Game Analysis

Note: A lean was posted on Cleveland on Thursday when the line was -9. The Browns are now favored by 13, so obviously no longer a lean at that number.

Lean – CLEVELAND (-9) vs Arizona

· The Cardinals traded Joshua Dobbs with the impending return of Kyler Murray, but this week it will be rookie Clayton Tune making a bridge start at quarterback versus a Browns defense allowing -0.01 EPA/dropback (3rd).

· The fifth-round rookie is likely to be about 2 points worse than Dobbs, who was averaging 5.1 yppp (28th) and leading all quarterbacks with 11.9 yards per scramble. Dobbs’ mobility also enabled him to have only a 16% pressure-to-sack rate (12th). Tune can run too, as he ran for 692 yards on 104 runs last season at the University of Houston.

· Arizona tight end Trey McBride is averaging 2.09 yards per route run (2nd) but he will be shut down as Cleveland’s defense is conceding a league-low 25% success rate to tight ends.

· Browns head coach Kevin Stefaski’s offense is averaging 17% more yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush than the blitz this year (4th-largest gap) and backup quarterback PJ Walker or Deshaun Watson will have a favorable matchup against a Cardinals defense with a 75.4% standard pass rush rate (8th-highest).

· Cleveland All-Pro RT Jack Conklin suffered a season-ending ACL tear in week 1 and backup Dawand Jones has been solid ranking 14th in pass-blocking efficiency. However, Jones could be sidelined this week and the pass protection would be flimsy with third-string tackle James Hudson on the field.

· The Browns will look to use the ground game ranking 6th by our numbers as Arizona’s defense is surrendering a league-high 47.9% rush success rate.

· Our model makes Cleveland a 9.4-point favorite with Deshaun Watson upgraded to probable for the Browns, with a predicted total of 39.6 points, and the matchups favor the Browns. The line move into double-digits also triggered a 64-16-4 ATS double-digit home favorite situation that applies to the Browns. At -13 I think the game is a toss-up.