Game Analysis

HOUSTON (-9.5) vs Arizona

• Houston’s defense had 18 pressures last Sunday night, tied for its most in a game this season.
• Arizona’s offense will be without starting LT Paris Johnson, who is conceding a 6.5% pressure rate. His backup Josh Fryar is allowing a 11.1% pressure rate and will struggle across from Texans edge rusher Danielle Hunter, who has 64 pressures (5th).
• Houston’s defense can get pressure without blitzing. The Texans have a 77% standard pass rush rate (2nd-highest), and they will shut down a Cardinals offense that ranks 31st relatively against a standard pass rush compared to the blitz.
• Arizona TE Trey McBride has a 62% success rate (4th), but he will be limited as Houston’s defense is allowing a league-low -0.08 EPA/target to opposing tight ends.
• Jacoby Brissett has given the injured Marvin Harrison targets to WR Michael Wilson, who had 142 yards last week. However, Harrison is averaging 0.25 EPA/target more than Wilson, and the Cardinals’ offense will improve whenever Harrison can get back on the field.
• Arizona’s defense is surrendering a league-high 65% success rate to opposing tight ends, and they will struggle against TE Dalton Schultz, who is averaging 0.28 EPA/target (7th).
• I expect CJ Stroud to feature Schultz underneath because Stroud’s yppp against cover 4 is a league-low 75% of his yppp versus other coverages, and the Cardinals have the 2nd-highest cover 4 rate.
• Our model favors the Texans by just 7.6 points, with a predicted total of 43.4 points, but Arizona applies to a very negative 17-72-3 ATS late-season situation and the matchups favor Houston. I used Houston in my spread pool.