Arizona Cardinals @

Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Nov 27
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 259
Odds: Atlanta Falcons -4, Total: 50.5

Game Analysis

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The Falcons are coming off a loss and a bye and suddenly find themselves in a tight NFC South race, where they have only a 1-game lead.  Despite losing the game to Philadelphia before the bye, Matt Ryan continued to perform at a high level, throwing for 7.3 NYPP as he has the Falcons as the number 1 passing team based on adjusted NYPP (8.3 NYPP).  Matty Ice will face a difficult test as he faces the #3 pass defense in the league in Arizona.  Although the two other times he faced top ranked defenses this season(Broncos and Seahawks), the Falcons put up 23 and 24 points while Ryan averaged 7.5 NYPP in those bouts.

The Cardinals’ Carson Palmer has continued to be unable to get the passing game going, having his worst statistical season in 7 years, although the red birds may find an easier time going against a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in success rate allowed (50.7%).   The high scoring teams have continued to outpace the market as OVER teams have been able to surpass the high Totals set as any game that has a Total of OVER (47) or higher has cashed at a 59% rate.  The advanced stats model shows value on the dirty birds and Over, so Falcons (-4) and OVER (50.5) are Strong Opinions.

 

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Cardinals
  • Falcons
AZ
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 44.3 35.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.2% 40.7%
  • Sack Rate 6.5% 7.4%
  • Int Rate 2.6% 2.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.1% 18.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 34.6% 42.2%
  • NYPP 5.9 5.5



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.9 27.1
  • RB YPR 4.0 2.8
  • Stuff Rate 25.5% 25.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 46.4% 39.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 39.5% 34.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.0 3.4




Game

  • All Snaps 71.2 62.7
  • Early Down Succ 48.3% 42.8%
  • Succ Rate 46.5% 40.8%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.7% 42.3%
  • Yards Per Play 5.3 4.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.5 27.8
  • Run Ratio 37.6% 43.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.1 27.4
  • Game Control 0.1 -0.1
 
  • Points 22.6 19.1
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