Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Arizona (+5.5) over HOUSTON

Strong Opinion – Over (48)

· Kyler Murray proved that he clearly isn’t limited post-ACL surgery, as the took off running on 4 designed rush attempts and 2 scrambles. On one of the scrambles Murray reached 20.2 mph marking his fastest speed since 2021.

· Arizona’s offense had a 50.0% success rate against Atlanta, ranking 2nd among week 10 offenses.

· Cardinals’ breakout tight end Trey McBride has been targeted on 31.4% of his routes ranking 4th in the league and he has a favorable matchup on Sunday as Houston’s defense will likely be without both starting linebackers Henry To’oTo’o and Denzel Perryman as well as starting safety Jimmie Ward.

· CJ Stroud has been slightly worse against passive defenses like the Cardinals this season. Stroud’s yards per attempt versus zone is just 83% of his yards per attempt against man coverage (25th) and Stroud’s yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush is just 81% of his yards per attempt against the blitz (29th).

· Arizona’s defense has an 81.7% zone coverage rate (8th-highest) and a 75.7% standard pass rush rate (7th-highest).

· The Cardinals can feel more comfortable not sending extra pass rushers with the recent burst from second-round rookie edge rusher BJ Ojulari, who had 2 sacks last week on a season-high 52% earned snap share.

· Houston WR Nico Collins leads the NFL with 0.74 EPA/target and he will be back in uniform on Sunday versus CB Marco Wilson, who is surrendering 1.76 yards per cover snap (2nd-worst).

· Our model favors the Texans by just 3.2 points, with a predicted total of 50.7 points.

Arizona is a 1-Star Best Bet at +4.5 or more (Strong Opinion at +4) and the Over is a Strong Opinion at 49 points or less.