Arizona Cardinals @

Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Nov 11
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 267
Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -16.5, Total: 49.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Arizona (+16.5) over KANSAS CITY

Byron Leftwich got Larry Fitzgerald more involved in Arizona’s vertical passing game in his first week at offensive coordinator. Fitzgerald received just 7% of his targets 20+ yards downfield in the first 7 weeks of the season before getting 4 deep targets for 70 yards and a touchdown last week. However, it’s unlikely Josh Rosen will have much time to look downfield on Sunday. The Chiefs defense is poor, but their one strength is getting to the quarterback with Dee Ford ranked 3rd-overall in pass rush efficiency in addition to Chris Jones and Allen Bailey both ranking top 10 among interior defensive linemen in sacks. Arizona’s offensive line, now likely without Justin Pugh, ranks last in pass blocking efficiency and Rosen is completing just 38% of his passes under pressure. The poor offensive line play persists in the ground game as David Johnson has been contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 57.4% of his rushes (3rd-most).

Sammy Watkins is dealing with a foot injury and I don’t expect him to find success across from Patrick Peterson, one of the few bright spots on the Cardinals 28th-ranked defense as he allows just 0.64 yards per cover snap (6th). Chiefs Center Mitch Morse ranked 3rd in pass blocking efficiency before suffering a concussion, but Austin Reiter has settled in well not allowing a pressure in his first two starts. Corey Peters and Robert Nkemdiche both rank in the bottom 15 in pass rush efficiency among 100 qualifying interior defensive linemen and I don’t expect them to cause much trouble for Reiter.

We’ve only seen one other spread this high in 2018 and the Vikings lost outright to the Bills before a pivotal game against the Rams. Kansas City will face the Rams next week as well. Kansas City actually applies to a negative 24-74-3 ATS big home favorite letdown situation and I’ll lean with Arizona plus the points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Cardinals
  • Chiefs
AZ
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 27.6 29.1
  • Succ Pass Plays 125.4% 120.8%
  • Sack Rate 20.3% 20.4%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 20.3% 12.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 41.3% 34.5%
  • NYPP 14.8 16.2



Rush


  • Rush Plays 20.6 34.1
  • RB YPR 3.1 4.3
  • Stuff Rate 23.2% 25.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 39.2% 44.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 22.2% 52.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.4 4.2




Game

  • All Snaps 48.3 63.3
  • Early Down Succ 41.6% 49.5%
  • Succ Rate 49.5% 52.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.3% 43.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.5 5.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 2.0% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 35.4 33.6
  • Run Ratio 48.1% 55.7%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.1 30.3
  • Game Control -6.7 6.7
 
  • Points 13.8 24.9
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