Game Analysis
Lean – Arizona (+14) over GREEN BAY
Green Bay’s season is likely over, even if they win-out, after a crucial loss in Minnesota last week. Aaron Rodgers was sacked 3 times in the second half, which halted any potential comeback, Rodgers and Tramon Williams muffed a punt for good measure. And, our Best Bet on the Packers went from a potential back-door cover to a loss when Rodgers missed a wide open receiver in the endzone, which is very rare for him.
Packers’ Backup left tackle Jason Spriggs conceded a sack and 2 pressures in just 10 pass blocking snaps as David Bakhtiari dealt with a knee injury. It looks like Bakhtiari, 9th in pass blocking efficiency, will play in this game and his presence will be vital limiting Chandler Jones, whose 11 sacks are 4th-most in the NFL. Arizona’s defense is allowing just 5.5 yards per play (9th) but they may be overrated because they’ve been trailing so often opponents aren’t as aggressive and the Cardinals rank 26th in success rate allowed, which is more telling.
Green Bay’s defense is surrendering 0.2 yards per play more since trading Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and now the Packers are without their top pass rusher, Mike Daniels. Arizona has the worst offensive line in the league, but Green Bay’s front is sub-par without Daniels and they may not be able to take advantage. Josh Rosen should be in line for a solid game versus the Packers young cornerbacks.
The advanced spread for this game was Packers -11.5 and it’s moved because of Arizona’s putrid performance against the Chargers last week where they were outgained by 3 yards per play. Our model favors Green Bay by 15.1 points but Arizona applies to a 110-39-1 ATS situation (among others) and I’ll lean with the Cardinals.
Snow is in the forecast on Sunday, but it’s worth noting people generally overestimate its impact unless we see something crazy like Buffalo in week 14 last year. Snow games are 25-14-1 to the over since 2000. Our model projects 46.1 points and if we see this total drop significantly on Sunday morning due to snow, we’ll know the move isn’t warranted and would then consider a play on the over.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
29.2
31.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
91.4%
93.5%
-
Sack Rate
15.5%
16.0%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.4%
13.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.5%
31.5%
-
NYPP
10.9
12.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.9
32.0
-
RB YPR
3.4
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
22.8%
24.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.8%
47.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
27.9%
51.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
52.1
63.5
-
Early Down Succ
40.8%
52.2%
-
Succ Rate
45.0%
52.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
35.9%
40.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
32.9
32.3
-
Run Ratio
47.7%
51.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.0
30.4
-
Game Control
-6.1
6.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.2
35.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.9%
47.0%
-
Sack Rate
8.2%
8.8%
-
Int Rate
0.4%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.4%
20.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.8%
46.5%
-
NYPP
6.7
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.0
28.6
-
RB YPR
4.6
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
17.8%
17.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.9%
47.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.1%
38.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
62.2
63.8
-
Early Down Succ
51.3%
49.2%
-
Succ Rate
49.2%
46.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.3%
44.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
28.9
-
Run Ratio
35.4%
45.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.0
29.6
-
Game Control
0.3
-0.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
WAS |
6 – 24 L |
-13.7 |
700.0% /
600.0% |
100.0% /
100.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
72.5 /
82.3 |
56.3% /
46.5% |
12.5% /
25.6% |
4.3 /
4.3 |
18 /
46 |
53.7% /
50.0% |
127.8% /
82.6% |
35.0% /
47.0% |
11.9 /
9.3 |
5.6% /
2.2% |
88.9% /
93.5% |
29.3 /
18.0 |
| 2 |
@LA |
0 – 34 L |
-14.9 |
21.4% /
64.7% |
3.6% /
5.9% |
3.7% /
3.1% |
3.0 /
10.1 |
33.3% /
48.5% |
13.3% /
24.2% |
3.6 /
2.7 |
43 /
67 |
23.3% /
59.2% |
25.6% /
56.7% |
0.0% /
51.9% |
3.2 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.9% /
49.3% |
19.0 /
39.1 |
| 3 |
CHI |
14 – 16 L |
7.2 |
40.0% /
42.1% |
13.3% /
7.9% |
11.5% /
2.9% |
5.6 /
5.1 |
33.3% /
54.8% |
27.8% /
22.6% |
2.9 /
3.9 |
48 /
69 |
40.5% /
50.0% |
37.5% /
47.8% |
58.8% /
37.7% |
4.6 /
4.6 |
2.1% /
1.4% |
37.5% /
44.9% |
32.8 /
27.8 |
| 4 |
SEA |
17 – 20 L |
-2.0 |
42.9% /
48.1% |
3.6% /
7.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
5.9 |
39.3% /
50.0% |
35.7% /
23.5% |
3.3 /
5.0 |
56 /
61 |
40.9% /
58.0% |
41.1% /
49.2% |
54.0% /
35.6% |
4.7 /
5.4 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
55.7% |
26.4 /
35.5 |
| 5 |
@SF |
28 – 18 W |
6.1 |
80.0% /
71.1% |
10.0% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
16.4 /
7.9 |
30.8% /
50.0% |
23.1% /
29.4% |
2.3 /
4.3 |
36 /
72 |
40.0% /
45.2% |
44.4% /
61.1% |
47.1% /
41.2% |
6.2 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
4.2% |
72.2% /
47.2% |
39.7 /
22.7 |
| 6 |
@MIN |
17 – 27 L |
-8.0 |
37.1% /
54.1% |
11.4% /
10.8% |
3.2% /
3.0% |
5.9 /
5.8 |
40.0% /
42.4% |
30.0% /
18.2% |
3.1 /
5.9 |
55 /
70 |
48.8% /
54.7% |
38.2% /
48.6% |
41.3% /
31.3% |
4.9 /
5.9 |
1.8% /
1.4% |
36.4% /
47.1% |
25.5 /
30.9 |
| 7 |
DEN |
10 – 45 L |
-24.9 |
40.0% /
45.8% |
13.3% /
8.3% |
7.7% /
4.5% |
3.4 /
7.4 |
33.3% /
32.4% |
28.6% /
23.5% |
3.3 /
3.9 |
66 /
58 |
41.2% /
42.5% |
37.9% /
37.9% |
32.3% /
52.6% |
3.4 /
5.4 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
31.8% /
58.6% |
23.5 /
37.0 |
| 8 |
SF |
18 – 15 W |
-3.1 |
41.9% /
40.6% |
7.0% /
12.5% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
5.0 |
47.6% /
32.3% |
14.3% /
35.5% |
4.2 /
3.5 |
64 /
63 |
44.0% /
36.7% |
43.8% /
36.5% |
21.8% /
46.8% |
5.0 /
4.2 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
32.8% /
49.2% |
20.8 /
31.1 |
| 10 |
@KC |
14 – 26 L |
-8.0 |
36.4% /
54.5% |
11.4% /
15.2% |
5.1% /
0.0% |
3.8 /
6.4 |
57.7% /
45.8% |
7.7% /
33.3% |
3.7 /
5.0 |
70 /
57 |
44.2% /
56.8% |
44.3% /
50.9% |
34.1% /
58.3% |
3.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.1% /
42.1% |
23.7 /
36.2 |
| 11 |
OAK |
21 – 23 L |
-1.4 |
33.3% /
48.5% |
4.8% /
12.1% |
10.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
5.2 |
41.9% /
60.6% |
32.3% /
15.2% |
5.0 /
4.6 |
52 /
66 |
42.5% /
60.8% |
38.5% /
54.5% |
43.3% /
47.4% |
5.4 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
59.6% /
50.0% |
29.6 /
29.9 |
| 12 |
@LAC |
10 – 45 L |
-12.8 |
38.1% /
63.9% |
9.5% /
11.1% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
6.6 |
28.0% /
59.4% |
24.0% /
12.5% |
2.5 /
5.6 |
46 /
68 |
35.5% /
67.9% |
32.6% /
61.8% |
32.0% /
38.7% |
3.3 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
54.3% /
47.1% |
32.6 /
36.2 |
| 13 |
@GB |
20 – 17 W |
0.1 |
35.7% /
49.0% |
7.1% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
4.5 |
43.3% /
56.5% |
13.3% /
26.1% |
6.1 /
4.3 |
58 /
74 |
41.9% /
56.9% |
39.7% /
51.4% |
59.5% /
13.8% |
5.4 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.7% /
31.1% |
24.9 /
25.6 |
| 14 |
DET |
3 – 17 L |
-4.3 |
40.9% /
33.3% |
6.8% /
4.2% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
4.0 |
19.0% /
41.9% |
33.3% /
32.3% |
2.9 /
3.9 |
65 /
55 |
33.3% /
39.5% |
33.8% /
38.2% |
7.2% /
18.3% |
4.3 /
4.0 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
32.3% /
56.4% |
23.2 /
25.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CHI |
24 – 23 W |
-9.5 |
43.9% /
35.9% |
9.8% /
10.3% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
4.0 |
27.8% /
59.3% |
16.7% /
18.5% |
3.8 /
5.1 |
59 /
66 |
40.0% /
48.9% |
39.0% /
45.5% |
59.5% /
38.1% |
6.3 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
30.5% /
40.9% |
30.7 /
25.7 |
| 2 |
MIN |
29 – 29 T |
6.3 |
48.9% /
56.0% |
8.9% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
5.6 /
8.2 |
54.2% /
44.4% |
25.0% /
5.6% |
4.1 /
3.8 |
69 /
68 |
55.4% /
53.7% |
50.7% /
52.9% |
31.3% /
44.4% |
5.1 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
26.5% |
29.9 /
26.5 |
| 3 |
@WAS |
17 – 31 L |
-12.0 |
34.7% /
50.0% |
8.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
4.9 /
11.0 |
64.7% /
32.4% |
11.8% /
10.8% |
5.9 /
4.5 |
66 /
57 |
42.9% /
40.5% |
42.4% /
38.6% |
35.9% /
60.1% |
5.2 /
6.8 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
25.8% /
64.9% |
26.4 /
30.8 |
| 4 |
BUF |
22 – 0 W |
12.8 |
47.6% /
27.5% |
4.8% /
17.5% |
2.5% /
6.1% |
6.7 /
2.2 |
56.3% /
43.8% |
37.5% /
25.0% |
4.4 /
3.6 |
74 /
56 |
50.0% /
37.5% |
51.4% /
32.1% |
49.6% /
31.0% |
5.7 /
2.6 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
43.2% /
28.6% |
27.4 /
27.3 |
| 5 |
@DET |
23 – 31 L |
-13.9 |
80.6% /
52.9% |
11.1% /
17.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.8 /
10.0 |
52.4% /
34.5% |
9.5% /
27.6% |
4.7 /
3.3 |
57 /
46 |
55.6% /
32.6% |
70.2% /
41.3% |
41.2% /
37.7% |
9.2 /
5.8 |
5.3% /
0.0% |
36.8% /
63.0% |
20.5 /
46.1 |
| 6 |
SF |
33 – 30 W |
-1.4 |
37.5% /
52.0% |
6.3% /
8.0% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
8.4 /
9.1 |
52.4% /
66.7% |
14.3% /
13.3% |
5.5 /
5.8 |
69 /
55 |
44.4% /
67.4% |
42.0% /
60.0% |
55.5% /
54.1% |
7.6 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
30.4% /
54.5% |
32.0 /
25.9 |
| 8 |
@LA |
27 – 29 L |
2.6 |
45.5% /
43.9% |
9.1% /
12.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
6.9 |
63.2% /
42.9% |
21.1% /
28.6% |
5.6 /
3.9 |
52 /
76 |
58.1% /
43.6% |
51.9% /
43.4% |
69.4% /
51.3% |
6.9 /
5.5 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
36.5% /
46.1% |
21.1 /
31.7 |
| 9 |
@NE |
17 – 31 L |
-5.1 |
47.7% /
55.3% |
2.3% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
8.2 |
60.0% /
47.1% |
12.0% /
20.6% |
4.7 /
3.7 |
69 /
72 |
54.5% /
61.1% |
52.2% /
51.4% |
36.4% /
55.1% |
5.3 /
6.1 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
36.2% /
47.2% |
19.3 /
29.2 |
| 10 |
MIA |
31 – 12 W |
9.9 |
50.0% /
37.2% |
6.7% /
14.0% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
6.1 /
3.8 |
50.0% /
56.5% |
10.7% /
13.0% |
7.1 /
5.7 |
58 /
66 |
58.5% /
45.8% |
50.0% /
43.9% |
54.5% /
38.1% |
6.6 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
48.3% /
34.8% |
35.7 /
31.4 |
| 11 |
@SEA |
24 – 27 L |
4.5 |
45.7% /
44.1% |
14.3% /
8.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
6.0 |
38.5% /
47.4% |
15.4% /
7.9% |
3.7 /
4.6 |
48 /
72 |
48.6% /
48.0% |
43.8% /
45.8% |
55.2% /
42.5% |
7.5 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
27.1% /
52.8% |
30.4 /
22.3 |
| 12 |
@MIN |
17 – 24 L |
-1.9 |
46.9% /
64.1% |
12.5% /
5.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
8.3 |
52.6% /
29.0% |
15.8% /
19.4% |
4.3 /
3.0 |
51 /
70 |
57.5% /
52.9% |
49.0% /
48.6% |
37.4% /
42.1% |
5.0 /
6.0 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
44.3% |
26.6 /
35.6 |
| 13 |
ARI |
17 – 20 L |
-0.1 |
49.0% /
35.7% |
2.0% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.5 /
4.8 |
56.5% /
43.3% |
26.1% /
13.3% |
4.3 /
6.1 |
74 /
58 |
56.9% /
41.9% |
51.4% /
39.7% |
13.8% /
59.5% |
4.4 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.1% /
51.7% |
25.6 /
24.9 |
| 14 |
ATL |
34 – 20 W |
12.3 |
44.4% /
56.8% |
11.1% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
4.5 /
5.4 |
46.2% /
66.7% |
15.4% /
20.8% |
5.3 /
4.5 |
62 /
68 |
44.7% /
66.0% |
45.2% /
60.3% |
48.8% /
20.3% |
4.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
41.9% /
35.3% |
25.9 /
27.8 |
Arizona Cardinals
@ 
Green Bay Packers