Game Analysis
The Falcons are coming off a loss and a bye and suddenly find themselves in a tight NFC South race, where they have only a 1-game lead. Despite losing the game to Philadelphia before the bye, Matt Ryan continued to perform at a high level, throwing for 7.3 NYPP as he has the Falcons as the number 1 passing team based on adjusted NYPP (8.3 NYPP). Matty Ice will face a difficult test as he faces the #3 pass defense in the league in Arizona. Although the two other times he faced top ranked defenses this season(Broncos and Seahawks), the Falcons put up 23 and 24 points while Ryan averaged 7.5 NYPP in those bouts.
The Cardinals’ Carson Palmer has continued to be unable to get the passing game going, having his worst statistical season in 7 years, although the red birds may find an easier time going against a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in success rate allowed (50.7%). The high scoring teams have continued to outpace the market as OVER teams have been able to surpass the high Totals set as any game that has a Total of OVER (47) or higher has cashed at a 59% rate. The advanced stats model shows value on the dirty birds and Over, so Falcons (-4) and OVER (50.5) are Strong Opinions.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
44.3
35.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.2%
40.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
7.4%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.1%
18.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.6%
42.2%
-
NYPP
5.9
5.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.9
27.1
-
RB YPR
4.0
2.8
-
Stuff Rate
25.5%
25.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.4%
39.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.5%
34.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
71.2
62.7
-
Early Down Succ
48.3%
42.8%
-
Succ Rate
46.5%
40.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.7%
42.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
4.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
27.8
-
Run Ratio
37.6%
43.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.1
27.4
-
Game Control
0.1
-0.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.1
44.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.6%
52.8%
-
Sack Rate
6.6%
5.2%
-
Int Rate
1.4%
1.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.6%
16.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
48.6%
33.3%
-
NYPP
8.3
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.8
25.7
-
RB YPR
4.0
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
25.5%
17.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.7%
47.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
47.3%
34.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
62.9
69.8
-
Early Down Succ
51.0%
54.0%
-
Succ Rate
47.5%
50.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
49.1%
34.7%
-
Yards Per Play
6.6
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.4
24.2
-
Run Ratio
40.5%
36.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.6
27.4
-
Game Control
3.6
-3.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
NE |
21 – 23 L |
-5.0 |
50.0% / 51.4% |
7.5% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 7.3 |
57.9% / 31.3% |
15.8% / 34.4% |
4.8 / 3.3 |
59 / 67 |
53.2% / 36.7% |
52.5% / 41.8% |
38.1% / 45.9% |
5.8 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 3.0% |
32.2% / 47.8% |
29.2 / 24.7 |
2 |
TB |
40 – 7 W |
16.6 |
50.0% / 40.0% |
2.8% / 5.5% |
0.0% / 7.7% |
8.8 / 4.0 |
34.5% / 40.9% |
20.7% / 22.7% |
3.5 / 3.9 |
65 / 77 |
43.1% / 42.6% |
43.1% / 40.3% |
55.0% / 19.5% |
6.4 / 4.0 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
44.6% / 28.6% |
28.8 / 25.7 |
3 |
@BUF |
18 – 34 L |
-12.1 |
40.0% / 27.6% |
9.1% / 13.8% |
8.0% / 4.0% |
4.7 / 3.0 |
40.9% / 51.4% |
31.8% / 25.7% |
4.0 / 6.0 |
77 / 64 |
42.6% / 47.8% |
40.3% / 40.6% |
27.0% / 80.9% |
4.5 / 4.7 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
28.6% / 54.7% |
32.3 / 33.8 |
4 |
LA |
13 – 17 L |
-1.3 |
44.9% / 40.6% |
6.1% / 6.3% |
6.5% / 0.0% |
6.2 / 7.7 |
40.0% / 12.5% |
24.0% / 29.2% |
4.7 / 1.8 |
74 / 56 |
42.6% / 25.6% |
43.2% / 28.6% |
44.5% / 68.9% |
5.7 / 5.2 |
2.7% / 1.8% |
33.8% / 42.9% |
27.2 / 30.3 |
5 |
@SF |
33 – 21 W |
4.9 |
34.5% / 42.1% |
3.4% / 18.4% |
0.0% / 6.5% |
4.0 / 3.6 |
53.8% / 66.7% |
15.4% / 19.4% |
4.5 / 4.2 |
68 / 74 |
54.2% / 59.3% |
45.6% / 54.1% |
52.4% / 24.1% |
4.3 / 3.9 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
57.4% / 48.6% |
39.9 / 18.3 |
6 |
NYJ |
28 – 3 W |
12.2 |
60.0% / 39.5% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 5.4% |
6.4 / 5.2 |
40.5% / 21.4% |
29.7% / 21.4% |
4.7 / 2.4 |
72 / 52 |
52.6% / 40.5% |
50.0% / 34.6% |
27.9% / 25.7% |
5.5 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
51.4% / 26.9% |
25.7 / 20.9 |
7 |
SEA |
6 – 6 T |
1.7 |
43.4% / 34.2% |
7.5% / 2.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 5.4 |
54.1% / 36.8% |
24.3% / 31.6% |
3.6 / 2.7 |
90 / 57 |
47.8% / 39.5% |
47.8% / 35.1% |
33.4% / 26.5% |
4.9 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.1% / 33.3% |
28.5 / 25.1 |
8 |
@CAR |
20 – 30 L |
-15.7 |
51.9% / 42.9% |
14.8% / 3.6% |
2.2% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 7.4 |
50.0% / 52.8% |
40.0% / 22.2% |
2.4 / 3.9 |
64 / 64 |
54.9% / 50.0% |
51.6% / 48.4% |
12.4% / 48.1% |
5.3 / 5.5 |
1.6% / 1.6% |
15.6% / 56.3% |
24.0 / 34.1 |
10 |
SF |
23 – 20 W |
6.5 |
52.0% / 45.5% |
4.0% / 9.1% |
4.2% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 6.0 |
34.8% / 39.3% |
39.1% / 28.6% |
3.5 / 3.0 |
73 / 61 |
44.1% / 41.9% |
46.6% / 42.6% |
40.6% / 53.7% |
6.1 / 4.6 |
2.7% / 1.6% |
31.5% / 45.9% |
23.2 / 30.5 |
11 |
@MIN |
24 – 30 L |
-6.4 |
35.7% / 43.3% |
9.5% / 6.7% |
5.3% / 0.0% |
3.7 / 4.8 |
57.1% / 40.0% |
14.3% / 24.0% |
4.8 / 2.9 |
70 / 55 |
48.2% / 43.6% |
44.3% / 41.8% |
35.5% / 29.4% |
4.1 / 4.0 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
40.0% / 45.5% |
32.6 / 30.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
TB |
24 – 31 L |
-4.7 |
50.0% / 57.6% |
7.1% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 3.0% |
7.7 / 8.5 |
30.4% / 28.1% |
30.4% / 21.9% |
2.3 / 2.9 |
65 / 65 |
50.0% / 51.0% |
43.1% / 43.1% |
43.2% / 48.3% |
5.8 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.4% / 49.2% |
30.8 / 23.8 |
2 |
@OAK |
35 – 28 W |
2.8 |
65.7% / 58.7% |
2.9% / 2.2% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
11.1 / 6.5 |
51.7% / 60.0% |
13.8% / 8.0% |
4.8 / 6.2 |
64 / 71 |
61.1% / 63.2% |
59.4% / 59.2% |
50.2% / 30.8% |
8.3 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
45.3% / 35.2% |
28.2 / 19.3 |
3 |
@NO |
45 – 32 W |
7.9 |
59.4% / 50.0% |
6.3% / 3.6% |
0.0% / 1.9% |
7.0 / 6.4 |
48.5% / 56.5% |
9.1% / 4.3% |
6.6 / 5.0 |
65 / 79 |
57.1% / 51.6% |
53.8% / 51.9% |
49.8% / 49.6% |
6.8 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
50.8% / 29.1% |
32.6 / 23.8 |
4 |
CAR |
48 – 33 W |
11.4 |
57.5% / 53.1% |
7.5% / 2.0% |
2.7% / 4.2% |
12.0 / 6.7 |
37.0% / 46.7% |
33.3% / 26.7% |
3.4 / 3.3 |
67 / 64 |
50.0% / 53.2% |
49.3% / 51.6% |
63.0% / 36.0% |
8.6 / 5.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.3% / 23.4% |
20.9 / 23.9 |
5 |
@DEN |
23 – 16 W |
11.1 |
36.7% / 40.0% |
6.7% / 15.0% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
8.3 / 4.6 |
45.5% / 50.0% |
27.3% / 16.7% |
3.7 / 3.5 |
63 / 64 |
47.8% / 45.5% |
41.3% / 43.8% |
56.8% / 13.5% |
5.9 / 4.2 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
52.4% / 37.5% |
32.7 / 25.0 |
6 |
@SEA |
24 – 26 L |
-2.4 |
45.7% / 60.5% |
8.7% / 2.6% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 6.9 |
44.4% / 41.9% |
22.2% / 16.1% |
2.9 / 2.4 |
64 / 69 |
49.0% / 63.3% |
45.3% / 52.2% |
40.9% / 20.8% |
5.7 / 4.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
28.1% / 44.9% |
21.0 / 37.4 |
7 |
SD |
30 – 33 L |
4.5 |
44.7% / 53.1% |
10.5% / 8.2% |
2.9% / 2.2% |
6.7 / 7.1 |
46.2% / 46.4% |
30.8% / 25.0% |
5.0 / 2.8 |
64 / 77 |
46.0% / 50.9% |
45.3% / 50.6% |
44.6% / 38.6% |
6.0 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.6% / 36.4% |
33.2 / 25.8 |
8 |
GB |
33 – 32 W |
-1.2 |
59.5% / 48.8% |
5.4% / 7.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
7.5 / 5.4 |
40.0% / 47.4% |
25.0% / 21.1% |
4.6 / 5.7 |
57 / 60 |
55.6% / 46.9% |
52.6% / 48.3% |
29.9% / 48.3% |
6.5 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
35.1% / 31.7% |
30.9 / 30.4 |
9 |
@TB |
43 – 28 W |
9.5 |
61.1% / 58.8% |
5.6% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.0 / 6.3 |
47.2% / 47.4% |
25.0% / 26.3% |
3.8 / 3.8 |
72 / 70 |
56.9% / 55.6% |
54.2% / 55.7% |
52.9% / 21.7% |
6.4 / 5.7 |
1.4% / 2.9% |
50.0% / 27.1% |
34.8 / 30.6 |
10 |
@PHI |
15 – 24 L |
-2.7 |
25.7% / 47.4% |
5.7% / 5.3% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
7.3 / 5.8 |
46.2% / 53.7% |
38.5% / 9.8% |
3.7 / 5.1 |
48 / 79 |
36.1% / 59.3% |
31.3% / 50.6% |
59.7% / 39.4% |
6.3 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
27.1% / 51.9% |
31.3 / 33.8 |