |
41.3% / 31.3% |
4.9 / 5.9 |
1.8% / 1.4% |
36.4% / 47.1% |
25.5 / 30.9 |
7 |
DEN |
10 – 45 L |
-24.9 |
40.0% / 45.8% |
13.3% / 8.3% |
7.7% / 4.5% |
3.4 / 7.4 |
33.3% / 32.4% |
28.6% / 23.5% |
3.3 / 3.9 |
66 / 58 |
41.2% / 42.5% |
37.9% / 37.9% |
32.3% / 52.6% |
3.4 / 5.4 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
31.8% / 58.6% |
23.5 / 37.0 |
8 |
SF |
18 – 15 W |
-3.1 |
41.9% / 40.6% |
7.0% / 12.5% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 5.0 |
47.6% / 32.3% |
14.3% / 35.5% |
4.2 / 3.5 |
64 / 63 |
44.0% / 36.7% |
43.8% / 36.5% |
21.8% / 46.8% |
5.0 / 4.2 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
32.8% / 49.2% |
20.8 / 31.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@LAC |
38 – 28 W |
9.6 |
46.4% / 55.8% |
3.6% / 1.9% |
0.0% / 2.0% |
9.1 / 8.0 |
59.3% / 59.1% |
25.9% / 18.2% |
3.9 / 5.6 |
55 / 74 |
55.6% / 61.3% |
52.7% / 56.8% |
66.0% / 45.1% |
6.6 / 7.3 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
49.1% / 29.7% |
29.1 / 20.1 |
2 |
@PIT |
42 – 37 W |
9.7 |
69.0% / 50.8% |
3.4% / 1.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
11.1 / 7.2 |
44.4% / 38.5% |
14.8% / 23.1% |
4.8 / 2.5 |
56 / 74 |
63.8% / 51.7% |
57.1% / 48.6% |
56.1% / 35.2% |
8.1 / 6.4 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
48.2% / 17.6% |
30.3 / 21.8 |
3 |
SF |
38 – 27 W |
13.8 |
55.0% / 44.1% |
5.0% / 11.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.7 / 6.7 |
46.7% / 51.7% |
16.7% / 24.1% |
2.6 / 6.1 |
70 / 63 |
51.9% / 50.0% |
51.4% / 47.6% |
28.2% / 42.9% |
5.5 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.9% / 46.0% |
26.8 / 22.8 |
4 |
@DEN |
27 – 23 W |
-1.9 |
50.0% / 32.4% |
2.2% / 10.8% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
6.6 / 6.1 |
66.7% / 72.7% |
14.8% / 18.2% |
5.3 / 7.2 |
73 / 59 |
59.3% / 53.3% |
56.2% / 47.5% |
48.8% / 59.7% |
6.1 / 6.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.0% / 37.3% |
30.6 / 24.2 |
5 |
JAC |
30 – 14 W |
14.4 |
87.0% / 73.7% |
4.3% / 13.2% |
9.1% / 12.1% |
13.0 / 10.6 |
28.1% / 70.6% |
25.0% / 5.9% |
4.0 / 5.9 |
55 / 55 |
45.5% / 48.4% |
52.7% / 72.7% |
49.3% / 49.8% |
7.7 / 9.1 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
58.2% / 30.9% |
21.3 / 28.3 |
6 |
@NE |
40 – 43 L |
-5.3 |
50.0% / 48.6% |
0.0% / 5.4% |
5.6% / 0.0% |
9.8 / 8.8 |
70.6% / 64.1% |
17.6% / 15.4% |
5.5 / 4.5 |
53 / 76 |
59.5% / 60.0% |
56.6% / 56.6% |
55.4% / 44.9% |
8.4 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
32.1% / 51.3% |
39.9 / 30.6 |
7 |
CIN |
45 – 10 W |
19.4 |
61.0% / 42.9% |
4.9% / 5.7% |
2.6% / 3.0% |
8.6 / 5.0 |
51.7% / 47.4% |
10.3% / 26.3% |
6.8 / 3.4 |
70 / 54 |
54.4% / 47.6% |
57.1% / 44.4% |
52.5% / 42.3% |
7.9 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.4% / 35.2% |
24.0 / 26.6 |
8 |
DEN |
30 – 23 W |
4.5 |
50.0% / 41.0% |
5.6% / 12.8% |
2.9% / 2.9% |
8.1 / 5.7 |
33.3% / 66.7% |
16.7% / 13.3% |
2.7 / 6.3 |
54 / 69 |
46.5% / 55.4% |
44.4% / 52.2% |
42.4% / 57.7% |
6.3 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
33.3% / 43.5% |
38.0 / 23.3 |
9 |
@CLE |
37 – 21 W |
10.7 |
63.6% / 46.7% |
6.1% / 4.4% |
3.2% / 2.3% |
10.9 / 6.4 |
58.3% / 56.0% |
29.2% / 24.0% |
5.8 / 4.1 |
57 / 70 |
61.7% / 51.9% |
61.4% / 50.0% |
62.1% / 26.0% |
8.8 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.1% / 35.7% |
33.3 / 21.8 |